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July Fry 2021

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I predict “July Fry” will end up a misnomer for the SE. Mark my words. Near normal July temperatures for the SE coming with near to wetter than normal/humid dominating. Soils are too wet for any big heatwaves. The main heat will be out west and to the north. Maybe @Dewpoint Dan and good chance @Webberweather53 and that Montana poster end up with a hot month.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feel like we get a big surge in temps this July that’s short lived, just to much out west that can transfer here
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Yeah I think we could multiple 1-2 day surges from the release of western heat, but I also could see a good NW flow storm pattern on the backside of those surges. I don’t believe we will see widespread triple digits in the southeast this year.
 
GaWx said:
I predict “July Fry” will end up a misnomer for the SE. Mark my words. Near normal July temperatures for the SE coming with near to wetter than normal/humid dominating. Soils are too wet for any big heatwaves. The main heat will be out west and to the north. Maybe @Dewpoint Dan and good chance @Webberweather53 and that Montana poster end up with a hot month.
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Agreed thank god for the thread name finally something for and by the people! This is our July 4th freedom from @SD
 
Lickwx said:
If you read about the 2007 heat wave , heat index values did exceed 120 in eastern NC. So there is that at least .
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That’s another thing that made that so odd back here to the west, Typically when CLT gets triple digits, the humidity is at least down a bit… not in August 2007. There were quite a few times when temperatures were 102-104 and the heat indexes were around 110.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nice. Got that one in just under the wire...unless that is a May shot. :)

Either way, I really like that one.
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Got lucky with a cell near Heath springs SC (storm died off now) but yeah crazy how it took till June 30th to get a shot lol
 
Chazwin said:
That’s another thing that made that so odd back here to the west, Typically when CLT gets triple digits, the humidity is at least down a bit… not in August 2007. There were quite a few times when temperatures were 102-104 and the heat indexes were around 110.
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There was a town in Washington state that recorded an 82/82 temp/dew combo. It was humid when it was at its hottest but even they managed some high humidity at times .
 
To go back to the historic heatwaves for NC and why we were talking about it potentially making a run at us here are the heatwave 500mb anomalies rolled back a few days past where NWS ILM showed roughly +7-10 days
1625142422199.png
and here is the GFS at 6 hours from this morning
1625142448402.png

Thankfully though this year we are likely not going drop a trough into the NW and push the heat east

1625142608696.png
500mb composite near or during the start of the heat
1625142762414.png

We were close to frying but all signs point to it not happening for now. Watch later in the month though as we may try to rotate through a similar evolution.
The euro does have a short heat run mainly for Va/mid Atlantic
sfct.conus (6).png
sfct.conus (5).pngsfct.conus (4).png
 
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GaWx said:
I predict “July Fry” will end up a misnomer for the SE. Mark my words. Near normal July temperatures for the SE coming with near to wetter than normal/humid dominating. Soils are too wet for any big heatwaves. The main heat will be out west and to the north. Maybe @Dewpoint Dan and good chance @Webberweather53 and that Montana poster end up with a hot month.
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Do you have KATLs heatwave data handy? I'm wondering if heat in GA, AL, TN, MS has a different mechanism where NC and much of SC aren't as hot
 
SD said:
Do you have KATLs heatwave data handy? I'm wondering if heat in GA, AL, TN, MS has a different mechanism where NC and much of SC aren't as hot
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I’d wager at least parts of Georgia share their hottest temps in similar setups to us . Far north eastern , eastern Georgia perhaps . Atlanta South and sw probably not .
 
Tagat said:
Not bad for July. Hope it stay this way. US Drought Map SE
View attachment 85984
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Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked 4B9C20C1-C66A-42EF-91DB-2DE191F83256.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked View attachment 85985
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Cart horse... chickens hatching
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked View attachment 85985
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1) Not sure what your idea of "fast" is, for many areas it started back in April and hasn't gone bye bye just yet
2) All chips in the middle on the 3k NAM, I've seen worse wagers but also seems I've read these comments before
3) Definitely getting a tropical system in here next week? Got those lotto numbers?
4) Never mind.....
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yep was just about to post this … drought going bye bye fast .. and after the big wet #3 it should be a memory … add a tropical system later… the maps wiped clean .. here’s the 3km .. no more dry spot .. we’re about to get socked View attachment 85985
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Except for a dry slot forming in the northern half of Forsyth county, which happens to be where I live. That dry slot is showing in an area that's 4"-6" below normal for the last 90 days. And with my luck, it'll get in that minimum.
 
