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Pattern Januworry

This is a beautiful sight to behold on the 12Z EURO. I'd love to see where this would go past 10 days.
ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png
 
SD said:
Hey just saying all I've seen for the past 30 days are day 13, 14, 15, 16 red maps with oof, crickets and golf emojis weird that when it looks decent it's quiet
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I’ve been excited about it just to get stoned by the warm crowd who just says every run is dumpster fire even when it’s not even remotely ? I just stop responding and I’ll be excited in my own world lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’ve been excited about it just to get stoned by the warm crowd who just says every run is dumpster fire even when it’s not even remotely ? I just stop responding and I’ll be excited in my own world lol
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Lookong forward to seeing this potential evolve. Just hope it doesnt ride up through TN-eastern KY.
 
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Avalanche said:
Surprised you think it will turn that late. Id be happy if WNC cashed in.
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It'd be touchy, wave coming down into the lakes might help suppress out front and a new arctic boundary is drifting east as the low was getting going in the gulf. The jet was pretty far left though. If the wave in the lakes were even 24 hours faster we likely see a lower amp version and go snow/ice across a good part of the board. All in all day 16 but nice to see winter still exists
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS looks like it’s trying to western ridge
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You made me look and I see it later in the run and the jet is starting to retract too which should allow for more pac ridging. Sometimes though I feel like the way the gfs and gefs drive this pattern is a better way for sustained cool to cold and the eps mean has some fail points.
 
The pacific still has a torchy look, but the models are trying to establish a pseudo east-based Greenland block (as the heights pump ahead of this weekend's system), which prevents the SE ridge from pumping.

Seems like the outcome will be entirely dependent on the evolution of this weekend's system, and whether it's a strung out POS vs a more significant storm.
 
Broken024 said:
Pics or it didn't happen
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Here is the wxbell version it's not very helpful ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-tmin_tmax_boxplot-0692800.png
Here is the weather.us version with the line graphs that's a little more helpfulScreenshot_20211228-153055_Chrome.jpg
Seeing the clustering of members with highs 35-45/50 is nice. Obviously there's still room to go to what the warm members have but this run had less of those and given the time of year it doesn't take a lot more than seasonal cold to be in the game
 
FWD made a funny...:D

000
FXUS64 KFWD 282024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021

Now for the upsetting news...I have removed the mention of snow from
the forecast. Previously we had a mention of sprinkles or flurries
early Saturday morning as the base of the upper level trough moved
overhead. With the upper level trough having slowed down in the
latest model runs, the column will likely have dried out enough
by the time the trough arrives that snow, or any precipitation,
will be very, very hard to come by. It may not be entirely out of
the realm of possibility as we still have a few days of model runs
to assess.
 
RollTide18 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png
Is there anything to this on the GFS or should I just pay it no mind?
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Need a weak secondary low to form up and track over Fla. Then we are money, if the cold gets in. And it times right...and the haints don't get it, and a butterfly in Peru doesn't sneeze, and more of us have been good rather than bad, and we all wish real hard, but yeah, there's a chance for some flurries, or a mega storm. It's a mystery of life ....if, if, if :)
 
Sheesh we are deadly close to something here the 18z ICON and GFS would probably be backside snow flurries verbatim .. but very slight adjustments can make this thing a much bigger deal .. I’m hungry for ensembles350BFC42-B447-4F92-A94B-3A5EE27F91B8.jpeg17CCDA85-DAC7-4EDF-A1D2-356DFD353BC7.jpeg
 
Broken024 said:
Monster anal frontView attachment 99575
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One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
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Oh for sure
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
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I've seen a many disappointing 1600ft snows especially when I worked in north cove at Baxter. So unless a low trys to pop on the tail its a no go.
 
Our 500MB energy on the GFS has been trending steadily away from a southern lobe to a strung out front passage. This won't cut it besides NW snow flurries. We need to get back to the cutoff/southern lobe look from yesterday. Negative tilt would help too.

Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.

C41438FB-084E-4A40-8F3A-02E272625624.gif
 
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