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Pattern Nippy November

Gotta love playing the game of wave timing and amplitude. Need to have that wave in the SW stay back long enough to let the northern wave clear. If the SW wave kicks too soon it phases/absorbs into the northern stream and we get a front.

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Fountainguy97 said:
Biggest “issue” as always is HP strength. The HP isn’t very strong to begin with and it is weakening rapidly throughout the storm. CAD signal is very marginal. Given the FV3 has a known cold bias this marginal setup is very very iffy on it.

really need to see the gfs beef up this HP substantially.

View attachment 25269

So our coldest model showing a CAD this weak is not a super confident sign. It’s totally possible! But fv3 again on an island all alone.
View attachment 25270
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I would believe, taking verbatim of course, that the FV3 is relying on snow cover. However with a 60-degree soil temp, snow wouldn't even stick even with a high precip rate
1573257600-OQCByrBY3M0.png

Also, I would like to note that on the GEFS, models are starting to look much better in regards to being a strong cold front like our last system. It went from four at 18z to seven at 00z to 11 at 06z, only 2 members have a dusting at RDU. The main takeaway from this is that even though GEFS solutions are beginning to have a similar setup and cave if you will. Nevertheless, GEFS members are much warmer than the FV3. However, from the strong precip rates, It would be possible to see snow from those members if you have a strong cold bias like the FV3.
 
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SD said:
Gotta love playing the game of wave timing and amplitude. Need to have that wave in the SW stay back long enough to let the northern wave clear. If the SW wave kicks too soon it phases/absorbs into the northern stream and we get a front.

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Unfortunately that’s the threading the needle part that has to still appear, because once it starts disappearing on the GFS, it’s likely done
 
Yeah, gefs is actually slowly improving (at surface) more south members and stronger high pressure to the north this run, altho that last three runs have slowly shifted lower mslp south, still a whole lotta work to do, I don’t think this is happening myself but it’s fun to track. 2BBBEA43-8F3B-4D5C-B747-EDEB3F8694AE.gifF827C5BC-A906-4A81-AC7C-B0897A8EEDCD.gif
 
SD said:
Gotta love playing the game of wave timing and amplitude. Need to have that wave in the SW stay back long enough to let the northern wave clear. If the SW wave kicks too soon it phases/absorbs into the northern stream and we get a front.

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Click to expand...


Looking at the vorticity, the GFS wants us to believe a shortwave stalls off the coast of CA & ejects Tuesday giving NC a large snow in the first half of Nov. with little interaction and no phasing, a very weak HP with less than ideal cold/weak CAD and weak ridging... next.
758ec03c88f88243c69406e5bb3ab136.jpg



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Jon said:
Looking at the vorticity, the GFS wants us to believe a shortwave stalls off the coast of CA & ejects Tuesday giving NC a large snow in the first half of Nov. with little interaction and no phasing, a very weak HP with less than ideal cold/weak CAD and weak ridging... next.
758ec03c88f88243c69406e5bb3ab136.jpg



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Agreed if we were 30 days from now I could get behind some type of possibility. I guess we could hope to get lucky and have a November 2000 scenario and actually over perform

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This was predicted months ago the fv3 would have a cold bias and overcorrect once alot closer. Even gefs, but not as bad.
 
I think y’all are having bad flashbacks from last year.. every year is different in their own way and maybe the Gfs is picking up on it with an early season storm. “Cold bias” blah blah blah .. this sucker is within 140 hours .. I’ve looked at past Gfs runs and if u look at current conditions on the map and go back run after run u can notice the Gfs pretty much has every piece correctly on the table and in the general right spot through hour 162 .. this storm is well below that time .. interesting to say the least but all we can do is stay positive and hope for a great 12z run by everyone
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think y’all are having bad flashbacks from last year.. every year is different in their own way and maybe the Gfs is picking up on it with an early season storm. “Cold bias” blah blah blah .. this sucker is within 140 hours .. I’ve looked at past Gfs runs and if u look at current conditions on the map and go back run after run u can notice the Gfs pretty much has every piece correctly on the table and in the general right spot through hour 162 .. this storm is well below that time .. interesting to say the least but all we can do is stay positive and hope for a great 12z run by everyone
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I remember a week ago the GFS was the first model to move from a southern slider to a cold front, other models caved to it. If this doesn't verify, in which I have my doubts. It will just lose even more credibility.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think y’all are having bad flashbacks from last year.. every year is different in their own way and maybe the Gfs is picking up on it with an early season storm. “Cold bias” blah blah blah .. this sucker is within 140 hours .. I’ve looked at past Gfs runs and if u look at current conditions on the map and go back run after run u can notice the Gfs pretty much has every piece correctly on the table and in the general right spot through hour 162 .. this storm is well below that time .. interesting to say the least but all we can do is stay positive and hope for a great 12z run by everyone
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I'm positive. I'm positive that until I see a stout -NAO show up on the GFS, we're going to watch storms trend warmer. Especially in Novfreakinvember. ?

But it is nice to actually see some legit cold showing up. I hope it means something good with respect to winter.
 
2ndish piece of northern stream looks closer, and more SW, not good, still will probably get something in Nc this run but what saved it is the southern piece slowing down
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
2ndish piece of northern stream looks closer, and more SW, not good, still will probably get something in Nc this run but what saved it is the southern piece slowing down
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I see the mountains and far NC getting something small if anything. It’s just too early for 95% or us.


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With the 12z gfs bombing off N.C. coast at 998mb, expect a continued NW trend to keep N.C. totally out of this one. Can’t have a look like that, wrong month. Lol


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BufordWX said:
And you expect me to believe this.View attachment 25236
There is also a high of 29 here on the 12th. Looks like the Fv3 is back to its old tricks again.View attachment 25237
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What happened since yesterday’s total nonsense 18Z FV3 run as of 18Z on 11/12 near Atlanta?

18Z: 29
0Z: 37
6Z: 55
12Z: 65

That same Happy Hour run also has a low of 29 the next day at Orlando! This is going to be a very long winter of watching the FV3. o_O
Fortunately, we’ll always have the King to keep folks grounded.
 
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GaWx said:
What happened since yesterday’s total nonsense 18Z FV3 run as of 18Z on 11/12 near Atlanta?

18Z: 29
0Z: 37
6Z: 55
12Z: 65

This is going to be a very long winter of watching the FV3. o_O
Fortunately, we’ll always have the King to keep folks grounded.
Click to expand...
King being the UK. Euro got dethroned about 2 year ago.
 
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