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Pattern Januworry

The models are doing what I suspected they would a few days to a week ago … they CHANGE nothing 240+ out will be the same when it comes closer to verification … plus the MJO phases just don’t correlate to a long lasting never ending SER and warmth eventually the pattern has to get shaken up as we are progressing slowly but surely to phase 8 eventually models will grab a hold of that and we see random complete different solutions than what we have been seeing .. happens all the time and I think this is just the beginning hopefully
 
iGRXY said:
Problem is after that look, the GFS looks like its about to reload right back into the same crap we are dealing with now.
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Key is it’s reloading further out but as we close towards verification let’s see what actually happens as the cold shot showing up now for early January used to be that same crap pattern just a couple days ago
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I suppose because verbatim no snow for SE. I'm just glad to see some hints at a pattern change in the past few operational runs.
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Getting some snow on the ground in the midwest would be progress, but getting the PNA closer to neutral would be monumental.
 
When every model is showing a dumpster fire of a pattern, you're not going to magically flip a pattern in one run. The GEFS looks MUCH better from Hr 225 through so far. We are going from the mean average being in the mid 60's a few runs ago to them now being average to slightly below average. That is a win right now.
 
iGRXY said:
When every model is showing a dumpster fire of a pattern, you're not going to magically flip a pattern in one run. The GEFS looks MUCH better from Hr 225 through so far. We are going from the mean average being in the mid 60's a few runs ago to them now being average to slightly below average. That is a win right now.
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Maybe not a win but def moving the chains near the goalpost.
 
Avalanche said:
Maybe not a win but def moving the chains near the goalpost.
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We don't need to be worried about snow right now. We still have 2 more months of winter work with. Snow shouldn't even be in our minds right now with the looks we have been seeing the last few days on the models. Just getting temperatures back to average or slightly below average and the H5 pattern moving into a much better situation should be the goal right now. You get even a neutral PNA with a favorable MJO/-NAO/-AO (looks like we will have this part) and we will definitely be sitting on the right side of averages for getting a winter storm into some portion of the southeast.
 
iGRXY said:
When every model is showing a dumpster fire of a pattern, you're not going to magically flip a pattern in one run. The GEFS looks MUCH better from Hr 225 through so far. We are going from the mean average being in the mid 60's a few runs ago to them now being average to slightly below average. That is a win right now.
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Slightly below avg for you maybe. But still above avg for many.
 
Stephenb888 said:
I’m still confused as to where this golf weather Christmas week has been. It’s been cold everyday this week with frost every morning.
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Unfortunately it’s coming just in time for Christmas. My hi was 41 yesterday but will be 70 Christmas Day ???????????????????????????
 
iGRXY said:
When every model is showing a dumpster fire of a pattern, you're not going to magically flip a pattern in one run. The GEFS looks MUCH better from Hr 225 through so far. We are going from the mean average being in the mid 60's a few runs ago to them now being average to slightly below average. That is a win right now.
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Some people just wanna watch the world burn....specifically the south lol
 
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