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Pattern Nippy November

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This is the gem forecast for the end of the run, and it looks cold
 
What’s with all the snow talk?
Tarheel1 said:
There was a winter, I think November 2001, there were several small snow / slop events here in Greenville, and was actually a big event forecasted, we were under a WSW for 4-8”, that busted, got about 1” in Greer. But it is possible to get snows in mid and late November down here, although rare, the models may not be out to lunch! Then the Dec 2002 event, was amazeballs, early December
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Who are you and where is Mack?
 
18z runs
GFS: Runs right through the middle of a HP ridge, very GFS-ish. Doesn't get much NS interaction so still holding on with the ss low. Not great but better than 06z and 12z
GEFS: Still a couple of members, however not as bullish. Maybe 3 members in NC, compared to 7 at 12z. However, throws the MA form a bone.
On to 00z. Lets hug the 12z cmc
 
Golf7575 said:
Accu, there will probably be too much confluence to allow a system to develop, but we shall see.
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I understand, but with some talk about the gefs and eps and cmc showing a interesting somewhat setup in that time frame, why not post something from the 0z tonight that goes alone with it. There's really nothing else to do right now lol.
 
accu35 said:
I understand, but with some talk about the gefs and eps and cmc showing a interesting somewhat setup in that time frame, why not post something from the 0z tonight that goes alone with it.
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I agree buddy. We shall see as we get closer because its too far out in lala land now.
 
I'm riding the HWRF for Halloween night cause it shows the solution I want. Nam and GFS are just a hour latter clearing the rain out of the high country before K/O.
This is 7pm for all the trick or treaters out there tomorrow night. 2m temps Nam are coldest at this time frame upper 30's with windchill in the 20's. Lows bottom out around 20-22 degere range by sunrise Friday morning on all models.

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3k NAM dips wind chill values down to 7F in Watauga Co Fri morning.
 
The most recent CFSv2 forecasts have gone towards a blend of our Novembers since the winter of 2012-13 & analogs with a similar temperature distribution in October, w/ a colder than average E US being forecast. Oth, both the analogs and our longer term interannual tendency suggest December will be mild. I tend to agree with this outlook & I wouldn't bet against many of us seeing our 9th warm December in a row.

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Novembers following -PNA Octobers.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The most recent CFSv2 forecasts have gone towards a blend of our Novembers since the winter of 2012-13 & analogs with a similar temperature distribution in October, w/ a colder than average E US being forecast. Oth, both the analogs and our longer term interannual tendency suggest December will be mild. I tend to agree with this outlook & I wouldn't bet against many of us seeing our 9th warm December in a row.

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I could certainly see us sneaking in a minor-moderate impact level winter storm during November, it's been one of the few things we've been doing right lately.

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Nov 1 2014 NWS Columbia Record Snowfall Map .png

November 23-24 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
metwannabe said:
Also once again let's see if any of these gust the Euro is throwing out come close to verifying

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I'll let you know lol. In for a wild one tomorrow night in Boone

EDIT: NWS has added rain/snow chance to their thu night forecast
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
3km NAM really aggressive with the NW snow flurries Thursday night. Some of the high peaks around Roan Mt. receive 3-5in. of snow lol. 3km being the 3km.
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Yep. Little pockets of 2" on the mountain tops, plus a few spots getting .2"+ ZR. Doubtful, but i suppose its possible
 
Rime ice and wind snow is a sure thing for many. Accumulations likely limited to MTN tops higher than Boone.
 
It looks like the first half of November will be seasonable with near to slightly BN temperatures for most of us. For some reason November hasn't frequently torched in November like December has.
 
Gfs stays pretty much cold through out the run. Interesting times ahead.
 
accu35 said:
Gfs stays pretty much cold through out the run. Interesting times ahead.
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Maybe I’m just a miser but I’m not in love with what I’ve been seeing over the past several weeks. It’s going to be hard for winter to deliver without proof we can get, much less sustain, any sort of +PNA. That coupled with relentless western Atlantic ridging and the ever stubborn SER. I’m legit pessimistic about winter 2020 even though it’s not even winter yet
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe I’m just a miser but I’m not in love with what I’ve been seeing over the past several weeks. It’s going to be hard for winter to deliver without proof we can get, much less sustain, any sort of +PNA. That coupled with relentless western Atlantic ridging and the ever stubborn SER. I’m legit pessimistic about winter 2020 even though it’s not even winter yet
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I'm cautiously pessimistic. The SER, while not featured prominently, keeps popping up periodically over the last several runs. It seems to go away in the LR for a few runs and then eventually reappear. I'd feel better if we can start to see a sustained period of it not in the here and now and not popping up in the LR guidance. Then, I might feel like we are actually playing with a different kind of pattern.
 
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