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July Fry 2021

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J.C. said:
I can say the same for here, but I keep getting side swiped and missing the heavy rain. I've never had so many rain occurances for just over 3" for the month. The surface gets damp, but the ground is hard.
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But 3” MTD is near normal and you don’t have to worry about runoff away from your lawn. With lighter amounts, it just about all successfully infiltrates the ground. The opposite would be, say, one 3” downpour in, say, one hour. A large percentage of that would not get absorbed by your lawn and instead would just runoff. For a real life example, Elsa provided me something close to 3” in one hour. This lead to lots of street flooding and puddling. I’m sure my lawn lost a decent portion of that to runoff into the street.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hottest GFS run of the year, basically brings all that heat out west east starting around day 6 due to the NWly/Wly flow..... View attachment 86820View attachment 86821View attachment 86822View attachment 86823
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All we can do is hope and pray this continues to stay in the long range … luckily even now when it’s usually biased warm a few degrees it’s only showing upper 90s to some low 100s around … but regardless that plus combo of humidity … I better get a full bowl of popcorn
 
metwannabe said:
Might as well
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Had to know it would nose in at some point even if just for 3-7 days. Thankfully other than that ugly 0z gfs not much support for extreme heat 100+ but that euro run would easily support multiple days either side of 95. With the NW flow we will be subjected to debris clouds, old mcs complexes/ofbs, and convective chances that might help keep highs slightly down.
 
SD said:
We dont like to make things easy for ourselves. Right on the front edge of when hurricane season might wake upView attachment 86830
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Yeah this is a look that has been showing in that time frame for a while now. This is not only look that brings them to the SE coast… it brings them inland as well
 
Flood watches for Upstate????
 
SouthATLwx said:
100*F+ fultility call for DFW definitely looking to be in jeopardy by next week. Apparently delayed, but not denied.

On the plus side, maybe the heat will feel slightly less intense with the sun angle slightly lower than it would be in late June.
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I figured it was coming eventually but it was a nice run lol. They are even saying Tulsa may hit 100 which apparently it's been two years for them

Still hopefully with all the rain it'll be short lived
 
Lickwx said:
Slowly moving east . Mountain west has been breaking records last 2 weeks . Much of Montana was 105-110 , breaking all time records . Now it moves a bit more east! Went from Dakota > PNW > Mountain West > Dakotas and east ?
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We will see.
Once the wave over CA moves out the ridge should start to retrograde again. There's a few day window to get hot before we temper back icon_z500_vort_us_61 (6).png
 
SD said:
We will see.
Once the wave over CA moves out the ridge should start to retrograde again. There's a few day window to get hot before we temper back View attachment 86834
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We are in as -PDO. Things have been favoring heat here for a while , I’m honestly surprised the west coast has been hogging the heat. Especially in a -PDO. Calling it now there’s going to be record rain and flooding/ snow out west this winter.
 
Lickwx said:
We are in as -PDO. Things have been favoring heat here for a while , I’m honestly surprised the west coast has been hogging the heat. Especially in a -PDO. Calling it now there’s going to be record rain and flooding/ snow out west the next few winters
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Fixed.
 
Man, had so much heavy rain yesterday that I thought I would need a boat to get home from work.

5O4.gif
 
Lickwx said:
We are in as -PDO. Things have been favoring heat here for a while , I’m honestly surprised the west coast has been hogging the heat. Especially in a -PDO. Calling it now there’s going to be record rain and flooding/ snow out west this winter.
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Not with that big warm anomaly reaching the Canada coast.
 
SD said:
Not with that big warm anomaly reaching the Canada coast.
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Not really , that’s a classic strong -PDO . They have big warm anomalies in the central pacific then a ring of cold around them . I’d wager that stuff reaching the coast gets up welled very quickly . Stuff south of it is cool and north of it. It’s the gulf of Alaska area you want the big warm anomaly for us to get cold out east . Least that’s how I understand it . Pacific hasn’t been supportive of us being cold lately.
 
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Wanna good laugh? Was at 0.25 event total at 5am this morning. It did rain for another few hrs by radar but if I have more than 0.5 event total when I get home I'll be shocked
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Christ dude there has got to be some science behind this
 
Lickwx said:
Not really , that’s a classic strong -PDO . They have big warm anomalies in the central pacific then a ring of cold around them . I’d wager that stuff reaching the coast gets up welled very quickly . Stuff south of it is cool and north of it. It’s the gulf of Alaska area you want the big warm anomaly for us to get cold out east . Least that’s how I understand it . Pacific hasn’t been supportive of us being cold lately.
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We will see how it goes through fall. Gfs keep dropping system after system just west of the Canada coast through D16 so they are going to change anyway.

Edit. But yes I do agree there is more of a -PDO signature as a whole since you have so much warm east of Japan and around the aleutians. I'm just saying that warm extension throws a monkey wrench in what would be straight climo since typically you would see well BN along the Can coast
 
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