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Pattern Nippy November

LovingGulfLows said:
Wow and that mean looks further south than the Euro. That could definitely hammer someone in the south.
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9 days out is an eternity for an upper level low, certainly a legit chance we see one but predictability will be much lower than normal if one actually transpires.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS definitely seems to be on board with the idea of a cut-off in the extended. This could turn into a really long week...

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Nice look if you want a big dog winter storm, CAA from that confluence in SE Canada, ridging over top that ULL, very nice pacific pattern to go along with that, Aleutian low can really make good things happen, but it’s interesting that even the GEFS is latching on to it aswell, not often you see model support for some as wacky as a ULL until you get under hour 150, maybe this Aleutian low can last Into December, if it does boy oh boy 8A5E7393-07D4-4166-8121-878465D8CD06.jpeg1EF9B71F-9EB8-4BCD-8BD2-03F787F4D718.jpeg
 
WxWatch said:
I think we should have a thread specifically for the 12th-16th time frame (adjust time frame if necessary) instead of flooding this November pattern thread. Just an idea.

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I mean It’s a broad threat that could shift time frames and by the looks of it.. it might even last all of November ?
 
NoSnowATL said:
I would wait until Sunday, but that’s just me. We have seen these go from 100-0.


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There's no harm in tracking the "storm" now if you temper your expectations. Just keep in mind it could go kaput real quick. A storm signal at this lead has meant almost nothing over the past year. Watch those ensembles for now
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I mean It’s a broad threat that could shift time frames and by the looks of it.. it might even last all of November
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Haha, I know, I know. I just thought it would be a good idea to have a thread for that window now since that frame is closing in and considering we keep seeing evidence supporting something wintery happening during that window.

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Webberweather53 said:
9 days out is an eternity for an upper level low, certainly a legit chance we see one but predictability will be much lower than normal if one actually transpires.
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Best long range, ULL tracking I recall was March 1, 2009 and the ‘14 Halloween CAE surprise!?
 
NoSnowATL said:
That was a good one too. Got 6ins of wet heavy snow and was under a heavy snow warning.


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I got about 8” from the 3/1/09 storm! Total paste job, and that was after about an inch or 2 of rain, the night before and didn’t turn to snow till about 2-3 in the afternoon
 
From GSP:
"The speed of the front,
modest forcing, and the lack of pre-frontal moisture transport means
that the primary story with this system will not be precipitation,
rather the extremely anomalous airmass expected behind the front
for the latter half of next week.

To put this airmass in perspective, temperatures will be anomalous
for January much less November. Climatologically, our normal high
temperatures bottom out around mid-January. High temperatures
will plummet below mid-January normals on Tuesday and not emerge
above mid-January normals until Friday. Therefore, temperatures
will crater 10-12 degrees below mid-January normals on Wednesday,
or a full 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, with lows
bottoming out in the upper teens for the mountains and lower 20s
east of the mountains Wednesday morning and highs in the upper
30s to lower 40s for Wednesday before beginning a slow recovery
through the end of the period."
 
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