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Pattern Nippy November

My two major differences between this fall and other recent falls are it anomalously hitting 100 multiple times earlier in October for several of us and the first true bottom falling out snap is going to be in November instead of October. Getting later. Worrisome, ain't it?

Would say the GFS even attempted to try to broadcast it bottoming out earlier but I think it more swung and missed badly on that weekend system.
 
I'm actually good with this, we don't need the rain in eastern NC as bad as the rest of you so hopefully this verifies

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GFS, even though it has been terrible with the timing of this front, is really starting to speed it up now. Hopefully this continues. Euro sped it up a tad also.

Odds are that the GFS will trend back slower with the cold front soon. When an often too progressive/cold biased model goes faster with a cold front 5 runs in a row, it is going to be kind of hard for it not to come back slower at some point within the subsequent few runs. Let’s see what happens. It may or may not be slower with the next run or two, but I’d bet it will by 0Z tonight. If this were not a model with tendencies to be too progressive, I wouldn’t have posted this.
 
Odds are that the GFS will trend back slower with the cold front soon. When an often too progressive/cold biased model goes faster with a cold front 5 runs in a row, it is going to be kind of hard for it not to come back slower at some point within the subsequent few runs. Let’s see what happens. It may or may not be slower with the next run or two, but I’d bet it will by 0Z tonight.
Makes sense, something to definitely watch for sure. Those are pretty large shifts also, so I wouldn't be surprised if it at least evens out in the coming runs.
 
GFS drying up on totals!☹️86E2624C-F797-4AC0-9F7C-CCE0D87FD1E8.png
 
Odds are that the GFS will trend back slower with the cold front soon. When an often too progressive/cold biased model goes faster with a cold front 5 runs in a row, it is going to be kind of hard for it not to come back slower at some point within the subsequent few runs. Let’s see what happens. It may or may not be slower with the next run or two, but I’d bet it will by 0Z tonight. If this were not a model with tendencies to be too progressive, I wouldn’t have posted this.
Good call, GFS did indeed slow the front back down. Was hoping the trend would continue.
 
Good call, GFS did indeed slow the front back down. Was hoping the trend would continue.
Slightly...anyway splitting hairs here.
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I need it dry from 8-11pm Thursday night in Boone. Don't need the weather playing equalizer for that rag- tag bunch from Statesboro. Rooting for a speed up or dry out as time approaches solution. If I would have thrown 50lbs of grass seed and fertilizer down, guaranteed I'd get these needed results.

Heres today's 12z run. This is 1 hour before Kickoff on the ole reliable GFS. Couple hours faster and we'd probably not be dealing with precip falling as this is in and out, True frontal passage fashion.

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Just saw that the last fully run Euro has Friday and not Saturday as the day of the change to me. Maybe east and southeast it's slower but even the Euro sped up.

So my NWS lowering the high 5 degrees to 71 for Friday was actually a hint of that.
 
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