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Pattern Januworry

2013-2014 was a very solid winter pattern as well. That was to me the last great winter, at least for my area.

This right here is just an example of how drastic the differences of 50 miles and 500 feet of elevation can be the difference in a region. The north and northwest burbs have had 12-15 inches of snow over he past 4 winters, while south and east have had almost nothing. Hopefully something more widespread happens this January.
 
Seriously, do we need Dubuque crap in here? Clogs the thread. Make a Dubuque thread........
It's kind of been explained numerous times, we allow post from members all over and maybe one day there will be sub-regional threads. Until such time his post about weather discussion in his backyard are welcome, just like post about Texas, Ok, Ga, etc. Also, your comment was more whambyish as many are becoming in here and I'd actually love to see those decrease in here. Thanks

We even allow some guy from Montana to complain about how cold it is up there while we bask in the torch of the ser. Lol
 
I keep asking for someone to show me evidence of a sustained wintry pattern for the SE and no one has yet to provide said evidence.
No one is saying sustained wintry pattern coming for months on end … but we’re seeing significant signs that a shake up of the CURRENT sustained pattern of SER and days on days of 70s is going to change that is called pattern change. Remember where we live the SOUTH EAST we don’t see weeks and weeks of a great pattern .. we usually just go through roller coaster rides and when we are headed down we watch for winter potential. How long has everyone lived here? This is the first thing you have to understand being a winter weather lover but also being in the SE.
 
Ok, let's see what we have. Looking at D10+ because we know the pattern isn't great beforehand (although it's not impossible to sneak some wintery weather in for some parts of the region). LR stuff in the D10 period and beyond will obviously change. But maybe we can see something by comparing the images below and find us some evidence, at least from our beloved models, of a better pattern on the horizon.

0z GFS 240

0z 240.png

0z GFS 384

0z384.png

0z CMC 240

0zcmc.png

0z ECFWMFCMEF

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png

6z GFS 234

6z234.png

6z GFS 384 Back to square 1

6z 384.png

trainwreck.jpg

On to 12z, I guess.
 
No one is saying sustained wintry pattern coming for months on end … but we’re seeing significant signs that a shake up of the CURRENT sustained pattern of SER and days on days of 70s is going to change that is called pattern change. Remember where we live the SOUTH EAST we don’t see weeks and weeks of a great pattern .. we usually just go through roller coaster rides and when we are headed down we watch for winter potential. How long has everyone lived here? This is the first thing you have to understand being a winter weather lover but also being in the SE.
Dude you might want to reel it in a bit. Why go to the extreme with everything? No one suggested months on end sustained wintry pattern but as RC pointed out we usually do have sustained period or two to work with. And remember where you live? NC usually has longer sustained periods then other's in the SE, so these "remember we live in the South East" general statements don't pan out for everyone. Now I'd really like to see you answer his first question posed to you a few days back, seriously generally curious as to what you see that says we are headed for a much better pattern.
 
Ok, let's see what we have. Looking at D10+ because we know the pattern isn't great beforehand (although it's not impossible to sneak some wintery weather in for some parts of the region). LR stuff in the D10 period and beyond will obviously change. But maybe we can see something by comparing the images below and find us some evidence, at least from our beloved models, of a better pattern on the horizon.

0z GFS 240

View attachment 99645

0z GFS 384

View attachment 99647

0z CMC 240

View attachment 99648

0z ECFWMFCMEF

View attachment 99649

6z GFS 234

View attachment 99655

6z GFS 384 Back to square 1

View attachment 99656

View attachment 99657

On to 12z, I guess.
I don’t see anything that wrong with any pictures you showed .. what I see is absolutely no sign of a strong SER which is what everyone should be feeling great about.. all the other stuff 240 out specifically is nonsense .. we’ve seen literal exact opposite flips from images 240+ Within the time span of 6 hours .. there’s no need to think the world is ending with anything out there
 
No one is saying sustained wintry pattern coming for months on end … but we’re seeing significant signs that a shake up of the CURRENT sustained pattern of SER and days on days of 70s is going to change that is called pattern change. Remember where we live the SOUTH EAST we don’t see weeks and weeks of a great pattern .. we usually just go through roller coaster rides and when we are headed down we watch for winter potential. How long has everyone lived here? This is the first thing you have to understand being a winter weather lover but also being in the SE.
And no one is asking for a "months on end" wintry pattern. And I don't need your sarcasm. I've been genuinely asking for evidence of a favorable pattern for us snow lovers. All I get in return is one-liners and !? symbols. I'm legit trying to discuss the pattern here. I don't see a favorable pattern for snow here.
 
