If the s/w ejects quicker, this would mean a higher possible chance of snow versus a CAD event since the S/W and the northern stream would be interacting with each other and the deeper colder air would still be in place(?) right?
How did the run look after 144 it looked super promising
I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).
Unless this bowling ball develops like it's showing this run and is say another 200 miles south...
Also to his point the trend is for the storm to move in quicker which would benefit some in the SE, at least that's my thoughts but see my name it has wannabe in it for a reason
I think what also was interesting this run was the development of an upper level low in the second phase of the storm .. could bring a different set of interesting solutions to the mix over the coming days
Man it is without a doubt the most wonderful time of the year, stock up on coffee now going to be some long nights in the coming weeks.
Now this, I like. I appreciate the response to the other post. It seems like to me that there's an awful lot of work that needs to be done for our area, but mountains and mid-Atlantic, not as much. Anyway, it's fun to have something to watch so early, at least.
Does these upper lows have a cold core within it? Which could knock temps down a bit in the core?
Yes they are the one huge wildcard that usually brings the south their crazy winter weather .. this depicted an area of definitely colder temperatures especially in the upper atmosphere around the 850s where we need it to be cold enough to snow ... I’m sure the euro ensembles are going to be very telling in how much they agree on this feature, whether it is a fluke, or how strong or weak it ends up being
More or less ensemble support for winter weather?
I mean It’s a broad threat that could shift time frames and by the looks of it.. it might even last all of November ?
There's no harm in tracking the "storm" now if you temper your expectations. Just keep in mind it could go kaput real quick. A storm signal at this lead has meant almost nothing over the past year. Watch those ensembles for now
Haha, I know, I know. I just thought it would be a good idea to have a thread for that window now since that frame is closing in and considering we keep seeing evidence supporting something wintery happening during that window.I mean It’s a broad threat that could shift time frames and by the looks of it.. it might even last all of November
Best long range, ULL tracking I recall was March 1, 2009 and the ‘14 Halloween CAE surprise!?
I got about 8” from the 3/1/09 storm! Total paste job, and that was after about an inch or 2 of rain, the night before and didn’t turn to snow till about 2-3 in the afternoon
