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July Fry 2021

GaWx

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I predict “July Fry” will end up a misnomer for the SE. Mark my words. Near normal July temperatures for the SE coming with near to wetter than normal/humid dominating. Soils are too wet for any big heatwaves. The main heat will be out west and to the north. Maybe @Dewpoint Dan and good chance @Webberweather53 and that Montana poster end up with a hot month.
 

Chazwin

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Feel like we get a big surge in temps this July that’s short lived, just to much out west that can transfer here
Yeah I think we could multiple 1-2 day surges from the release of western heat, but I also could see a good NW flow storm pattern on the backside of those surges. I don’t believe we will see widespread triple digits in the southeast this year.
 

NickyBGuarantee

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I predict “July Fry” will end up a misnomer for the SE. Mark my words. Near normal July temperatures for the SE coming with near to wetter than normal/humid dominating. Soils are too wet for any big heatwaves. The main heat will be out west and to the north. Maybe @Dewpoint Dan and good chance @Webberweather53 and that Montana poster end up with a hot month.
Agreed thank god for the thread name finally something for and by the people! This is our July 4th freedom from @SD
 

Chazwin

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If you read about the 2007 heat wave , heat index values did exceed 120 in eastern NC. So there is that at least .
That’s another thing that made that so odd back here to the west, Typically when CLT gets triple digits, the humidity is at least down a bit… not in August 2007. There were quite a few times when temperatures were 102-104 and the heat indexes were around 110.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Nice. Got that one in just under the wire...unless that is a May shot. :)

Either way, I really like that one.
Got lucky with a cell near Heath springs SC (storm died off now) but yeah crazy how it took till June 30th to get a shot lol
 

Lickwx

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That’s another thing that made that so odd back here to the west, Typically when CLT gets triple digits, the humidity is at least down a bit… not in August 2007. There were quite a few times when temperatures were 102-104 and the heat indexes were around 110.
There was a town in Washington state that recorded an 82/82 temp/dew combo. It was humid when it was at its hottest but even they managed some high humidity at times .
 

SD

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To go back to the historic heatwaves for NC and why we were talking about it potentially making a run at us here are the heatwave 500mb anomalies rolled back a few days past where NWS ILM showed roughly +7-10 days
1625142422199.png
and here is the GFS at 6 hours from this morning
1625142448402.png

Thankfully though this year we are likely not going drop a trough into the NW and push the heat east

1625142608696.png
500mb composite near or during the start of the heat
1625142762414.png

We were close to frying but all signs point to it not happening for now. Watch later in the month though as we may try to rotate through a similar evolution.
The euro does have a short heat run mainly for Va/mid Atlantic
sfct.conus (6).png
sfct.conus (5).png sfct.conus (4).png
 
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SD

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I predict “July Fry” will end up a misnomer for the SE. Mark my words. Near normal July temperatures for the SE coming with near to wetter than normal/humid dominating. Soils are too wet for any big heatwaves. The main heat will be out west and to the north. Maybe @Dewpoint Dan and good chance @Webberweather53 and that Montana poster end up with a hot month.
Do you have KATLs heatwave data handy? I'm wondering if heat in GA, AL, TN, MS has a different mechanism where NC and much of SC aren't as hot
 

Lickwx

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Do you have KATLs heatwave data handy? I'm wondering if heat in GA, AL, TN, MS has a different mechanism where NC and much of SC aren't as hot
I’d wager at least parts of Georgia share their hottest temps in similar setups to us . Far north eastern , eastern Georgia perhaps . Atlanta South and sw probably not .
 

NickyBGuarantee

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Not bad for July. Hope it stay this way. US Drought Map SE
View attachment 85984
Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked 4B9C20C1-C66A-42EF-91DB-2DE191F83256.jpeg
 

SD

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Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked View attachment 85985
Cart horse... chickens hatching
 

metwannabe

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Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked View attachment 85985
1) Not sure what your idea of "fast" is, for many areas it started back in April and hasn't gone bye bye just yet
2) All chips in the middle on the 3k NAM, I've seen worse wagers but also seems I've read these comments before
3) Definitely getting a tropical system in here next week? Got those lotto numbers?
4) Never mind.....
 
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