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Pattern Januworry

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah wouldn’t bank on much more than mountain snow with this first system. Looks like a decent low accum setup for those guys. Will be nice to see them get on the board.
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I wouldn't entirely discount it for areas outside of the mountains. There's still the chance/time for it to materialize into greater significance.
 
Chandler said:
snow mean surprisingly showing up a lil for that cold chasing moisture set up View attachment 99610
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This is a classic middle Tennessee Flurry special. I’m not complaining as it will be our first flakes of the season if it happens. As I said earlier I’m more interested in the cold air that finally looks to be coming then any individual snow storm that may or may not happen. As it stands it’s looking like I won’t get above freezing during the day on Sunday plus the lows should get into the teens for the coldest night of this winter so far.
 
NoSnowATL said:
View attachment 99555
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And it's rolling back to 6. Lol. i'm fairly certain a few people said "That's not how that works".

It's actually comical. Take the most 'oof' ways to fail, and that's what's going to happen. We'll never sniff anything more than a day or 2 in phase 8 (if any) as we roll back to 6. I bet we see a quick +PNA as the pattern reloads, and we get a transient cold shot. After that it'll be all she wrote.
 
Parker said:
View attachment 99626View attachment 99627View attachment 99628I know I’m grasping for straws here but it’s interesting to see both the 06z GEFS and EPS members tick up with snowfall members for our area. Also the UKMET looks very interesting as well.
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You are not grasping IMO. Trends today will be telling. Gfs took a nice reverse trend back toward more southern energy consolidation. Other models slowly coming on board for at least a novelty event for some. CMC and ICON now have some snow.

Interested in 12z!
 
Poimen said:
Overall there still isn't any sign of a sustained wintry pattern for the SE as a whole. The MJO may also be headed for phase 6 come mid-late January. As others have noted, the next two weeks may present the best chance, but even that is not too hopeful at this time.
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There’s nothing showing the MJO going back into phase 6. They’ve all had the MJO either entering phase 8 or circling through the COD back into phase 7 which any of those is great for sustained cold in the East. Also you’re seeing way more ridging above Alaska and pushing these vortexes East creating a +PNA behind it. This is the best the models have looked in a month and the odds of cold and some form of wintery weather in the East and southeast is a much much better possibility. Some of y’all would find negativity if Jesus himself was coming back to bring us home to the promise land.
 
smast16 said:
And it's rolling back to 6. Lol. i'm fairly certain a few people said "That's not how that works".

It's actually comical. Take the most 'oof' ways to fail, and that's what's going to happen. We'll never sniff anything more than a day or 2 in phase 8 (if any) as we roll back to 6. I bet we see a quick +PNA as the pattern reloads, and we get a transient cold shot. After that it'll be all she wrote.
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It’ll will probably get back to phase 6, but keep in mind that the progression lately has been at a snail’s pace so I would be suprised to see it not reach 6 until late in January. I do think we’ll get a decent 2-3 week window from around 1/7-8 until around the 25th with it phases 7/8 or on the left side of COD. Definitely not saying wall to wall cold for that period, but I do think we’ll have some opportunities
 
iGRXY said:
There’s nothing showing the MJO going back into phase 6. They’ve all had the MJO either entering phase 8 or circling through the COD back into phase 7 which any of those is great for sustained cold in the East. Also you’re seeing way more ridging above Alaska and pushing these vortexes East creating a +PNA behind it. This is the best the models have looked in a month and the odds of cold and some form of wintery weather in the East and southeast is a much much better possibility. Some of y’all would find negativity if Jesus himself was coming back to bring us home to the promise land.
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ECMWF Ens and Ensamble long range says otherwise. As a matter of fact, only the Euro OP has us enter Phase 8, and it's already beginning it's regression back. Remember when models all had us entering Phase 8 around Christmas, and even then, some had us high amping right into 1. The trend since Mid December has been to slow down, and spin in circles.

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These RMM charts have been deceiving imo, what we have been seeing is Convection progressing east but new/re occurring convection forming in the MC which won’t be picked up on a RMM chart, and this sucks because it puts a cap on a better pattern occurring
 
iGRXY said:
Some of y’all would find negativity if Jesus himself was coming back to bring us home to the promise land.
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84806afeb5e20a1dd2374e95b62a5c2b.gif

I haven't seen much evidence on the LR guidance that the better MJO phases are going to help us. But that may change. The 0z GFS at least had the ridge axis out west in a better position farther east to get the yellows out of the SE. Unfortunately, the 6z GFS went back to crap at the end.
 
Somosdel said:
Since when do we ever get sustained.
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I hate to open this can of worms because the "good patterns don't produce like they used to" police will skydive in out of the blue and hijack us, but we usually have a sustained period or two each winter where the window for winter weather widens a bit.
 
Unless we see some crazy changes happening,I wouldn't expect more than 1-2 day cold shots and some snow for climo favored areas ,followed by more above temperature for areas east of the mountains for the rest of winter . Things might be different for areas west of the Mountains due less SE ridge influence,but really I still don't see much to be excited in the long range. Basically a rinse and repeat of what we have been seeing for the last several of years(except for the 2017/18 winter).
 
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