Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we could have this pattern reappear in another month or so...
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
The Euro Control is on board with something...
Mean
#24 is the most bullish, definitely takes the cake
Mean
#24 is the most bullish, definitely takes the cake
Euro says it could be fun...
Again post game but who knows y'all might squeeze out a flurry before it's over
Yeah #24 is a thing of beauty..... remind me again why we're looking for winter weather in November? LolThe Euro Control is on board with something...
Mean
#24 is the most bullish, definitely takes the cake
The trend is definitely towards early winter storms the last 2 winters so maybe its not so crazy to think a November snow is possible.
whatalife
Moderator
Because we haven’t anything better to do and November snow does happen. I had 4.5” of snow on Nov 1st 2014. But then again I have been paying for it ever since. #nomeasurablesince
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Just don't look at the 6z GFS. It reverts back to the theme of, you guessed it, our repeating pattern of the SE ridge and SW trough, after the the Halloween front until the uber long range, at which point it taunts us with a favorable pattern. I am going all in with that forecast until we break this pattern for good.Because we haven’t anything better to do and November snow does happen. I had 4.5” of snow on Nov 1st 2014. But then again I have been paying for it ever since. #nomeasurablesince
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Ethan80963!
Member
Mean
Oh yeah I agree.... was just being ornery this morning Lol. In fact I was about to reply to @SoutheastRidge with just what you said, it's really not too crazy to think it could happen, like you said it's happened before. And honestly with the way winters are crapping out early around here maybe we need to hope for a Nov or Dec storm, get it while you can.Because we haven’t anything better to do and November snow does happen. I had 4.5” of snow on Nov 1st 2014. But then again I have been paying for it ever since. #nomeasurablesince
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We've got a nice pattern, through Mid-November through early December. We might as well start talking now because we probably won't mid-winter. as @whatalife mentioned we got nothing better to do. Lol
Bannerdude
Member
This is by no means justification for a single ensemble member 300+ hours out, but frozen precipitation is not unheard of, especially as we get into mid-November in central NC. Historical records at RDU are below:
Yeah but it's transient so hopefully not the permanent fixture it has been and steps in beating it back as Winter approaches....
Actually the EPS and GEFS both agree things could get interesting in Mid month.... long ways out but it is fun to see this early
Makes me wanna stay up after the game lol. I think the house we're staying at is above the city itself so greater chance there
Ethan80963!
Member
HSV, RDU, CLT, SPA (Spartanburg)
FWIW 12z NAM faster with the front than GFS (as it was at 6z)
For the US as a whole: yesterday's 12Z EPS was colder than yesterday's 0Z. And now today's 0Z is even colder than yesterday's 12Z. Also, the GEFS run have generally been trending colder overall. Keeping this all in mind:
From Maxar this morning:
"Today’s 1-15 Day forecast gained +21.5 GWHDDs versus yesterday’s, a majority (+17.6) of which takes place on Days 10-15. These changes are generally in line with large gains within the models, with 0z Ensemble changes of +12.2 (ECMWF) and +14.2 (GFS) versus yesterday’s 0z runs for the current Days 10-14. Though model gains were in step with each other, there remains a large difference between the modeled intensity of cold in the 11-15 Day with the GFS (119.5) yielding 19 more GWHDDs than the Euro (100.5), and our forecast coming in between at 105.3. Our 1-15 Day forecast of 281.4 GWHDDs ranks 7th-coldest for the Oct 29-Nov 12 period since 1950, and would be normal for Nov 9-23. Our 11-15 Day forecast would be closer to normal for Nov 20-24, while the GFS Ensemble projection would be normal for Nov 28-Dec 2."
From Maxar this morning:
"Today’s 1-15 Day forecast gained +21.5 GWHDDs versus yesterday’s, a majority (+17.6) of which takes place on Days 10-15. These changes are generally in line with large gains within the models, with 0z Ensemble changes of +12.2 (ECMWF) and +14.2 (GFS) versus yesterday’s 0z runs for the current Days 10-14. Though model gains were in step with each other, there remains a large difference between the modeled intensity of cold in the 11-15 Day with the GFS (119.5) yielding 19 more GWHDDs than the Euro (100.5), and our forecast coming in between at 105.3. Our 1-15 Day forecast of 281.4 GWHDDs ranks 7th-coldest for the Oct 29-Nov 12 period since 1950, and would be normal for Nov 9-23. Our 11-15 Day forecast would be closer to normal for Nov 20-24, while the GFS Ensemble projection would be normal for Nov 28-Dec 2."
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,188
- Reaction score
- 18,036
Well be in a cabin the last home game , weekend before turkey day. Knowing my luck itll monsoon all game then flip to flakes as I head down the mtn. Really gonna be tough throwing the ball on this weather. Big advantage to them unfortunately
Fountainguy97
Member
Chasing those first mountain flurries. Maybe a brief NW enhancement on the backside of this cold front can bring the first flurries of the year. Doubt I see any down here around 2000FT but maybe those higher peaks 3500+ will get a white dusting!
