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Pattern Nippy November

Ugh ice maps should be banned because they never verify even half of what is shown.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Could this lead to a more suppressed wave?
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Yes it's definitely a favorable trend for suppression & keeping around this cooler air mass much longer, both of which are more conducive for wintry weather around the day 9-11 time frame, but not necessarily the case w/ the first disturbance around day 6-7. This latter system actually materializing at all largely hinges on when the southern stream s/w over the SW US finally crawls out from underneath the western US ridge.

Given the large-scale pattern in place, cold air damming or an overrunning type setup would be the favored storm type (if any) for the 2nd system (again barring that it actually occurs in the first place).

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh192_trend (3).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes it's definitely a favorable trend for suppression & keeping around this cooler air mass much longer, both of which are more conducive for wintry weather around the day 9-11 time frame, but not necessarily the case w/ the first disturbance around day 6-7. This latter system actually materializing at all largely hinges on when the southern stream s/w over the SW US finally crawls out from underneath the western US ridge.

Given the large-scale pattern in place, cold air damming or an overrunning type setup would be the favored storm type (if any) for the 2nd system (again barring that it actually occurs in the first place).

View attachment 25506
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Thanks Man, maybe the CMC was on to something.
 
Well, I see the GFS did a complete 180 last night. We had the Euro showing a winter storm first, only for it to look a little worse, and then the GFS comes along and goes bonkers after it looked worse than the Euro yesterday. A lot of back and forth and we're still 7 days out. But it is crazy even having a potential winter storm to track in November. Hope this is a good sign of things to come.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, I see the GFS did a complete 180 last night. We had the Euro showing a winter storm first, only for it to look a little worse, and then the GFS comes along and goes bonkers after it looked worse than the Euro yesterday. A lot of back and forth and we're still 7 days out. But it is crazy even having a potential winter storm to track in November. Hope this is a good sign of things to come.
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True... but last winter ... our only snow we go to amount anything came mid November 2 half inches ... then rest winter went poof... don’t want repeat...
 
ULL May need to back off/slow down a bit instead now, for a more classic setup, and artic high pressure atop everything to our north, sorta similar to a southern slider, altho it takes perfect timing which is highly unlikely
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Trending toward EURO! View attachment 25514
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So, the GFS didn't have anything yesterday, while the Euro did, and then the Euro didn't have anything today, while the GFS did, and now the GFS is showing less.

Not sure all this back and forth and the models switching places is a real trend. Kind of all over the place the last two days.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, the GFS didn't have anything yesterday, while the Euro did, and then the Euro didn't have anything today, while the GFS did, and now the GFS is showing less.

Not sure all this back and forth and the models switching places is a real trend. Kind of all over the place the last two days.
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Yeah, we tend to see lots of back and forth in the 192+ hour time frame each year. Hard to get a reliable trend for an unreliable forecasting time frame. The only trend I'd say that has merit is the trend that widespread SE winter storms that show up at those leads usually end up not happening. Especially since it's mid-November, I wouldn't bet against that trend. Still worth watching though.
 
Just Checking in, apparently some models have the shortwave too slow and some (GFS) too fast. I wouldn't mind meeting somewhere in the middle. Luckily the rainy solution is just the FV3.
 
I would like to see the ULL on the euro further east and taping into the southern stream. I'm not sure maybe someone could answer this. The temps on the euro vs gfs, are they similar on timing into the southeast?


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WxWatch said:
I do think it will lead to more of a suppressed wave due to the expected strong arctic high that will coming down from Canada. There's absolutely no reason why the wave will trend further and further north and west.
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Except that at these leads, these massive arctic highs are usually overmodeled and press the flow too far south. We will see whether or not these low 1050s/upper 1040s highs trend weaker and farther north/northwest as we close in.
 
Rain Cold said:
Except that at these leads, these massive arctic highs are usually overmodeled and press the flow too far south. We will see whether or not these low 1050s/upper 1040s highs trend weaker and farther north/northwest as we close in.
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True, the pressures are normally over-modeled, but there has been consistency of a very strong surface high coming down. Plus the time period is closing in, which means, that strong high has a chance at verifying.
 
Ahh Yes the lovely late fall/early winter overrunning model events. One day your in the money the next day it's cold rain. It's just back and forth back and forth which ultimately just leads to crushing disappointment for most...

One of these days I'll get my overrunning event :)
 
This will continue to trend North and West due to the HP being less than what the models showed yesterday and even today. It will likely be a little East of modeled location and end up around 1030-1035mb when all is said and done. We have seen this scenario play out FAR too many times to argue against it, especially in November this is highly unlikely to be close to correct. I think it will eventually end up being a DC north storm with most of the Snow being inland from there to NE.
 
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