I think if you live in Morrisville brier creek falls lake you have a shot to stay below freezing as you get into central wake 33-34, east wake and here might be pushing 40
I've lived on the line for many a storm these past few years. I've done good but it sucks to sweat out the transition line being so close. The Wake County cut off seems to be a real thing; but as I've said earlier, I'm banking the CAD is stronger and the low ends of being father east.
From RAH:
The overwhelming majority of the forecast interest is obviously on
the Saturday night - Monday time period, and for good reason.
Previous model solutions were somewhat unclear with the
GFS/GEFS/ECENS all indicating the potential for wintry precipitation
for our area, while the deterministic
ECMWF was the outlier in
showing a system to our south with little in the way of impactful
weather across
NC. Today`s
ensemble data and 12Z deterministic
guidance has come into better agreement, albeit with a curve ball in
the form of a pronounced warm nose across Coastal Plain and central
Piedmont. While all the models indicate the potential for precip
Saturday night through Sunday night as an initial low dives through
the Midwest into the Deep South, the guidance is also showing a
secondary coastal low developing Sunday morning (Miller-
B style)
with a pronounced warm nose from 925-850mb extending well inland
Sunday afternoon. For being vastly different 12 hours ago, both the
EC and
GFS deterministic show 40-50kt easterly 925-850mb winds with
temperatures forecast to rise to around +1C in the western Piedmont
and up to around +6C across the Coastal Plain. Cold air would
eventually wrap back around the system as it exits to the northeast
early Monday morning, perhaps chasing the
moisture out of the area
in the process.
At this stage of game, despite an apparent
convergence of solutions
with today`s 12Z deterministic guidance and suggestions of support
from their
ensembles,
there is still a lot of uncertainty that needs
to be sorted out. Precip chances continue to increase during this
period, but the potential for a substantial warm nose could result
in some areas that see snow, ice, rain, or a mix of all the above
with this event.
Much will ultimately depend on how closely the low
stays to the coast and the strength/position of the surface ridge to
our north. We`ll continue with the mention of rain/snow for Sunday
into Monday but still too early to talk amounts or
icing potential
with any degree of certainty.