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Pattern Januworry

Well at least @NorthDFWwx , @Lickwx , and the warm/stormy lover sides of @tennessee storm and @Myfrotho704_ would like this and at least Mack is near normal, but that Montana guy would freeze his britches off and most of the rest of us in the SE, including myself as well as the cold lover sides of tennessee storm and fro wouldn’t like this. The SE warmth is there at the end unlike the last two runs, which had the SE near normal:

5CC409AC-5A97-4082-946F-D44A1835D9C3.png

But before I get some shut-eye, I feel obligated to post a good map, a weenie map from the 18Z CFS for mid January when I hope the MJO will be in either phase 8 or 1:

D8A22B0B-415A-4AE1-A52E-51F331BF658B.png
 
While I’m not very familiar with patterns past or present... for those that can remember the famous January 25, 2000 storm that brought nearly 24” of snow to the Raleigh area... we actually had a pop up thunderstorm around 7:00 am a week or two prior to that storm. I remember temps were in the 70’s that morning. It was a crazy storm. Anyone remember that? Yes, I’m that old.


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HurricaneSolomon said:
While I’m not very familiar with patterns past or present... for those that can remember the famous January 25, 2000 storm that brought nearly 24” of snow to the Raleigh area... we actually had a pop up thunderstorm around 7:00 am a week or two prior to that storm. I remember temps were in the 70’s that morning. It was a crazy storm. Anyone remember that? Yes, I’m that old.


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I mean part of me really wants to lash out at you thinking your old cause you remember something that happened 22 years ago.......:)
 
DT was fairly optimistic. I think he may have just been trying to get people off the ledge honestly. Most of his claim was based on the winds around the equator turning westerly in Jan and rapidly weakening the La Nina. He also used the 0Z EPS from yesterday that had the cold bleeding east and thought it would continue to progress east. I didn't agree with that since he mentioned nothing about the huge Aleutian ridge that was stationary on all models. That is clearly going to reinforce the trough on the west coast and flex the SER and deflect any attempt at cold getting east outside of New England. There is 0 evidence that this garbage pattern is going anywhere over the next 2 weeks.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
DT was fairly optimistic. I think he may have just been trying to get people off the ledge honestly. Most of his claim was based on the winds around the equator turning westerly in Jan and rapidly weakening the La Nina. He also used the 0Z EPS from yesterday that had the cold bleeding east and thought it would continue to progress east. I didn't agree with that since he mentioned nothing about the huge Aleutian ridge that was stationary on all models. That is clearly going to reinforce the trough on the west coast and flex the SER and deflect any attempt at cold getting east outside of New England. There is 0 evidence that this garbage pattern is going anywhere over the next 2 weeks.
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Dt tells what people want here … honestly believe that
 
tennessee storm said:
Dt tells what people want here … honestly believe that
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I've noticed that sometimes too. But then other times, he has no problem going warm. He is a moody person, and I honestly believe his mood influences his forecasts sometimes.
 
tennessee storm said:
Dt tells what people want here … honestly believe that
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I definitely believe that too. It's clear to anyone on this board that the Aleutian ridge is the reason we're in this mess. And it doesn't move on any modeling. That ridge is a product of the bad Pacific pattern so I suppose it could be shaken up when the MJO ever decides to move. I don't see how La Nina weakening helps us. Even if it does you'd be looking at Feb and with the lag it's too late for us.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I definitely believe that too. It's clear to anyone on this board that the Aleutian ridge is the reason we're in this mess. And it doesn't move on any modeling. That ridge is a product of the bad Pacific pattern so I suppose it could be shaken up when the MJO ever decides to move. I don't see how La Nina weakening helps us. Even if it does you'd be looking at Feb and with the lag it's too late for us.
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It'll be interesting to see how the western ridge rebuilds after/if it takes some hits later in the month. If you are looking for a way out we have a non 0 chance coming up. It's probably low but I'm a thirsty man in the desert and I'm just trying to make the best of the elephant flop I have to drink
 
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SD said:
It'll be interesting to see how the western ridge rebuilds after/if it takes some hits later in the month. If you are looking for a way out we have a non 0 chance coming up it's probably low but I'm a thirsty man in the desert and I'm just trying to make the best of the elephant flop I have to drink
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The good thing is this can flip in a matter of days. As bad as this is we've been in a lot worse scenarios recently. History shows the MJO will progress forward eventually and I'm curious to see what that does for us. I'll take this upcoming warmth if it means the stars align in mid January right in peak climo.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I definitely believe that too. It's clear to anyone on this board that the Aleutian ridge is the reason we're in this mess. And it doesn't move on any modeling. That ridge is a product of the bad Pacific pattern so I suppose it could be shaken up when the MJO ever decides to move. I don't see how La Nina weakening helps us. Even if it does you'd be looking at Feb and with the lag it's too late for us.
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Right…I mentioned a while back that pattern persistence with that Aleutian ridge is the problem. The MJO is stuck in the mud. I don’t think it’s ridiculous to consider that we don’t really taste cold until well into February or March.

Now there are some indications that La Niña breaks later this winter. But again it could be too late. I do think the Midwest and the Northeast will salvage winter.


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