Dude you might want to reel it in a bit. Why go to the extreme with everything? No one suggested months on end sustained wintry pattern but as RC pointed out we usually do have sustained period or two to work with. And remember where you live? NC usually has longer sustained periods then other's in the SE, so these "remember we live in the South East" general statements don't pan out for everyone. Now I'd really like to see you answer his first question posed to you a few days back, seriously generally curious as to what you see that says we are headed for a much better pattern.
Fair. Here’s most of the entire run of the most recent GFS (remember I still believe anything 240 out can change on a dime) yes for people in Florida and southern areas of the SE states you’re still in line to see possible warm temperatures 60-70 degrees .. but for most everyone else? Consistently much colder than 70s every single day. This is a pattern change. If you live by the coast or in Florida I wouldn’t be expecting extended periods of cold any time of the year A8EF4FF0-198F-42F6-B7F0-56FF259B3581.jpeg7F67DEE7-FA50-49CF-9404-E16869D97AA7.jpeg40F938FB-B426-401E-B955-8C928524BFB0.jpegDE059326-DA24-4C0C-9766-19915504D333.jpegFFC4A63B-33CC-477D-A66C-21EAB2D6F15A.jpegE17B9EF4-7684-45C6-BEDF-217887DCE033.jpeg
 
View attachment 99643

I haven't seen much evidence on the LR guidance that the better MJO phases are going to help us. But that may change. The 0z GFS at least had the ridge axis out west in a better position farther east to get the yellows out of the SE. Unfortunately, the 6z GFS went back to crap at the end.

I agree. I'm still waiting for the Aleutian Ridge to move. It just won't. And it won't until the MJO stops spinning around phase 7 and tropical forcing migrates east. Until then we're stuck still, and it's beyond frustrating. I will say the ridge seems to have drifted north, a bit east and tilted less positively allowing more of a conus trough. This bleeds enough cold air east that we cool down, go a bit below normal which will be nice.

However, we've lost the -NAO to pretty much a +NAO and we still have the pacific ridge and -PNA. I doubt that's enough to get us a winter storm, but we'll see. I think it's the best we get this winter. And welcome back WAR! It's been so long! ? ?

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png
 
I don’t see anything that wrong with any pictures you showed .. what I see is absolutely no sign of a strong SER which is what everyone should be feeling great about.. all the other stuff 240 out specifically is nonsense .. we’ve seen literal exact opposite flips from images 240+ Within the time span of 6 hours .. there’s no need to think the world is ending with anything out there
Correct. I didn't show the world ending. I showed a train wreck for a sustained wintry pattern in the SE. If your goal is not to have days on end of 70+, then mission accomished (just don't look at the 6z 384 GFS). But if you're looking for sustained cold in any of those images for our region, good luck. Big PV bottled way up in Canada, no helpful -NAO/-AO, no big tall western ridge, ugly trough tilted west though the Pacific NW. = Not a sustained cold and wintry pattern for the SE US. Will we get there later? Probably at some point.
 
Fair. Here’s most of the entire run of the most recent GFS (remember I still believe anything 240 out can change on a dime) yes for people in Florida and southern areas of the SE states you’re still in line to see possible warm temperatures 60-70 degrees .. but for most everyone else? Consistently much colder than 70s every single day. This is a pattern change. If you live by the coast or in Florida I wouldn’t be expecting extended periods of cold any time of the year View attachment 99662View attachment 99663View attachment 99664View attachment 99665View attachment 99666View attachment 99667
I'm not too excited about lows in the 30s/40s
 
Correct. I didn't show the world ending. I showed a train wreck for a sustained wintry pattern in the SE. If your goal is not to have days on end of 70+, then mission accomished (just don't look at the 6z 384 GFS). But if you're looking for sustained cold in any of those images for our region, good luck. Big PV bottled way up in Canada, no helpful -NAO/-AO, no big tall western ridge, ugly trough tilted west though the Pacific NW. = Not a sustained cold and wintry pattern for the SE US. Will we get there later? Probably at some point.
I suppose that’s fair. I look for cold and anything below 70s is now doing it for me lol. But we need cold air to even thing about winter weather and we are finally getting that piece to the puzzle .. the rest comes with time .. I suppose it’s the other posters who continue doom and gloom that have irked me cause clearly it’s not that doom and gloom right I just think they trolling
 
Honestly the last several years have been tough to come by multiple days on end with temperatures near or below freezing for daytime highs. I guess I can only speak for my corner of the SE, in the lower MS valley. Average temps in January run around 60/40 here anyway, so getting multiple bouts of temps below 55/35 would still be a win. One winter storm with that pattern, and I'm good for the winter. I guess it helps if we define our terms and expectations.
 
Maybe look back to 13/14, 09/10. I think those were good winters.
Even in both of those winters there were fairly long stretches of mild weather. Much of January 2010 was mild after the first week until we saw the pattern change in the last few days and we had a major storm as soon as cold returned. Even as good as February 2014 was KCLT still ended 1 degree above average for the month. In my memory, I don’t think any winters had true wall to wall cold in the southeast in my memory… I do hear people talk about ‘76-77, but that’s to far back for me to remember, even still if one were to look up the data that winter probably has some mild periods as well… we are in the south after all.
 
Even in both of those winters there were fairly long stretches of mild weather. Much of January 2010 was mild after the first week until we saw the pattern change in the last few days and we had a major storm as soon as cold returned. Even as good as February 2014 was KCLT still ended 1 degree above average for the month. In my memory, I don’t think any winters had true wall to wall cold in the southeast in my memory… I do hear people talk about ‘76-77, but that’s to far back for me to remember, even still if one were to look up the data that winter probably has some mild periods as well… we are in the south after all.
76-77 was cold but January was record cold then boom February record warm . So even that wasn’t wall to wall.

