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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
No help for the wildfires in CA with a pattern like that.
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Does the delay in the Arctic ocean refreeze and early melt out have anything to do with it? By weakening the PV maybe?
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@Webberweather53 @GaWx or anybody else that has access and knowledge to quickly pull records, how often does a cold November lead to a torch of a winter? I know this decade that's been the case. I'm just wondering going way back if a cold November is a curse for winter? I would think overall it wouldn't matter much and we've just had bad luck this decade. I hope as stated above we don't burn up all the fuel early.
pcbjr
Member
More meant the kind of 92 octane that burns and runs a deep breathing V8 on a banked race track ... the tank can only hold so much fuel, and once it's spent ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 1895-2019 Nov to DJF temp anomaly correlation for the SE US climate region is +0.27, not statistically significant or negative, meaning that cold Novembers tend to be associated w/ cold DJFs but this result is not significant whatsoever. Limiting the period to only modern years (like post 1979 for ex), or to ENSO phase, the correlation is still positive but even smaller meaning the idea that cold Novembers = warm DJF is almost certainly not true.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Perhaps, but it's more likely that changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns that are simultaneously also forcing changes in sea ice are responsible.
You have to start to wonder if this ridging in the Pacific is an intraseasonal feature or will will see it in some form through a good part of winter? Its been in play now in the means for at least the last 30 days doesn't mean things can't quickly reverse as we move further into winter but it's interesting.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Holy hell! 18z GFS puts us in the deep freezer next week.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Me either which begs the question, does it set up in a favorable position for us this year or do we eventually start dropping crap into the NW and down the west coast?
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Through hr 210 GEFS looks much better. The trough at H5 digs much more compared to 12z.
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
pcbjr
Member
p13 at 18Z and Larry needs to rent a boat ...Through hr 210 GEFS looks much better. The trough at H5 digs much more compared to 12z.
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
pcbjr
Member
Could have gotten some single digit lows had we held off til January..maybe even some low 20’s down to Phil..*sigh*
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's definitely a good question. Constructing a SST-based analog...
...I think we're definitely screwed in December. Amazingly, the Dec blowtorch signal actually got stronger when you removed the strong El Ninos from the composite.
Rip.
Fwiw, January in this analog composite was colder than normal, no signal in February, & March was really cold.
I wouldn't be mad if that December analog was right. A half a degree above average is much better than some years.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's not horrible at least. Are there any odds that we could actually go against analogs and be cooler?