Pattern Nippy November

[WxWatch]

The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.

View attachment 25649

If the s/w ejects quicker, this would mean a higher possible chance of snow versus a CAD event since the S/W and the northern stream would be interacting with each other and the deeper colder air would still be in place(?) right?

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[NorthGaWinter4]

Euro had the low tracking in the gulf then right through the heart of the Carolinas..doubt it but nice to see it flirting with a wintry solution. Still lots of time I guess

How did the run look after 144 it looked super promising

 

[Metwannabe]

That deform band did work through Tn and northern Al

 

[Rain Cold]

The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.

View attachment 25649

I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).

 

[Metwannabe]

I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).

Unless this bowling ball develops like it's showing this run and is say another 200 miles south...

 

[Metwannabe]

I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).

Also to his point the trend is for the storm to move in quicker which would benefit some in the SE, at least that's my thoughts but see my name it has wannabe in it for a reason

 

[Stormdoc]

Yep not far from an interesting scenario. Move that closed low a little south and that reinforcing high a little south and we in bidness

 

[Webberweather53]

I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).

It helps us by allowing the storm to catch up to the region of most significant cold air advection and confluence on the backside of the New England & Atlantic Canada trough around day 5-6. A larger trough there to begin with (which is what the Euro has also trended to) also means more CAA & confluence and thus a stronger surface high. A faster southern stream s/w means the airmass in the wake of said trough has less time to modify before this storm comes knocking. It may seem like an unlikely solution atm if you only look at the sfc maps, but it's really not in the grand scheme of things given the margin of error at this range. This is really only a few minor tweaks away from being something more substantial for parts of the Apps & Mid-Atlantic w/ perhaps some front end IP/ZR thumping in traditional CAD areas.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How did the run look after 144 it looked super promising

basically a pseudo cut through the heart of the Carolinas with rain

 

[Webberweather53]

The end of the 12z ECMWF run is looking a lot more like canonical NINO (as expected) w/ deep Aleutian vortex, +PNA ridge and shortwaves undercutting the ridge within the subtropical jet. Also notice the -NAO precursor pattern is beginning to setup over Scandinavia.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That deform band did work through Tn and northern Al
View attachment 25650

I think what also was interesting this run was the development of an upper level low in the second phase of the storm .. could bring a different set of interesting solutions to the mix over the coming days

 

[Metwannabe]

The end of the 12z ECMWF run is looking a lot more like canonical NINO (as expected) w/ deep Aleutian vortex, +PNA ridge and shortwaves undercutting the ridge within the subtropical jet. Also notice the -NAO precursor pattern is beginning to setup over Scandinavia.


View attachment 25655

Man it is without a doubt the most wonderful time of the year, stock up on coffee now going to be some long nights in the coming weeks.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here comes our PV disruption, if we can keep the Aleutian/Bering Sea low + Scandinavian high pattern around long enough to do some serious damage to the PV & trigger a SSWE, maybe, just maybe we won't have to wait til February for this NINO winter to deliver the goods.

 

[Metwannabe]

Here comes our PV disruption, if we can keep the Aleutian/Bering Sea low + Scandinavian high pattern around long enough to do some serious damage to the PV & trigger a SSWE, maybe, just maybe we won't have to wait til February for this NINO winter to deliver the goods.

I'm gonna take y'alls word for it.... Lol

 

[Rain Cold]

The end of the 12z ECMWF run is looking a lot more like canonical NINO (as expected) w/ deep Aleutian vortex, +PNA ridge and shortwaves undercutting the ridge within the subtropical jet. Also notice the -NAO precursor pattern is beginning to setup over Scandinavia.


View attachment 25655

Now this, I like. I appreciate the response to the other post. It seems like to me that there's an awful lot of work that needs to be done for our area, but mountains and mid-Atlantic, not as much. Anyway, it's fun to have something to watch so early, at least.

 

[Webberweather53]

Man it is without a doubt the most wonderful time of the year, stock up on coffee now going to be some long nights in the coming weeks.

Yep, we're just getting started. If we somehow ended up w/ a cut-off ULL late next week & into the following weekend, all bets would be off.

 

[accu35]

I think what also was interesting this run was the development of an upper level low in the second phase of the storm .. could bring a different set of interesting solutions to the mix over the coming days

Does these upper lows have a cold core within it? Which could knock temps down a bit in the core?

 

[Metwannabe]

Does these upper lows have a cold core within it? Which could knock temps down a bit in the core?

Of course.....

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Does these upper lows have a cold core within it? Which could knock temps down a bit in the core?

Yes they are the one huge wildcard that usually brings the south their crazy winter weather .. this depicted an area of definitely colder temperatures especially in the upper atmosphere around the 850s where we need it to be cold enough to snow ... I’m sure the euro ensembles are going to be very telling in how much they agree on this feature, whether it is a fluke, or how strong or weak it ends up being

 

[ATLwxfan]

Put on your big boy and big girl pants...and some long johns.


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