Edit : February 1977 was cold but then hit 84 end of the month .
 
76-77 was cold but January was record cold then boom February record warm . So even that wasn’t wall to wall.

Edit : February 1977 was cold but then hit 84 end of the month .
Looking at those two months, you can see why if you’re a snow lover in the NC, upstate SC, northern GA, and Tennessee, you don’t want cold to completely dominate a pattern. Most of that stretch was very dry for those areas.
 
I suppose that’s fair. I look for cold and anything below 70s is now doing it for me lol. But we need cold air to even thing about winter weather and we are finally getting that piece to the puzzle .. the rest comes with time .. I suppose it’s the other posters who continue doom and gloom that have irked me cause clearly it’s not that doom and gloom right I just think they trolling
I hear you. I think we all might have a different idea of doom and gloom. I would consider that "oh it's not going to ever snow again" or "we're never going to have a shot at cold and snow this winter" or "I give up" (in December). Talking about a pattern that isn't really all that conducive for cold and snow isn't really doom and gloom. The other side of the coin -- blind optimism and ignoring reality is just as bad.

Most here want cold and snow...I think we can all pretty much agree on that. But if you look objectively at what is being shown currently, it doesn't' look like an alignment of favorable parameters to produce a cold and snowy pattern (of any duration) will occur over the next two weeks. Again, I'm not saying we can't perfectly time something during that time.

As you said, the pattern is changing to some degree. But the bulk of the cold air is still mostly too far away from us. We may get seasonably cool, but I think we can agree that is not a cold and snowy pattern. Beyond 2 weeks, who knows.

I'm optimistic that we can get a period where we see below normal temps, with a chance for snow. But we're going to have to move the western ridge east for that to happen or have the biggest, most perfectly placed -NAO you've ever seen.
 
I hear you. I think we all might have a different idea of doom and gloom. I would consider that "oh it's not going to ever snow again" or "we're never going to have a shot at cold and snow this winter" or "I give up" (in December). Talking about a pattern that isn't really all that conducive for cold and snow isn't really doom and gloom. The other side of the coin -- blind optimism and ignoring reality is just as bad.

Most here want cold and snow...I think we can all pretty much agree on that. But if you look objectively at what is being shown currently, it doesn't' look like an alignment of favorable parameters to produce a cold and snowy pattern (of any duration) will occur over the next two weeks. Again, I'm not saying we can't perfectly time something during that time.

As you said, the pattern is changing to some degree. But the bulk of the cold air is still mostly too far away from us. We may get seasonably cool, but I think we can agree that is not a cold and snowy pattern. Beyond 2 weeks, who knows.

I'm optimistic that we can get a period where we see below normal temps, with a chance for snow. But we're going to have to move the western ridge east for that to happen or have the biggest, most perfectly placed -NAO you've ever seen.
Fair but I think a period of below normal temps with even a shot at snow is better than an extended period of 60-70s with absolutely no chance of snow and even rain at times that’s a change I’m willing to accept with open arms at this point
 
It's kind of been explained numerous times, we allow post from members all over and maybe one day there will be sub-regional threads. Until such time his post about weather discussion in his backyard are welcome, just like post about Texas, Ok, Ga, etc. Also, your comment was more whambyish as many are becoming in here and I'd actually love to see those decrease in here. Thanks

We even allow some guy from Montana to complain about how cold it is up there while we bask in the torch of the ser. Lol
Actually I’m from Alabama and moved to Montana two years ago but it’s true I will admit I have complained about it being to cold up this way but regardless I’m a die hard snow fan who moved from the south to witness snow greatness but if it wasn’t for my job I wouldn’t even be up here I’ll still be in Tuscaloosa complaining like everyone else who don’t get snow in there backyard… sorry for the banner guys carry the hell on lol
 
There’s no need for doom and gloom when this has been the trend ?? maybe I’m just an extremest troll though ?View attachment 99681

From about D9 through 264 (which is as far as I can see now), it does look better. It's not a snow pattern but it should feel much more seasonal. Just talking about the Op, though, and like you said, it's not set in stone. We should see systems trek across the country and at least provide some rainfall.
 
12Z GFS coming North, lining up with Euro! 6z vs 12z86ED5766-F6FB-4A2D-ADC2-1EE407597E78.png6F41C9DE-D29A-4957-9B54-B6B998788C0F.png
 
There’s no need for doom and gloom when this has been the trend ?? maybe I’m just an extremest troll though ?View attachment 99681
Out a few frames further and it looks to me that the GFS is lining up for one of its famous end-of-run southern snowstorms. Let's see.
 
Out a few frames further and it looks to me that the GFS is lining up for one of its famous end-of-run southern snowstorms. Let's see.
It’s eh afterwords seasonal like rain cold said but I love to see no deep troughing off the west coast and instead some +PNA … would at least lean any new cold air coming down towards central and eastern US more than it has been
 
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