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Pattern Nippy November

12z GFS

I was wondering if things could possibly trend/shift further south? It certainly could with this look. If the northern stream presses down further south, of course it would be colder. Plus, that's an impressive arctic hp. This look is also impressive for it to be early in the season. For now, it's fun to look at, could it be something to seriously track in the coming days? Of course, that's a possibility. I'd like to see serious consistency for the system and watch for a south shift with the northern stream.
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pcbjr said:
Came home early today to enjoy the outside while it's enjoyable! Just had to post it before going back out ... :p
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I'm 100% with you on this, Phil! I'll be outside ASAP. With perfect wx like this, I don't care about this winter or any other time right now as I'm going to enjoy the beautiful present rather than worry about the future or dwell on the past.
 
WxWatch said:
12z GFS

I was wondering if things could possibly trend/shift further south? It certainly could with this look. If the northern stream presses down further south, of course it would be colder. Plus, that's an impressive arctic hp. This look is also impressive for it to be early in the season. For now, it's fun to look at, could it be something to seriously track in the coming days? Of course, that's a possibility. I'd like to see serious consistency.
0e8a3ccd01a58d3765cc4eb6da80fbd3.jpg
49baac609b420eae6b6e3e84721b0200.jpg


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Click to expand...
Still not sleeping on his one completely yet, it’s squashed on the GFS at H5 from that strong lobe in SE Canada but if the axis of that trough could just move a little bit NW but not to far NW than it could still do a little something 7EBCD072-F585-46A7-AAD1-D6DCF7D542A2.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
I'm 100% with you on this, Phil! I'll be outside ASAP. With perfect wx like this, I don't care about this winter or any other time right now as I'm going to enjoy the beautiful present rather than worry about the future or dwell on the past.
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:cool:
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Still not sleeping on his one completely yet, it’s squashed on the GFS at H5 from that strong lobe in SE Canada but if the axis of that trough could just move a little bit NW but not to far NW than it could still do a little something View attachment 25211
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The time period I was referring to is starting on the 11th. I was looking at that time period you're referring to and I have my doubts that any weather system will develop. The ridge out west is so broad that it compresses energy from developing into a define weather system.

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GaWx said:
I'm 100% with you on this, Phil! I'll be outside ASAP. With perfect wx like this, I don't care about this winter or any other time right now as I'm going to enjoy the beautiful present rather than worry about the future or dwell on the past.
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Came inside ... just to remind myself to get the arse right back outside ... ;)
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Looks like the freezing line got down to abt 3000 feet!
First dusting of snow/rime ice of the season for my area!

what a day in weather. Went from 75 down to 34 and surrounding peaks getting snow. Haha crazy.

View attachment 25207
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Hey yes, I hiked up to Rainbow Falls in Smoky Mountain National Park this morning and can confirm that the scene was definitely worth a long hike!



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Van Denton In GSO posted this about an hour ago. He reminds me of a lot of people on here. Somebody needs to get him on this board!

"I would bet no one likes snow as much as I do. With that in mind, I look at EVERYTHING I can find to see any possibility. I have found over the past few years the best way to get a heads up is to look at the long-range model ensembles. The 2 primary models, GFS and European are run 20 and 50 times with each update. By looking at ALL of these runs, I am able to mathematically put this together. Over the past 3 years of doing this, every snow that we have gotten, has shown up here 10-15 days in advance. There are no details or specifics that far out, but you do get hints in advance of a real possibility. I don't get excited until I see the value climb above 30%."
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In GSO posted this about an hour ago. He reminds me of a lot of people on here. Somebody needs to get him on this board!

"I would bet no one likes snow as much as I do. With that in mind, I look at EVERYTHING I can find to see any possibility. I have found over the past few years the best way to get a heads up is to look at the long-range model ensembles. The 2 primary models, GFS and European are run 20 and 50 times with each update. By looking at ALL of these runs, I am able to mathematically put this together. Over the past 3 years of doing this, every snow that we have gotten, has shown up here 10-15 days in advance. There are no details or specifics that far out, but you do get hints in advance of a real possibility. I don't get excited until I see the value climb above 30%."
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Ollie,
What is "snow"?
Phil
 
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