• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

WxWatch said:
I was just looking over the 0z Euro and it has exactly what I've been mentioning. It just has everything further east than what I have thought. The most thing that came to mind is where will the boundary set up? If it sets up further north and west, there would a wide swath of snow/winter mix. Perhaps, there could be a northwest trend.


The area of rain showers at the end of the boundary is associated with the 3rd low that will be developing on the tail end. At this point, the cold deep air will already be in place.
View attachment 25336

At hour 192, the final third low develops on the tail end of the boundary. As of now, this low would strengthen and follow the east coast off shore and give the east coast a snow storm. Again, if there will be that northwest trend, a lot more area's would be in play across the Southeastern US for the chance of snow/winter mix. We'll see how everything comes together.
View attachment 25337
Click to expand...

Since it’s northern stream dominated, this is the kind of setup that I don’t see trending NW and doing any favors for NC. I think a glancing blow of a couple of inches widespread on the state like on the 00z euro is best case for November (with this setup). Moisture will be limited until this thing bombs off the coast and by then N.C. is done. Still, I’ll happily take it in Nov.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
And it seems to be colder and snowier for other parts too. I see a few members that give flakes to N GA as well or AL. Weird we are talking about snow in November.
Click to expand...

It's certainly possible to get a big dog at this time of the year at least in NC, but they're very rare of course. Ironically, a NINO winter (1968-69) produced a respectable event in central NC on nearly the same days in question.
November 11-12 1968 NC Snowmap.png


Everyone of course remembers this winter for what eventually happened in mid February.
February 15-17 1969 NC Snow map.png
 
BufordWX said:
11th is the time period for the winter precipitation in the Carolinas.
View attachment 25333View attachment 25334
Click to expand...
2 inches of snow in MBY on 11/12?! Even with the Euro's warm bias I don't even believe that, LOL! Maybe the western part of the state. It's hard enough getting an inch of snow in January. The models are trolling really early this year.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What is the effect of that for the SE?
Click to expand...

The main impact from a stronger West Pacific MJO event in the longer term (plus contributions from Halong) is a deeper vortex over the N Pacific & more amplified downstream wave train, ultimately teleconnecting to a +PNA & deeper Hudson Bay vortex both of which favor more cold in the SE US.

This is evident in the 48 hr trend in the GEFS:

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_13.png
 
mrdaddyman said:
2 inches of snow in MBY on 11/12?! Even with the Euro's warm bias I don't even believe that, LOL! Maybe the western part of the state. It's hard enough getting an inch of snow in January. The models are trolling really early this year.
Click to expand...
I thought all models had a cold bias!?!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
BufordWX said:
11th is the time period for the winter precipitation in the Carolinas.
View attachment 25333View attachment 25334
Click to expand...

Euro has not backed down the last few runs. In fact, this is a nice increase from the previous runs. Not sure why some are saying it can't happen just because it is in November. The weather is going to do what it's going to do with the factors that we have at that time. It doesn't really care that it's November. Yes, wintry weather does not usually happen here in November, but it's not impossible.

Also, this is the Euro. As long as I have been on these forums folks have said the Euro is the king over the GFS. I know the GFS is supposed to be new and improved now, but the Euro showing this should make folks take notice and at least pay attention to the possibility.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro has not backed down the last few runs. In fact, this is a nice increase from the previous runs. Not sure why some are saying it can't happen just because it is in November. The weather is going to do what it's going to do with the factors that we have at that time. It doesn't really care that it's November. Yes, wintry weather does not happen often in November here, but it's not impossible.

Also, this is the Euro. As long as I have been on these forums folks have said the Euro is the king over the GFS. I know the GFS is supposed to be new and improved now, but the Euro showing this should make folks take notice and at least pay attention to the possibility.
Click to expand...
At the moment it's just 2 runs and is only worth watching. It's bound to change. For all you know it'll be gone at 12Z. And it happens every winter. Storms way out vanish or get so close only to say "nope!" at the last minute.
 
ForsythSnow said:
At the moment it's just 2 runs and is only worth watching. It's bound to change. For all you know it'll be gone at 12Z. And it happens every winter. Storms way out vanish or get so close only to say "nope!" at the last minute.
Click to expand...

And for all you know it won't be gone the next run. Storms also vanish and then come back at the last minute. Just saying totally discounting it because it's only November is silly, just as much as guaranteeing it's going to happen. Just wait and see, and always better in life to be optimistic than negative about things.
 
Brick Tamland said:
And for all you know it won't be gone the next run. Storms also vanish and then come back at the last minute. Just saying totally discounting it because it's only November is silly, just as much as guaranteeing it's going to happen. Just wait and see, and always better in life to be optimistic than negative about things.
Click to expand...
You are absolutely one of the best straw man makers on any weather forum on the net. He didn't say anywhere anything about totally discounting it. It is November and a week out. Maybe it will snow. But the odds don't favor it. So, viewing the system with a little skepticism is warranted. That's all that is being said. It's a weather analysis thread, not an "I really really wish it would snow" thread.
 
Rain Cold said:
You are absolutely one of the best straw man makers on any weather forum on the net. He didn't say anywhere anything about totally discounting it. It is November and a week out. Maybe it will snow. But the odds don't favor it. So, viewing the system with a little skepticism is warranted. That's all that is being said. It's a weather analysis thread, not an "I really really wish it would snow" thread.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Probability of something occurring like that is low, but I'm not discounting the chance that it could happen. It's still in a range that could allow it to happen. In my years of watching snow, The amount of storms that have failed to show outnumber the ones that did. With that said, if we have an anomalous cold blast, the odds of a January-like storm would increase if all the stars align. I mean the Euro has me at freezing all day on the 12th I believe. I've never seen temps like that this early, so I have reason to doubt. You can't chase everything with 100% optimism because if you do then that light at the end of the tunnel could just be a train.
 
SD said:
I thought all models had a cold bias!?!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I know you’re being sarcastic, but the Euro suite has had in recent months a fairly neutral bias and has easily been the most accurate in the extended while the GFS suite has been decidedly cold biased. However, for last week alone, the EPS switched to warm bias while the GEFS was pretty much neutral. We’ll have to see what future biases are.
 
Yayy growing season continues!
3a83146bc4f4116548932a6ddda37efa.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top