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Pattern Nippy November

The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.

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If the s/w ejects quicker, this would mean a higher possible chance of snow versus a CAD event since the S/W and the northern stream would be interacting with each other and the deeper colder air would still be in place(?) right?

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The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.

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I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).
 
I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).
Unless this bowling ball develops like it's showing this run and is say another 200 miles south...

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I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).
Also to his point the trend is for the storm to move in quicker which would benefit some in the SE, at least that's my thoughts but see my name it has wannabe in it for a reason
 
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Yep not far from an interesting scenario. Move that closed low a little south and that reinforcing high a little south and we in bidness
 
I don't understand how this helps us, though. By the time the storm moves in, the high is way gone. Going to be hard to keep the system from cutting in land without either the high anchoring longer in the NE or the southern stream system speeding up a whole lot or another high moves into place just ahead of the southern stream storm (which doesn't appear likely at all).

It helps us by allowing the storm to catch up to the region of most significant cold air advection and confluence on the backside of the New England & Atlantic Canada trough around day 5-6. A larger trough there to begin with (which is what the Euro has also trended to) also means more CAA & confluence and thus a stronger surface high. A faster southern stream s/w means the airmass in the wake of said trough has less time to modify before this storm comes knocking. It may seem like an unlikely solution atm if you only look at the sfc maps, but it's really not in the grand scheme of things given the margin of error at this range. This is really only a few minor tweaks away from being something more substantial for parts of the Apps & Mid-Atlantic w/ perhaps some front end IP/ZR thumping in traditional CAD areas.
 
That deform band did work through Tn and northern Al
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I think what also was interesting this run was the development of an upper level low in the second phase of the storm .. could bring a different set of interesting solutions to the mix over the coming days
 
The end of the 12z ECMWF run is looking a lot more like canonical NINO (as expected) w/ deep Aleutian vortex, +PNA ridge and shortwaves undercutting the ridge within the subtropical jet. Also notice the -NAO precursor pattern is beginning to setup over Scandinavia.


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Man it is without a doubt the most wonderful time of the year, stock up on coffee now going to be some long nights in the coming weeks.
 
Here comes our PV disruption, if we can keep the Aleutian/Bering Sea low + Scandinavian high pattern around long enough to do some serious damage to the PV & trigger a SSWE, maybe, just maybe we won't have to wait til February for this NINO winter to deliver the goods.


I'm gonna take y'alls word for it.... Lol
 
The end of the 12z ECMWF run is looking a lot more like canonical NINO (as expected) w/ deep Aleutian vortex, +PNA ridge and shortwaves undercutting the ridge within the subtropical jet. Also notice the -NAO precursor pattern is beginning to setup over Scandinavia.


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Now this, I like. I appreciate the response to the other post. It seems like to me that there's an awful lot of work that needs to be done for our area, but mountains and mid-Atlantic, not as much. Anyway, it's fun to have something to watch so early, at least.
 
Man it is without a doubt the most wonderful time of the year, stock up on coffee now going to be some long nights in the coming weeks.

Yep, we're just getting started. If we somehow ended up w/ a cut-off ULL late next week & into the following weekend, all bets would be off.
 
I think what also was interesting this run was the development of an upper level low in the second phase of the storm .. could bring a different set of interesting solutions to the mix over the coming days
Does these upper lows have a cold core within it? Which could knock temps down a bit in the core?
 
Does these upper lows have a cold core within it? Which could knock temps down a bit in the core?
Yes they are the one huge wildcard that usually brings the south their crazy winter weather .. this depicted an area of definitely colder temperatures especially in the upper atmosphere around the 850s where we need it to be cold enough to snow ... I’m sure the euro ensembles are going to be very telling in how much they agree on this feature, whether it is a fluke, or how strong or weak it ends up being
 
Wow and that mean looks further south than the Euro. That could definitely hammer someone in the south.

9 days out is an eternity for an upper level low, certainly a legit chance we see one but predictability will be much lower than normal if one actually transpires.
 
The EPS definitely seems to be on board with the idea of a cut-off in the extended. This could turn into a really long week...

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Nice look if you want a big dog winter storm, CAA from that confluence in SE Canada, ridging over top that ULL, very nice pacific pattern to go along with that, Aleutian low can really make good things happen, but it’s interesting that even the GEFS is latching on to it aswell, not often you see model support for some as wacky as a ULL until you get under hour 150, maybe this Aleutian low can last Into December, if it does boy oh boy 8A5E7393-07D4-4166-8121-878465D8CD06.jpeg1EF9B71F-9EB8-4BCD-8BD2-03F787F4D718.jpeg
 
I think we should have a thread specifically for the 12th-16th time frame (adjust time frame if necessary) instead of flooding this November pattern thread. Just an idea.

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I mean It’s a broad threat that could shift time frames and by the looks of it.. it might even last all of November ?
 
I would wait until Sunday, but that’s just me. We have seen these go from 100-0.


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There's no harm in tracking the "storm" now if you temper your expectations. Just keep in mind it could go kaput real quick. A storm signal at this lead has meant almost nothing over the past year. Watch those ensembles for now
 
I mean It’s a broad threat that could shift time frames and by the looks of it.. it might even last all of November
Haha, I know, I know. I just thought it would be a good idea to have a thread for that window now since that frame is closing in and considering we keep seeing evidence supporting something wintery happening during that window.

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9 days out is an eternity for an upper level low, certainly a legit chance we see one but predictability will be much lower than normal if one actually transpires.
Best long range, ULL tracking I recall was March 1, 2009 and the ‘14 Halloween CAE surprise!?
 
That was a good one too. Got 6ins of wet heavy snow and was under a heavy snow warning.


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I got about 8” from the 3/1/09 storm! Total paste job, and that was after about an inch or 2 of rain, the night before and didn’t turn to snow till about 2-3 in the afternoon
 
From GSP:
"The speed of the front,
modest forcing, and the lack of pre-frontal moisture transport means
that the primary story with this system will not be precipitation,
rather the extremely anomalous airmass expected behind the front
for the latter half of next week.

To put this airmass in perspective, temperatures will be anomalous
for January much less November.
Climatologically, our normal high
temperatures bottom out around mid-January. High temperatures
will plummet below mid-January normals on Tuesday and not emerge
above mid-January normals until Friday. Therefore, temperatures
will crater 10-12 degrees below mid-January normals on Wednesday,
or a full 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, with lows
bottoming out in the upper teens for the mountains and lower 20s
east of the mountains Wednesday morning and highs in the upper
30s to lower 40s for Wednesday before beginning a slow recovery
through the end of the period."
 
The coldest I get on the 384 hours of GFS , is 29!
snoMG!
 
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