July Fry 2021

[SD]

Mcs signal on the Euro

 

[Metwannabe]

Mcs signal on the Euro
View attachment 86529
View attachment 86530

Mountains will rip it to shreds, the OFB and leftover winds should feel good though....

 

[SD]

Mountains will rip it to shreds, the OFB and leftover winds should feel good though....

Yeah euro wedges in a little bit of lower dew air for a time as well. Could see any real mcs activity being to our west

 

[ryan1234]

Yeah euro wedges in a little bit of lower dew air for a time as well. Could see any real mcs activity being to our west

Still have plenty of time for things to change things in our favor. A lot of good MCS's have come from the NW and reorganized as it moves into the Foothills/Piedmont. It wouldn't take much for us to score something decent.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Need that setup where some leftover stuff crosses the mountains mid morning and the ofb/leftover stuff emerges out into the foothills around 1-2pm, I can recall those being the best MCS setups

 

[SD]

Not sure how the eps looks post D10 but I'm not a fan of where the gefs is

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not sure how the eps looks post D10 but I'm not a fan of where the gefs is
View attachment 86531

Hot but at least that’s a nice mountain > Piedmont convection look

 

[Avalanche]

Mountains will rip it to shreds, the OFB and leftover winds should feel good though....

Thats exactly what happens when they move east of the Triad (Gso, WS, Burlington). You think you have a bad storm coming but nothing as the storm dies and you are left with wind and remnant stratocumulus clouds.

 

[Avalanche]

Not sure how the eps looks post D10 but I'm not a fan of where the gefs is
View attachment 86531

Have to imagine that dome of HP will lead to plains heat. The pacific needs a break.

 

[SD]

Hot but at least that’s a nice mountain > Piedmont convection look

Yeah it should at least keep some convection going along with any weak waves in the flow. Geps is much less amplified

 

[Avalanche]

Yeah it should at least keep some convection going along with any weak waves in the flow. Geps is much less amplified View attachment 86533

Do you think if its more amplified we see upper 90s in that time?

 

[SD]

Have to imagine that dome of HP will lead to plains heat. The pacific needs a break.

Yeah we might see it at least flattened in the west and a backing down of the 594-600+ ridges for at least a short time. Thing is we probably just cycle back to another western ridge in time. We likely need a recurring typhoon to shake things up and break the current cycle to help the west.

 

[SD]

Do you think if its more amplified we see upper 90s in that time?

If the gefs were to be correct yes. Right now the means on the gefs D10+ for mby are between 91 and 95 with a few maxes over 100. Given the potential advection of high 850s from the western heat dome we could over perform. The only mitigating factors would be soil moisture and clouds/convection. Since the center of the upper ridge isn't close by I doubt that is an extreme heat look just annoyingly hot

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s happening! ??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Avalanche]

View attachment 86536

Bring it!!!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 86536

This will help tamper any extreme heat that’s for sure

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Looks like the storms today evaporate right before central NC … oh give me a break .. I need them to develop early enough so that we can still have the sun to help bring them along

 

[SD]

Looks like the storms today evaporate right before central NC … oh give me a break .. I need them to develop early enough so that we can still have the sun to help bring them along

Let them die. That residual ofb will play well tomorrow

 

[SD]

@Lickwx when do our average highs start dropping? Has to be in the next 2 weeks. The normals link on the RAH site isn't working.

Nvm found it. Average highs start decreasing Monday. Winter is on its way boys