• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

July Fry 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.
Dewpoint Dan said:
For me personally I consider 5+ days of 90+ to be a heat wave but I guess everyone has their own definition of a heat wave.
Click to expand...

I would agree if we were talking about the Midwest, West Coast or NE.

Not so much in the SW or the South where the average highs are near or above 90*F in the Summer. In fact, for Dallas, 90*F would be considered a *COOL* summer day.
 
It's 68/64 in late July. I'll take that every morning please. It was actually pleasant leaving the house this morning. Almost felt crisp outside when I walked out the door. Thought it was September for a moment.
 
Shaggy said:
It's 68/64 in late July. I'll take that every morning please. It was actually pleasant leaving the house this morning. Almost felt crisp outside when I walked out the door. Thought it was September for a moment.
Click to expand...
Have to look at what's going on at D7-10 and wonder if we can get a real front through during the first week of August. Looks like a few eps members hsve a complete while many hang it up over the region
 
SD said:
Have to look at what's going on at D7-10 and wonder if we can get a real front through during the first week of August. Looks like a few eps members hsve a complete while many hang it up over the region
Click to expand...

We've had some hot days but nothing prolonged. Last week was as close to a "heat wave" as we have had all year and it was just barely above average but extremely humid.

Got a feeling we will soon be turning our attention seaward as the season really should get started over the next couple weeks.
 
SD said:
The euro having too much ridging in the east in the warm season is as bad as the gfs with too much troughing in the cold season.

We still probably hit 95 ahead of that trough though
Click to expand...
I don't know if it usually does that or not. But this year, models have wanted to heat us up in the LR quite a bit.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know if it usually does that or not. But this year, models have wanted to heat us up in the LR quite a bit.
Click to expand...
Yeah not really sure the cause but I'll take it. If we make it to fall without a significant heatwave I'll consider that a huge win. We've dodged some bullets with these big ridges getting cut off before they make it east we had the makings a couple times to cook with the high heat in the northern plains and south central Canada. I do wonder if we feel the effects in the 2nd half of Sept into October and finally start to trough the west
 
Lickwx said:
Hold it as long as possible , I really am sold on the idea of a troughy west this winter / ridge east. I’ll take my warmest winter ever .
Click to expand...
Not exactly all fun and games, typically get cold rain CAD with a western trough/ridge east and a cold vortex in SE Canada which normally happens with that H5 pattern, while we watch SC and GA enjoy 70s
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not exactly all fun and games, typically get cold rain CAD with a western trough/ridge east and a cold vortex in SE Canada which normally happens with that H5 pattern, while we watch SC and GA enjoy 70s
Click to expand...
I’m not talking about last winter , 2012? 06? 90? 50?32? Typically get cold rain Cad Is only true with a strong se Canada vortex which is not what I said ! Weenie ! More proof of your weenie double standards added to my list ! Let me weenie in peace !
 
SD said:
Yeah not really sure the cause but I'll take it. If we make it to fall without a significant heatwave I'll consider that a huge win. We've dodged some bullets with these big ridges getting cut off before they make it east we had the makings a couple times to cook with the high heat in the northern plains and south central Canada. I do wonder if we feel the effects in the 2nd half of Sept into October and finally start to trough the west
Click to expand...
I would rather the heat come 2 months from now than now. At least by then it will be tolerable.
 
SD said:
US drought monitor
View attachment 86997

Zoomed
View attachment 86998
Click to expand...

What you’re showing on the big map is the very likely answer to your question about the models being too hot in the eastern US. There has been a warm bias in much of the area with mainly ample to wet soil moisture, which has been the case in the bulk of the SE. The ridging has been persistent out west and in the NW as well as N Plains, which has been helped by drought in those areas. Therefore, the fact that ridging into the SE US on the models hasn’t held up makes sense rather than it being due to luck/randomness.

Looking for near 92 today in KATL.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It’s going to be hard to reverse a pattern with a drought set up like that in the west .. and just about none in the East .. the ridges hold as much as the troughs will as well .. ugly stuff for out west
Click to expand...
I’m fortunate enough to have a retired meteorologist as a next door neighbor. He was in the Navy and then worked for the NWS for a number of years. We were talking earlier this week the drought and fires in the west and he said from looking at the long range models and just how entrenched that ridge is out west, he thinks it’s going to take the ENSO to cycle through all the way into a strong El Niño in order to switch things around… he doesn’t see the signs of that happening for at least a year.
 
GaWx said:
Today's update for hottest of next 15 days
Atl: 94 on 7/31
Rdu: 94 on 7/28 and 8/1
Mem: 96 on 8/1 and 8/5
Dfw: 101 on 7/26-7 and 8/2-4

So, they have Dfw the same as yesterday, but they cooled Atl, Rdu, and Mem by one degree.
Click to expand...

Today's update with hottest forecasted over next 15 days:

Atl: back up 1 to 95 (7/29)
Rdu: still at 94 (7/29)
Mem: still at 96 (8/2-3)
Dfw: up 1 to 102, their hottest forecast yet (8/2-3)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top