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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

LovingGulfLows said:
IMO, I can see an area of enhanced snowfall just north of the sfc wedge front boundary. The bitterly cold air from the wedge lifts the advancing warm moist air from the southwest. The Euro showed it centered over much of the ATL metro where we saw 1+ inch per hour rates at the start of the storm. That's where much of the snow could pile up for many places.
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Yes we've seen time and again the initial waa surge undermodelled with precip breaking out sooner than anticipated.
 
SD said:
I'm not trying to rain on parades here at all I'm just telling you guys from experience you can watch all of the CAD you want and all of the sfc low tracks you want but the mid level features are your primary ptype drivers. The better hope to lock in snow/ip longer is to have an initial surge of fgen WAA that rapidly cools the column and out performs model expectations which can hold off the ever lurking mixing line longer than expected so you can pile up snow but even then if the 850 low is too far NW you eventually lose
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Yeah the 850 seems like it is always at least 100-150 miles NW of the surface low in these storms which is why we need the surface low offshore lol....

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Arcc said:
The storm I would compare it to right now is the storm in February 2015 that absolutely lit up north AL and GA except a little farther south with the chance of going even farther south.
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SD said:
I'm not trying to rain on parades here at all I'm just telling you guys from experience you can watch all of the CAD you want and all of the sfc low tracks you want but the mid level features are your primary ptype drivers. The better hope to lock in snow/ip longer is to have an initial surge of fgen WAA that rapidly cools the column and out performs model expectations which can hold off the ever lurking mixing line longer than expected so you can pile up snow but even then if the 850 low is too far NW you eventually lose
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Perfect post. Have to know that warm nose will be around and hard to pickup until almost game time.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Isn't the problem up in RDU timing? This slowed down and gave the 50/50 more time to pull north and high pressure to slide east and then a north pull with the low and eroding CAD?
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Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
 
This set up looks fantastic. A few things that I have learned over the years (this is NE GA/Upstate Specific):

1. being in the bullseye this far out is not always a good thing
2. We have not really seen a storm like this modeled for a couple of years so it is exciting to see, however, there will be shifts as we get closer to the event. those shifts will make a big difference between the type and amount of precip that falls
3. what I see is the potential for a great winter storm for much of the Southeast, and with fairly cold temps for a storm for this area. the set up appears to be going along what the "typical" set up is for much of N GA to get frozen precipitation. I am following this closely and am hopeful
4. the storm may "disappear" from the models for a while and then show back up as we get closer

all in all this looks to be the best chance for a lot of the board in a couple of winters
 
SD said:
Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
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Yeah, that northern energy coming out of Canada is being modeled stronger and picking up that wave earlier. This was not on the previous runs as much.
 
SD said:
Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
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Ultimately, don’t we need to simply hope for a less strong and consolidated energy, so that it does not tilt negative so soon?
 
SD said:
Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
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Yep, we’re honestly closer to a dec 2002 then a mar 1980, I’m sure many see snow and accumulating snow (especially in favored areas in Miller Bs) but this is turning icy
 
SD said:
Not really the stronger earlier negative tilt pulled the whole thing far enough west that we eat WAA in the mid levels. If it were to go negative over say Macon or Augusta instead of Birmingham rdu would be back in the game for a more significant system
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I haven't looked at it much other than the pretty maps on here, but if the CAD isn't retreating then I kind of agree with what Allan Huffman said on Twitter that he doesn't buy the low riding that far inland with that strong of a CAD in place. It seems to be in a good spot off of SC then goes due north into the NC coastal plain. That has to be an odd track right? I want to see this thing just as modeled for GA and SC but then move ne of the NC coast and dump 6-10 all the way from ATL to RDU. But that may be wishcasting idk
 
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