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Pattern Nippy November

Rain Cold said:
Right. And I don't see more than a slightly positive PNA and a slightly negative NAO. Below is a 240 hr H5 height map, a H5 anomaly map and a 384 hr anomaly map. You essentially have your choice of crappy models nowadays, so I chose the 18z GEFS. You can see the mean doesn't display a strong west coast ridge signal or a strong ridge or block at or around Greenland or eastern Canada. Heights essentially appear to be close to normal over the Conus. I imagine in reality, you'll get semi-frequent systems moving through and seasonable temps. There's certainly no indication on any of these maps of any sort of buckling of the flow, leading to a deep intrusion of arctic air, which would support an anomalous November winter storm in the South/Southeast.

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So i guess that means we got a ways to go before we get more favorable and thats why i asked eric what i did.:)
 
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Golf7575 said:
Webb, i have one question if you don't mind answering. Moving forward, which phases of the mjo promote a colder stormier pattern based on the Pacific sst's currently and moving forward? Hopefully i said it correctly lol.
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Basically West Pacific & Western Hemisphere (phases 7, 8, & 1). By the time the MJO reaches phase 3 (East Indian Ocean), this favorable pattern usually comes to a close. If we're going to see a storm, it would come on the back end of this -NAO regime (if one comes to pass) which puts us somewhere in the first or second week of Dec.
 
Rain Cold said:
Right. And I don't see more than a slightly positive PNA and a slightly negative NAO. Below is a 240 hr H5 height map, a H5 anomaly map and a 384 hr anomaly map. You essentially have your choice of crappy models nowadays, so I chose the 18z GEFS. You can see the mean doesn't display a strong west coast ridge signal or a strong ridge or block at or around Greenland or eastern Canada. Heights essentially appear to be close to normal over the Conus. I imagine in reality, you'll get semi-frequent systems moving through and seasonable temps. There's certainly no indication on any of these maps of any sort of buckling of the flow, leading to a deep intrusion of arctic air, which would support an anomalous November winter storm in the South/Southeast.

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We are just storing the cold air in Asia until mid Dec when we can actually do something with it.

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Webb, curious your thought on how this year is working out in comparison to last year? If any, what would be the changes going forward?

I’m also wondering if we have any good examples of winters with the similar pattern you mentioned in my reply above?

Excluding the MJO, as @Myfrotho704_ mentioned below.
 
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**IF** the EURO is right in the MJO map that Webb posted a bit ago, then the phases 8, 1 and 2, that will be a very nice timing for once in winter. Also, if the mjo phase forecast is right, it actually curls into the COD on the left side...
 
KyloG said:
We are just storing the cold air in Asia until mid Dec when we can actually do something with it.

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Really hard for our cold to slosh into Europe, when it’s already there! So there is that! Feeling good about January, for a change!
 
deltadog03 said:
**IF** the EURO is right in the MJO map that Webb posted a bit ago, then the phases 8, 1 and 2, that will be a very nice timing for once in winter. Also, if the mjo phase forecast is right, it actually curls into the COD on the left side...
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Last year at this time, we were only in phase 4 of the MJO, this year we’re already approaching phase 7, +IOD probably helping aswell and once it goes back to phase 8/1/2, looks like it may slow a bit
 
deltadog03 said:
**IF** the EURO is right in the MJO map that Webb posted a bit ago, then the phases 8, 1 and 2, that will be a very nice timing for once in winter. Also, if the mjo phase forecast is right, it actually curls into the COD on the left side...
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Chris, here is the thing. Would it be better to have the AAM neutral to positive once the mjo enters phases 8,1, and 2 or does it really matter?
 
As gefs has been consistently showing, these southern solutions are starting to show
namconus_asnow_seus_24.png
 
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