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Pattern Nippy November

The GFS is pretty close to a nice lil event for northern parts of MS/AL/GA the low is almost perfect spot before turning slightly NE thru Southern GA... if that just planned out more and slowed down a lil bit would give more credence to winter precip as the H and cold area would have more lined up timing... but such is life with a overrunning event like nailing water to a board
 
GaWx said:
No pattern is permanent or even close. Nothing really gets "locked in" as the atmosphere is very fluid and is a fluid. Any extreme pattern will almost always revert closer to the mean at some point afterward before possibly reloading. In the meantime, what's not to like about our nearterm wx here in Nov with the prospects of one of the coldest first 3 weeks of Nov on record and even a decent shot at wintry precip in TN/NC. My advice is to enjoy it and not worry about winter. Your worrying isn't going to change what happens in winter, regardless. Enjoy what you already are getting as it is a rarity. This message is really for all of the worriers about winter.
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Great point ... not to beat a dead horse, but think about the extreme heat in October and how rare that stretch was and now looking at what may be coming next week. Wow, in just what ... 5 weeks? Talk about the rubber band breaking. We (me included) just need to enjoy the extreme of what are seeing. Yes, I want snow as well ... but this is amazing cold for this time of year!
 
CMC little bit more juicy then 12z run got more interaction
 

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k0skinne said:
Great point ... not to beat a dead horse, but think about the extreme heat in October and how rare that stretch was and now looking at what may be coming next week. Wow, in just what ... 5 weeks? Talk about the rubber band breaking. We (me included) just need to enjoy the extreme of what are seeing. Yes, I want snow as well ... but this is amazing cold for this time of year!
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'folks, the bathtub has, sloshed...' JB
 
WxBlue said:
Gotta love junky anafrontal setups to get the show rolling for season. Surface temperatures are obviously warm so we'll need a nice thump for anything to stick on the ground. There's some negative omega in the DGZ so maybe the snow rate will get it done for a quick inch or two in this particular set-up?
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I don't think there will be a widespread 1-2" for the area's that do receive any snowfall. It's possible that the boarders of eastern TN/western NC may receive 1-2" but that's stretching it imo. I'm still going with more sleet/ice than snowfall, however, this is going to depend on how quick the deeper cold air will progress south and east. West of the mountains have a higher chance at frozen precipitation due to the colder air progressing south and east on time while the moisture would be in place. The cold will be having a hard time making it over the mountains on time for a greater chance of frozen precip east of the mountains, but we'll see about that. Central NC and points northeast up towards VA have a good chance at getting a quick dumping of snow just before the moisture moves out.
 
Storm5 said:
If this wasn’t early November I’d be far more interested
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Actually it will be Mid November next week so thats a little better than Early November.
 
The Canadian is going to give that second system another go here at 00z although the cold air appears to be extremely marginal compared to 12z
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WxWatch said:
I don't think there will be a widespread 1-2" for the area's that do receive any snowfall. It's possible that the boarders of eastern TN/western NC may receive 1-2" but that's stretching it imo. I'm still going with more sleet/ice than snowfall, however, this is going to depend on how quick the deeper cold air will progress south and east. West of the mountains have a higher chance at frozen precipitation due to the colder air progressing south and east on time while the moisture would be in place. The cold will be having a hard time making it over the mountains on time for a greater chance of frozen precip east of the mountains, but we'll see about that. Central NC and points northeast up towards VA have a good chance at getting a quick dumping of snow just before the moisture moves out.
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Good point, micro climates are key in East Tn and Western NC. Places in the Chattanooga Metro have ALREADY seen snow showers. From the Halloween Cold front. Up above 1500 ft.
 
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Welp, easy to see what we’re moving towards on the Canadian with system 2. Box cutter. Womp. Next
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The Kuchera snowfall output is the most realistic output you're going to get. Eastern TN/Western NC highest mountain peaks, up to 5" including the mountains of southwest VA into WV. Steep lapse rates and convection/lift due to the mountains. The Kuchera is also showing that dumping of snow from Central NC to VA. Elsewhere that receives frozen precip in the southeast, little to no snow, more sleet/ice. snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
WxWatch said:
The Kuchera snowfall output is the most realistic output you're going to get. Eastern TN/Western NC highest mountain peaks, up to 5" including the mountains of southwest VA into WV. Steep lapse rates and convection/lift due to the mountains. The Kuchera is also showing that dumping of snow from Central NC to VA. Elsewhere that receives frozen precip in the southeast, little to no snow, more sleet/ice. View attachment 25557
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That's a delicious 1.9 inches for CHA though, airport elevation 682 ft above sea level.. Oh well, only 20+ more runs of the models to go.
 
