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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

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Chazwin said:
Something interesting about that 2014 storm is that the low basically tracked right up I-95 yet there was still a good period of heavy snow on the front end before heavy sleet and some ZR on the NC Piedmont, then the foothills and western Piedmont got absolutely plastered by the deform band on the backside
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Plastered by sleet got almost 3in here of pure sleet. I despise that storm was promised all snow. Thats why I never bank on all snow in these amped up storms. I like where we are sitting currently but nervous is an understatement lol where that low tracks up the coast will have big implications on the p-types and transition lines. Will make and break ppl on here.
 
Broken024 said:
If I am remembering correctly the people in Raleigh were expecting pretty much rain only on that one but ended up getting some snow/sleet.
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I believe your right… they were expecting to get a lot more in the way of ZR, but the front end thump of snow came in earlier than expected… now with that low track, RDU did warm towards freezing more quickly than back towards CLT, but that is expected with that low track. With that storm I started off in the low 20s and it wasn’t until the deform band was pulling out the next day that the temperature going above freezing. If the CAD is strong as is being indicated, western areas from the Triad down to CLT metro into the eastern Upstate and west will hold onto CAD easier even after the feed of fresh cold air is shutoff…it takes a bit of a in-situ CAD
 
SD said:
Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
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Do you think geography explains why it tilts so early ? Or it’s favored to tilt there ? The “bottom” of the Appalachian mountains are in Birmingham so to speak , things take the path of least resistance and without something blocking it to the east it’s going to tilt earlier where it’s more geographically favored to do so . Would I be correct in this analysis?
 
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