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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

iGRXY said:
NAM is more sheared still through 66. And our 50/50 has really slowed down and gained strength. It warms 850's in the short term but as the low continues north it works in tandem to funnel in cold air all through the atmosphere further south as our storm is coming into the picture.
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Has some negative dew points (-1) pushing into NE NC.
 
My takeaways comparing the 18z to the 12z Nam
-Stronger High Pressure and in a more favorable spot slightly further west.
-Stronger Confluence that helped keep the HP a bit west
-Shortwave was slightly weaker. Many frames it stayed open where it was closed off at 12z
-Weaker surface low
-Surface low was a touch faster than 12z. This seemed to be because the Shortwave wasn't digging quite as much earlier in the run.
 
packfan98 said:
My takeaways comparing the 18z to the 12z Nam
-Stronger High Pressure and in a more favorable spot slightly further west.
-Stronger Confluence that helped keep the HP a bit west
-Shortwave was slightly weaker. Many frames it stayed open where it was closed off at 12z
-Weaker surface low
-Surface low was a touch faster than 12z. This seemed to be because the Shortwave wasn't digging quite as much earlier in the run.
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Good stuff and as you mentioned it is keeping the the wave open a little longer each run. NAM is decent inside of 60 hrs, curious to see if it continues to stay open further east with each successive run now
 
BufordWX said:
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the north and east Atlanta suburbs get in on that front end snow band for a few hours Sunday morning before changing over to freezing rain. I would even say that we may end up below freezing all day Sunday based off some of the models. Kinda feels like Feb. 2014.
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Where it stands now I'd suggest snow, sleet, freezing rain, sleet, snow for our area. Really hoping the freezing rain portion is kept to a minimum.
 
WxGSO said:
Modeling the CAD is always the trick. Moisture is NOT going to be a problem with this storm. It's going to be a very bad ice storm for many. Hopefully, most of the ice will be sleet and not fzrn. Whomever gets the fzrn it's going to be lights out, literally. Also, the winds are going to be high, esp once the storm rides up the coast.
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Yea with Dewpoints so low and even actual temps…locals here and esp Ashe County NC will tell you funky things can happen during transfers with qpf. @BIG FROSTY knows this well too. Already GFS vs Euro disagree on amounts and with plenty of days if the euro were to cut in half then we are talking a low grade winter storm. Of course, always prepare for the worse but saying absolutes in all caps after many storms we know what could happen.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not often you see 29/3 proceeding a winter storm here
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This is ahead of schedule: But it happens to many times to count, almost always. as we get closer to start time for precip, it seems to always arrive earlier than forecasted by models. Reading the Metwannabe and SD talk of frontogensis early thump etc. This would help get some folks a couple hours of the good stuff, before the waa comes along to wreck the soundings upstairs.
 
28/4 for me at the end of that NAM run. I’ve always felt for to see a strong CAD to lock things under freezing here, I want to have my temperature in the mid 30s and the single digit dewpoints right about the NC/VA state line…this far and away exceeds that. This really does have the potential to be one of the stronger CAD set ups we’ve seen in a long time
 
Downeastnc said:
NAM and ICON at 18Z had that jump to the low more south near the panhandle, just need to see that translate out east from there...could be the beginning of a correction.....I hope.
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One other thing to root for that would make things favorable is for this pup to speed up, get here quicker by 6-12 hours. would make huge difference and stay suppresed off to the east more
 
I know we don't see jogs south usually on models and usually see NW trends but this isn't you're regular storm system. We usually don't get Alberta clippers as the makers of our winter weather so the progression of them are a little different than a traditional southern wave. We can trend this further south by doing what the NAM and some other guidance is hinting at and that's keeping our energy sheared out enough until it comes into the southeast. Then we want it to close off and dig south closer to Mississippi and Alabama before making its eventual turn to the east and NE. That will push it further south and keep the warm nose further south. There's still time to see this take shape.
 
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iGRXY said:
I know we don't see jogs south usually on models and usually see NW trends but this isn't you're regular storm system. We usually don't get Alberta clippers as the makers of our winter weather so the progression of them are a little different than a traditional southern wave. We can trend this further south by doing what the NAM and some other guidance is hinting at and that's keeping our energy sheared out enough until it comes into the southeast. Then we want it to close off and dig south closer to Mississippi and Alabama before making its eventual turn to the east and NE. That will push it further south and keep the warm nose further south. There's still time to see this take shape.
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Honestly, I suspect the NW trend we all talk about is more of a myth than reality. Confirmation bias can be a hell of a thing. Unless there is some modeling bias that causes it to happen and hasn’t been fixed for decades, I don’t see how it would truly be the case. But what do I know.
 
Pilotwx said:
Hard to get Miller B to pan out for the foothills usually, things just have to be right
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? agreed. There is a reason why we don’t have many 19 degree winter storms to reference in Wilkes/Surry. We have the CAD but will moisture hit the ground and verify on the projected amounts?
 
Wouldn't this still be considered a hybrid Miller a/b i always thought a Miller b was a low that tracked up into N Tennessee S Kentucky that transfered off too the coast. Now those setups always dry slots the nw piedmont/foothills with the transfer but this setup is diffrent.
 
SD said:
Good grief dude View attachment 104579
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This shows you just how deep this CAD is. The NAM is 10-15 degrees colder with the DP than the EURO and nearly 20 degrees colder than the GFS at the same time. The globals are just not capable of picking up of just how deep this cold air will probably be. That absolutely plays a role in what type of precip we get and just how far north the low can go.
 
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