July Fry 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Zander98al]

Nice little storm. A super cell over bham. Nice view of it where I'm at.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow

 

[Zander98al]

Wow View attachment 86851View attachment 86852

I thought that city was called wedgelord lol

 

[SD]

Oof

 

[Zander98al]

OofView attachment 86853

Heat wave?

 

[RBR71]

OofView attachment 86853

Seems I recall you mentioning some time back that basically it was only a matter of time...

 

[LickWx]

OofView attachment 86853

On my birthday as well? Some of the most epic weather in weather history has happened on my birthday in the past. Bring it on !

 

[SD]

Heat wave?

We will see. Euro has a tendency to get too ridgy and dry at the sfc post D7

 

[SD]

Seems I recall you mentioning some time back that basically it was only a matter of time...

Lets see if the eps supports it. By 240 our 850s are 20-24c that'll be quite warm and sfc dews are in the 60s so the euro is going full heat ridge

 

[cd2play]

Heat wave?

That’s what she said

 

[SD]

Not terrible

 

[cd2play]

View attachment 86854
Not terrible

It is for Tennessee..... but I want to squeeze in one more hot and dry weekend before summer ends

 

[SD]

It is for Tennessee..... but I want to squeeze in one more hot and dry weekend before summer ends

Yeah kinda sucks for you guys and the north Ga/al/ms crowd

 

[Myfrotho704_]

that’s nasty

 

[Zander98al]

That’s what she said

? I don't understand lol

 

[SD]

Welp

 

[cd2play]

Welp
View attachment 86856

#poolweather

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Welp
View attachment 86856

Northwest flow? It at least shouldn’t stay dry

 

[SD]

Northwest flow? It at least shouldn’t stay dry

Getting just about too close to the ridge center

 

[SD]

Eps mean isn't terrible here a few days of low 90s but the 90th % is slowly increasing to near 100. Mean qpf is like 1.75 that's suboptimal for 2 weeks

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Eps mean isn't terrible here a few days of low 90s but the 90th % is slowly increasing to near 100. Mean qpf is like 1.75 that's suboptimal for 2 weeks

Things usually get better as we close with time .. hopefully our luck continues

 

[SD]

Oops

 

[Tarheel1]

that’s nasty View attachment 86855

I don’t like

 

[Avalanche]

Boring weather day. No sun, no rain, just clouds.

 

[Avalanche]

OopsView attachment 86859

Looks like Newfound Gap and Lake Waccamaw eek out a shower.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ugly

 

[Rain Cold]

Ugly View attachment 86861View attachment 86862View attachment 86863

Need to get Canada cold first. Step-down process

 

[Chazwin]

Ugly View attachment 86861View attachment 86862View attachment 86863

You can see the progression of that ridge would eventually lead it to setting up off the northeast coast… again like other modeling has been showing right in time as hurricane season begins to ramp up. I really have a strong feeling that the southeast coast is gonna take a hit this year.

 

[GaWx]

Things usually get better as we close with time .. hopefully our luck continues

The GEFS and EPS have both been warm biased in the SE US, especially the GEFS and more-so in the wetter areas (as per the bias corrected maps posted below). Therefore, I'm still not worried about a widespread SE heatwave anytime soon, especially down in my area as wet soils are the best insurance against heatwaves per history. The hottest days may actually be just before this period. A few days in row of a few degrees warmer than normal would mean a few typical SE hot days but not even close to a heatwave #July-NoFry:

 

[SD]

Ugly View attachment 86861View attachment 86862View attachment 86863

That's an impressive pv lobe in Canada. Might have some frost up there

 

[BHS1975]

Gfs cut back to 1 hot day View attachment 86848

I picked a good week to be off.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

The GEFS and EPS have both been warm biased in the SE US, especially the GEFS and more-so in the wetter areas (as per the bias corrected maps posted below). Therefore, I'm still not worried about a widespread SE heatwave anytime soon, especially down in my area as wet soils are the best insurance against heatwaves per history. The hottest days may actually be just before this period. A few days in row of a few degrees warmer than normal would mean a few typical SE hot days but not even close to a heatwave #July-NoFry:

View attachment 86867

What is Maxar saying?!

 

[GaWx]

What is Maxar saying?!

Lol! They're saying the fry zones are in the Plains. Midwest, and Pac NW with the SE, NE, and far SW the least likely to fry though the next two weeks. They have KATL's hottest near 93, for example, which is only ~+3 vs normal. Memphis may be a target. Also, DFW should get some low 100s as has been mentioned by others.

 

[cd2play]

Lol! They're saying the fry zones are in the Plains. Midwest, and Pac NW with the SE, NE, and far SW the least likely to fry though the next two weeks. They have KATL's hottest near 93, for example, which is only ~+3 vs normal. Memphis may be a target. Also, DFW shoudl get some 100s as has been mentioned by others.

We’ll get our 8 to 10 above normal in December.

 

[RBR71]

What is Maxar saying?!

That it ain't walking weather

 

[SD]

18z gfs briefly maxes out 850s at 24c in parts of NC but it's upper pattern continues to inch away from the hot 0z run

 

[iGRXY]

We will probably have maybe 2-3 days of low 90’s in the western Carolinas, probably mid 90’s the closer you are to the coastal plain and I95 but I doubt it gets as ugly as the long range models are showing and doubt it last very long at all.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

18z gfs briefly maxes out 850s at 24c in parts of NC but it's upper pattern continues to inch away from the hot 0z run

Shocking

 

[GaWx]

18z GEFS is the coolest run of the day in the SE for the period ~7/28. But no, it still ain't walking weather! The only walking wx is inside my house.