• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

July Fry 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.
I think today made it like ten out of twelve with rain here and I'm not counting showers. Gonna side with Larry and say Ill be surprised if it gets really hot.
 
SD said:
Gfs which is notoriously high at 2m in the extended is hot
View attachment 86888
But it's dirty on the eastern side of the ridge and maybe a little stronger with the trough off the NE
View attachment 86889

Better convective chance and potential debris clouds = not as hot
Click to expand...
but i thought the GFS always corrects and inches away from really hot temps?

I would like a good Ridge Rider once this summer though. Those are some of the best.
 
smast16 said:
but i thought the GFS always corrects and inches away from really hot temps?

I would like a good Ridge Rider once this summer though. Those are some of the best.
Click to expand...
It's typically too hot in the extended. I know there was some issue with soil type and the feedback on 2m temps but that seems to have been corrected some in recent upgrades. It's not showing 110 everyday like it did a few years ago but it still loves to show right around 100 as you get away from D0
 
Everyone's "favorite" lol, the all-knowing Maxar, says in this morning's 15 day forecast that these are the hottest days for selected cities as the SE is hotter today:

KATL: 95 on 8/2
KRDU: 95 on 7/31 and 8/4
Memphis: 97 on 7/31 and 8/2
KDFW: 101 on 7/25-8, 8/1-2

Anyone want to do an over or under vs these forecasts for the hottest during the period through 8/4?
 
SD said:
Gfs which is notoriously high at 2m in the extended is hot
View attachment 86888
But it's dirty on the eastern side of the ridge and maybe a little stronger with the trough off the NE
View attachment 86889

Better convective chance and potential debris clouds = not as hot
Click to expand...
GaWx said:
Lol! They're saying the fry zones are in the Plains. Midwest, and Pac NW with the SE, NE, and far SW the least likely to fry though the next two weeks. They have KATL's hottest near 93, for example, which is only ~+3 vs normal. Memphis may be a target. Also, DFW should get some low 100s as has been mentioned by others.
Click to expand...
That could atleast give me rain??
 
GaWx said:
Everyone's "favorite" lol, the all-knowing Maxar, says in this morning's 15 day forecast that these are the hottest days for selected cities as the SE is hotter today:

KATL: 95 on 8/2
KRDU: 95 on 7/31 and 8/4
Memphis: 97 on 7/31 and 8/2
KDFW: 101 on 7/25-8, 8/1-2

Anyone want to do an over or under vs these forecasts for the hottest during the period through 8/4?
Click to expand...

They seem good to me. It's hard to find a lot of support for extreme 100+ stuff for Mem, Atl, Rdu even 95-100 is in the upper percent of the ensemble spreads.

That said 3-7 days of mid to possibly upper 90s is still going to stink
 
SD said:
They seem good to me. It's hard to find a lot of support for extreme 100+ stuff for Mem, Atl, Rdu even 95-100 is in the upper percent of the ensemble spreads.

That said 3-7 days of mid to possibly upper 90s is still going to stink
Click to expand...
Yep and with all the rains/soil moisture, low level moisture and heat indices will suck
 
smast16 said:
Ngl, you had me excited in the first half.

And then you came in with the cold bucket in the last part.
Click to expand...
Ha if the gfs verified I wouldn't be too worried about big heat. You offset the warm 850s with a decent CU field and better storm chances. Honestly that gfs setup is one where we could get a dying mcs that hangs around most of the day and we are in the 70s/low 80s
 
SD said:
Ha if the gfs verified I wouldn't be too worried about big heat. You offset the warm 850s with a decent CU field and better storm chances. Honestly that gfs setup is one where we could get a dying mcs that hangs around most of the day and we are in the 70s/low 80s
Click to expand...

You wouldn't be worried about those warm 850s crapping, I mean capping, convection?
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top