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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Given where the icon is and how many days are left, I agree with @webb this thing will go north-west the final 48hours. Still a solid winter storm for the foothills and mtns tho. Lower elevations may be dealing with ice around Charlotte IMO.
 
The biggest thing that I’m taking away from this run of the ICON is that it continues to show a strong CAD in place with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in in central and western NC… with its warm bias this continues to line up well with other models on CAD strength
 
Lickwx said:
Do you think geography explains why it tilts so early ? Or it’s favored to tilt there ? The “bottom” of the Appalachian mountains are in Birmingham so to speak , things take the path of least resistance and without something blocking it to the east it’s going to tilt earlier where it’s more geographically favored to do so . Would I be correct in this analysis?
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I'm not sure there would be enough torque from the apps to really affect the pattern but that's a big brain question
 
smast16 said:
No, it was closer to what was shown yesterday runs with a flatter system. Not a roided up Miller A/B like today's trends
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Yes. Some of us would benefit with a little weaker shortwave. This run was weird and hooked up with the baja energy and it kept it less consolidated. I wouldn't put much stock in it.
 
Yep some just look at the snow map and don't consider how it got there. The ICON actually shows you how it can still trend weaker, our energy is getting sheared more by the Baja ull and thus never closes off and is flatter, weaker, but a high ratio event on the north side. It's the ICON yada yada yada

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So my TWC point forecast right now has a total accumulation of 7-14 inches of snow between Saturday evening and Sunday night… lol. No mention of any mixing… I definitely don’t buy that as while I certainly expect to at least get a significant amount of sleet if not some ZR as well
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I think the biggest snow winner if I chase would be Mount Rogers, Virginia. Gonna be warm nose into the foothills (Yadkinville) at minimum. Still a solid winter storm with lots to iron out but that’s my thinking so far on chasing this one.
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Id go to highlands or somewhere in Southern Jackson or Transylvania counties. They always get smoked in these setups.
 
iGRXY said:
I definitely fear the warm nose but I just really find it hard to believe that the LP is going to come THAT far north. This CAD is extremely strong. Way stronger than our usual CAD highs during winter storms.I want to wait until we are in the NAMs range before I can definitely say sleet and ZR are going to be a huge issue around the 85 corridor.
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I hear you, remember the warm nose is often underforecasted and often comes in sooner than expected; the upstate has been especially prone to this over the past few years. We definitely dont want this low to crank up anymore, or if it does it needs to dig even more.
 
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