WxWatch said:
The Kuchera snowfall output is the most realistic output you're going to get. Eastern TN/Western NC highest mountain peaks, up to 5" including the mountains of southwest VA into WV. Steep lapse rates and convection/lift due to the mountains. The Kuchera is also showing that dumping of snow from Central NC to VA. Elsewhere that receives frozen precip in the southeast, little to no snow, more sleet/ice. View attachment 25557
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Yes that's snow, but the freezing rain much further south
 
I've seen this type of setup storm few years ago, cant remember which one it was and it wasn't November but the models showed the snow up towards Birmingham to Huntsville, but with a strong low in the gulf with dinamtic cooling, places south of i20 got crushed. To me this one looks more like a sleet fest
 
accu35 said:
I've seen this type of setup storm few years ago, cant remember which one it was and it wasn't November but the models showed the snow up towards Birmingham to Huntsville, but with a strong low in the gulf with dinamtic cooling, places south of i20 got crushed. To me this one looks more like a sleet fest
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This setup is extremely close to the snow even in December 2017. Does that jog your memory?


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Altho I think it’s nearly over, I guess you can say the ICON is improving, finally more interaction 696DDE9F-3840-4FA1-A435-389F0BF4831F.gif
 
GFS changed pretty big at the surface so far back to suppression, but it’s no wonder, that Shortwave is slowing down again 24C3D1D1-60BB-4C4D-91A9-99928FD95BD7.gif
 
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I'm serious. I can't tell you how many times as a child a polar front would settle through the region and a wave would develop and move along it, bringing a winter storm. Nowadays, the front moves through, the wave stalls out in the SW or trends slower and slower and the cold air moderates before the wave finally decides to come out and cut west of the area. Not sure why that is, but it's the new normal for sure. It's why I never get excited when I hear discussions of overrunning events. You can count on just about all of them that show up 5-10 days out to trend that way.
 
Gefs actually trended the wrong way just a little bit, at least time is running out for a really big shift in the wrong direction when it comes to the larger scale stuff, but when it comes to mesoscale stuff we’ll prolly fail in a way there, lol1615C5B6-0BB1-4961-9B7A-5B06AB332568.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
looking at the gefs, starting to get little consistency, someone in the SE will probably see some token flakes, which is never a bad thing for November, when it comes to NC/north, I’ve seen many setups with a band of rain move thru, and the last portion of the rain band mixes with some snow at around 35-40 degrees, i can’t remember when that happened but it was somewhat recent View attachment 25562View attachment 25563
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Nov 2012 , I thing had this exact thing happen even here! Had a small dusting on back of a frontal band
 
Tarheel1 said:
Nov 2012 , I thing had this exact thing happen even here! Had a small dusting on back of a frontal band
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I deleted that post lol, because I don’t wanna get any hopes up at all ? this system could still completely fail but at least it’s under hour 150
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I deleted that post lol, because I don’t wanna get any hopes up at all this system could still completely fail but at least it’s under hour 150
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It’s all about the northern stream. Needs to go neutral tilt early and dig south. The GFS has been trending away from a N.C. storm with each run, keeping the N/S confluence north where any energy over the central part of the state, if there, won’t interact
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I can’t see my posts I think somethings wrong with tapatalk gif uploading

But I tried to post these thoughts:







Sorry for linking to my winter, but I have to head to work and I can’t retype and upload all the images here again.



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Jon said:
I can’t see my posts I think somethings wrong with tapatalk gif uploading

But I tried to post these thoughts:







Sorry for linking to my winter, but I have to head to work and I can’t retype and upload all the images here again.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You have a winter account? ;)
 
Just an interesting observation for mby from the 0z EPS, while it had fewer members with sn from yesterday's runs (19 compared to 21-22) it also had more members with 2" plus (4 compared to 0 yesterday). Hmmmm go big or go home

edit: to add to this, yesterday's 12z eps had only 3 with 1" amounts all other's less than an 1", the 0z actually had 9 with 1" or more
 
metwannabe said:
Just an interesting observation for mby from the 0z EPS, while it had fewer members with sn from yesterday's runs (19 compared to 21-22) it also had more members with 2" plus (4 compared to 0 yesterday). Hmmmm go big or go home

edit: to add to this, yesterday's 12z eps had only 3 with 1" amounts all other's less than an 1", the 0z actually had 9 with 1" or more
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How many hours of daylight do you have left right now up there?

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metwannabe said:
Just an interesting observation for mby from the 0z EPS, while it had fewer members with sn from yesterday's runs (19 compared to 21-22) it also had more members with 2" plus (4 compared to 0 yesterday). Hmmmm go big or go home

edit: to add to this, yesterday's 12z eps had only 3 with 1" amounts all other's less than an 1", the 0z actually had 9 with 1" or more
Click to expand...

Been noticing the GEFS adding more ice/sleet to for our areas, sleet definitely makes sense in this type of setup
 
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