Rolling that out january looks manageable. Feb.....yikes
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
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Nice jump on the meanThrough hr 210 GEFS looks much better. The trough at H5 digs much more compared to 12z.
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With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's certainly possible, but I'm afraid with the way subseasonal forcing is lining up, we'll see another surge of Maritime Continent forcing in early-mid December ish which will tilt the odds towards warmth. If we manage to be average or cold, I feel pretty confident that a significant winter storm would come knocking at least in central NC anyways.
The last 4 NINO Decembers that were cold or near average (1997, 2002, 2004, & 2009) produced at least one decent around here in Dec.
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Webb, more of a winter topic, but wondering what your thoughts are on the +IOD. I’m not as knowledgeable about ULL patterns as you are, but what would It help keep us into the cooler phases in comparison to last year? Or at least help keep out of the Maritime Tropical phases.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The +IOD certainly helps suppress Maritime Continent MJO activity, but recent studies (including: "Sensitivity of MJO propagation to a robust positive Indian Ocean dipole event in the superparameterized CAM") suggest its influence is pretty modest and limited relative to ENSO. This could be attributable to the smaller spatial scale of the IOD SST anomalies, the fact that +SSTAs north of the equator still exist in +IOD (potentially helping to maintain the MJO even w/ -SSTAs near Sumatra), & the IOD peaks at a different time of the year than MJO activity, whereas this isn't true w/ ENSO.
Figure 1 from the linked paper above imo does a pretty good job of summarizing the results of how +IOD will impact MJO activity in the Maritime Continent region. Left hand side are SSTs, the right side shows Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Hovmollers. Red = significant -OLR anomalies (or convection).
Top panel is climatology, next panel down is 2006, then for +IOD, and at the bottom El Nino. Notice that +IOD does suppress convection somewhat in the Maritime Continent but it doesn't appear anywhere near as significant as we see during Nino events. Pay close attention to how the red shading (-OLRa) virtually disappears around 120E longitude in the El Nino composite.
This winter is characteristically a modoki NINO so that will likely help even more than the +IOD in weakening MJO activity across the Maritime Continent, the extent to which this occurs remains to be seen.
Golf7575
Member
Hi Webber. I have a few things to ask if you dont mind. Its kinda a carryover from what ollie said. Ben Noll and Anthony Masiello both think that with the IOD being positive, that should allow the mjo to focus in the 8,1,2 phases more times than not this winter. I know you cant speak for them, but do you agree with that assessment? Also i keep hearing about tropical forcing, SO FAR, being further west around or actually west of the dateline, which is supposed to be favorable for cold as well. What i find interesting is that people keep calling this a modoki elniño already, but the sst's dont support that i didnt think. I dont want to see the 1+2 region warm up too much, because i dont believe that's good. Webber, i am going out on a limb here, but do you think this winter could catch alot of forecasters off guard who think it will be warmer than average? Personally, unless dramatic changes happen, it will be balls to the walls cold most of the time this winter, with only a few breaks here and there.
accu35
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Who ever removed my post, I seen that coming lol. Seriously, it would be cool if we had a learning thread for the newbies or even for those who want to enhance there knowledge. People like Webb or Larry and maybe a few more that could answer questions on there vrs in here.
I made one a long time ago but it completely failed
Nice look at the end of the ICON’s run. As Ethan80963 mentioned, It’s shooting for glory.
Wow, that is nice! That is the tail end storm that I've been talking about. We just may have a freak November southern snow storm!
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Taking Verbatim of course.
Looking at the 0z ICON at 500mb vort, look at that nice positive tilt trough! This is amazing for this early in the season! 
Good God Almighty.??Well posted above anyways, here it is again. headed for something special
Brad Pan. Said no snow outside the mtns this week or next. Let’s hold his arse accountable he’s not allowed to change his mind!
he's just playing the house odds...
Much more energy to work with this run vs previous run
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accu35
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Yeah, more energy for sure. One thing for sure, storm or not the cold is coming
I’m not going to get too exited about these models until they have that ULL in the SW getting caught up with the NS. A solution towards the ICON.
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