Pattern Nippy November

[WxBlue]

This is a formidable arctic airmass even by January standards, much less mid-November.

Thanks for these charts above! Sad to see the cutback in snow amounts, but expected as we get closer.

Living in New Hampshire really messed with my perspective of what's "cold" here in North Carolina because I kept feeling "meh" seeing these cold temps... then NWS GSP pointed out that we're having January-level of cold. I forgot how impressive teens/20s can be here in Carolinas.

 

[DopplerWx]

Thanks for these charts above! Sad to see the cutback in snow amounts, but expected as we get closer.

Living in New Hampshire really messed with my perspective of what's "cold" here in North Carolina because I kept feeling "meh" seeing these cold temps... then NWS GSP pointed out that we're having January-level of cold. I forgot how impressive teens/20s can be here in Carolinas.

so i take it you will think we are all crazy when we argue over a half inch of snow fluctuations on models runs this winter.

 

[ForsythSnow]

EPS support has nearly evaporated for both storms in KCLT.

View attachment 25661

I see the EPS is way snowier for parts of GA though, mostly northern counties but still. At least that's what I can tell.

 

[accu35]

Do we have any eps snow members?

 

[Rosie]

I see the EPS is way snowier for parts of GA though, mostly northern counties but still. At least that's what I can tell.

Snow in my forecast from NWS.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Snow in my forecast from NWS.

Same for here in a WNC too.

 

[accu35]

My forecast is calling for freezing rain Wednesday night low at 30 after being around 25 Tuesday night.

 

[wxdaniel]

You got an ensemble chart for KRDU or KGSO? I still need to figure out if I want to pull the trigger on paying for weathermodels (dot) com in aftermath of Pivotal Weather going live with free Euro data.

I like weatherbell maps service myself


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[SWVAwxfan]

Snow in my forecast for next week.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Snow in my forecast from NWS.

Makes sense as the EPS has your area with most members showing something.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Makes sense as the EPS has your area with most members showing something.

For it to be November I am getting excited about our chances. I’m sure to be let down but at least it’s fun to track potential

 

[Ollie Williams]

FWIW the SS energy is much slower on the GFS at 18z. Ns a bit faster as well.

 

[accu35]

Well the second storm just went to crap on 18z gfs. Or just slower

 

[Ilovesnow28]

The back and forth with these models continues...as for as i know we don't know what's going to happen

 

[SD]

The euro is a little interesting with the phase and the pocket of cold 850s on the west and southwest side of the system. A few areas might be lucky enough to change to a period of wet snow if it occurred. Can't say that im not rooting for a cmc like solution where the northern wave is stronger and there is no phase but you get a late bloomer along the coast

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[Tarheel1]

Well toss that run of the GFS! That gulf low, 1 of looks like maybe 2, develops in the central gulf and moves due South! GFS doing GFS things! If it’s close to being right, there’s still a potential storm and it’s just super supressed

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

 

[NoSnowATL]

View attachment 25669

It just got serious!


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[Weatherlover92]

That was a good one too. Got 6ins of wet heavy snow and was under

This is really out of character for GB.??

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

I didn’t post the whole thing but he said “it’s going to be one of those winters”

 

[Showmeyourtds]

View attachment 25669

This was foolish, IMO. Cannot think of a reason to do this.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

This was foolish, IMO. Cannot think of a reason to do this.

I can’t either. He did say in his winter outlook he expects a good bit of snow.

 

[ForsythSnow]

This was foolish, IMO. Cannot think of a reason to do this.

Maybe because the mountains are in the viewing area. Him saying massive is weird.

 

[accu35]

 

[NoSnowATL]

Maybe because the mountains are in the viewing area. Him saying massive is weird.

It also gets eyes on the tv next week or maybe he sees something we don’t, with his experience I’m guessing he might have seen a system like this before and wants to get in front of it. JUST IN CASE.


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[NorthGaWinter4]

It also gets eyes on the tv next week or maybe he sees something we don’t, with his experience I’m guessing he might have seen a system like this before and wants to get in front of it. JUST IN CASE.


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I think this is his reasoning imo

 

[jackendrickwx]

View attachment 25669

Glenn, my guy, what are you doing?

 

[avlsnow]

Not liking how the 12k nam is looking for Tuesday. It doesn’t bring the cold air down for snow as fast as the gfs. This may be the more accurate scenario.

 

[Windergawx]

I think this is his reasoning imo

 

[accu35]

Not liking how the 12k nam is looking for Tuesday. It doesn’t bring the cold air down for snow as fast as the gfs. This may be the more accurate scenario.

Cause it's the long range Nam

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs only seems to be getting better for that second wave associated with that Shortwave near Mexico, speeds up just a tiny tiny bit more, and that NE trof digs a bit more, still probably lots of members with cold rain and it appears barely any snow, but it’s getting closer. Climo don’t help except for typical CAD areas around I-40/western NC

 

[malak05]

Got to love long range NAM... out of nowhere looking juicer and more timing friendly to tease you to look for trends

 

[Jessy89]

Tuesday will be a good snow for mountains probably 3-5 inches nc/tn border


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[Fountainguy97]

Got to love long range NAM... out of nowhere looking juicer and more timing friendly to tease you to look for trends

Ah yes the good old way too amped long range NAM. It’s pulled us in many times only to trend drier than dryer lint in a 20 year old drying machine.

 

[Shawn]

Careful with the NAM maps of simulated reflectivity. They can be quite deceptive. Doesn't mean any of that is reaching the ground, etc.

 

[Fountainguy97]

???

could it be my first flakes of 2019-2020?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Careful with the NAM maps of simulated reflectivity. They can be quite deceptive. Doesn't mean any of that is reaching the ground, etc.

The column seems to support enough saturation for snow and actually shows a few inches.

 

[accu35]

 

[accu35]

 

[Golf7575]

Hi ladies and gentlemen. I have one question and hopefully someone will answer. The AAM has been negative, which coincides with niña esque type pattern. What is needed to flip the AAM to neutal or even positive, if that will increase chances for colder weather moving forward? Thanks in advance.