metwannabe said:
1) Not sure what your idea of "fast" is, for many areas it started back in April and hasn't gone bye bye just yet
2) All chips in the middle on the 3k NAM, I've seen worse wagers but also seems I've read these comments before
3) Definitely getting a tropical system in here next week? Got those lotto numbers?
4) Never mind.....
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1. The worst drought we’ve really had show up is D2 in small areas and we’ve maintained just a slight as normally dry drought for this entire time … not that lethal of a thing
2. Not all my chips ..here are the cams along with the most recent HRRR and most recent Fv3 high res which show all across the board a widespread 1-2 inches with many places receiving pockets of 3-4 inches as well. A widespread 1-2 inches is a beautiful thing for a drought that’s only abnormally dry. Also Fv3 wasn’t done running yet 23A962D4-33AC-43F7-AFD2-992049985D78.jpeg0DC107E0-AFA5-419A-99D8-001C0C27AE13.jpeg6E5DB1C6-2762-463A-9F7B-48D980D89EE8.jpegE8F64457-C1BE-42B0-AF3C-66BCC48EA797.jpeg
3. I’m not saying we’re definitely getting a tropical system next week but several models have a lot of ensemble tracks that pull it in our direction .. whatever the system may be it’ll bring tropical moisture with it and if we’re lucky that would certainly put drought to
Bed if it wasn’t already … abnormally dry ain’t that bad it could be severely worse! ??‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
1. The worst drought we’ve really had show up is D2 in small areas and we’ve maintained just a slight as normally dry drought for this entire time … not that lethal of a thing
2. Not all my chips ..here are the cams along with the most recent HRRR and most recent Fv3 high res which show all across the board a widespread 1-2 inches with many places receiving pockets of 3-4 inches as well. A widespread 1-2 inches is a beautiful thing for a drought that’s only abnormally dry. Also Fv3 wasn’t done running yet View attachment 85987View attachment 85988View attachment 85989View attachment 85990
3. I’m not saying we’re definitely getting a tropical system next week but several models have a lot of ensemble tracks that pull it in our direction .. whatever the system may be it’ll bring tropical moisture with it and if we’re lucky that would certainly put drought to
Bed if it wasn’t already … abnormally dry ain’t that bad it could be severely worse! ??‍♂️
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You got me
 
metwannabe said:
Tomorrow looks great for rainfall but in addition to the U. S. Drought monitor map posted above, here is the departure from normal over last 90 days. Trust me there are some hoping tomorrow isn't a let down....

View attachment 85986
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Indeed. It's a hard time of the year to overcome dry conditions as we are maxed out on our usage side of the water budget. A inch of rain tomorrow will be great things will be green, crops will get some water but it's can kicking and maintenence. Much rather have a week of scattered to numerous storms to get 2 or 3 rains to recharge versus 1 rain then 5-7 days of nada.

Look at it this way each day .15-.2 of water is used/lost if we get 1 inch of rain it's gone in 5-7 days. It's hard to make up multi inch deficits when you are equalling your use. I received 5 inches of rain in June my yard used/lost 4.5-6 inches of rain in the month, I broke even, given the dry April/May my 90 day budget is negative hence the d0-1 around. I get 1 inch of rain tomorrow good, by 7/6 if I get no more rain my net is 0 I'm "dry" again
 
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SD said:
Indeed. It's a hard time of the year to overcome dry conditions as we are maxed out on our usage side of the water budget. A inch of rain tomorrow will be great things will be green, crops will get some water but it's can kicking and maintenence. Much rather have a week of scattered to numerous storms to get 2 or 3 rains to recharge versus 1 rain then 5-7 days of nada.

Look at it this way each day .15-.2 of water is used/lost if we get 1 inch of rain it's gone in 5-7 days. It's hard to make up multi inch deficits when you are equalling your use. I received 5 inches of rain in June my yard used/lost 4.5-6 inches of rain in the month, I broke even, given the dry April/May my 90 day budget is negative hence the d0-1 around. I get 1 inch of rain tomorrow good, by 7/6 if I get no more rain my net is 0 I'm "dry" again
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True true true .. good explanation .. I think we get more than 1 though but of course we’ve been through this rodeo before so I’ll believe the numbers when I see them … also that 5-7 day end period would probably be around when we could possibly get that tropical whatever from Elsa … we’ve had good luck so far this year .. let’s keep it rolling
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
True true true .. good explanation .. I think we get more than 1 though but of course we’ve been through this rodeo before so I’ll believe the numbers when I see them … also that 5-7 day end period would probably be around when we could possibly get that tropical whatever from Elsa … we’ve had good luck so far this year .. let’s keep it rolling
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If we get multiple inches that'll certainly be helpful. I personally think Elsa goes ots
 
SD said:
If we get multiple inches that'll certainly be helpful. I personally think Elsa goes ots
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Just remember, when he speaks of "drought", he means the dust bowl death to scorpion droughts that persist underneath the mega heat dome of doom not this penny ante abnormally dry crap.
 
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