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Pattern Januworry

I think the key now is getting the TPV further south to push all of this further south if there’s resistance and it’s too far north we’re just going to get this wave after wave pattern in warm air which means severe weather .. bring the TPV south and you’re introducing much more cold air and possible CAD into the picture as it showed on last nights 00z.. obviously we would all love a +PNA but clearly sustaining one of those is a rarity so far
 
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Downright ugly run by the GFS. Hopefully the GEFS will not agree.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Temps hold in the upper 60’s diurnally for days on end. What a time to be alive.


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The implications to agriculture are going to be pretty terrible if we stay this warm through January, everything will be in full bloom.
 
I think I’m taking a break for a few weeks. This just broke me.

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Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm sure you'll get more freezes but the deep south is a different story. Atlanta's climate is becoming more and more like North Florida was 30 years ago. No guarantees anymore. The weather/climate is changing drastically before our very eyes.
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Well, I wouldn't go that far. This is the beginning of a grand solar minimum. The jet stream is very loose and experiencing high amplitudes. It will tend to get stuck and give some areas extremes (cold or warmth), repeatedly. What you are witnessing is how a la nina will interact with the quiet solar cycle. Next year, if we are in el nino, things could be much different in the southeast. There will be no deep trough of any consequence in the east this winter. Maybe some quick shots of cool to cold continental air and then back to above normal. The MJO won't matter. Next year we could very well be experiencing the coldest winter in 60 years.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially for out west, which will have record snowfall and cold. We are going to have an early and extended spring, starting now.
 
The 6Z shows the way out starting about hr 300. I don't know if it's correct but it's a possible way out. Lower heights trying to drop into the Aleutians and weakens and pushes the GOA ridge close to the coast. Meanwhile the ridge north of Alaska strengthens and takes on a more true -EPO look gfs_z500a_namer_fh300-384.gif
 
Brent said:
Yeah what are the odds of that though? There is no way it stays warm all winter
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Well back in the day there were a couple years where it was warm all winter . It’s possible alright . 31-32 was the year we hit 79-80 in all 3 winter months here . It’s hard though .
 
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