Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[iGRXY]

EPS?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes

 

[BufordWX]

Here we go. Wow

 

[BufordWX]

Euro Control as well.

 

[jjwxman]

Based on recent model runs, some areas just SE of the transition zone in NC are going to get freezing rain with surface temps 25-28 degrees. Ouch.

 

[iGRXY]

A 6-7" inch mean over the western carolinas at day 5 is almost unheard of.

 

[Flotown]

Wow ne bama gets smashed on that run.man

 

[Chattownsnow]

My lord… member 26 please

 

[LovingGulfLows]

View attachment 103886
A 6-7" inch mean over the western carolinas at day 5 is almost unheard of.

4-5 inch mean over my house 4-5 days out is ridiculous.

 

[KyloG]

Euro op for Atlanta is just sick…?

 

[ryan1234]

This may belong in the banter thread but I am saying it anyway. Feel free to move it elsewhere. But can I just say THANKS to all the Mods who are on top of removing some of these downright bogus claims in regards to this storm. It can't be easy, but you all are killing it!

 

[BelmontWX79]

The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol

By this time the surface low is just about over VA Beach with w to wnw winds over W. North Carolina giving us some down sloping off the mountains.

 

[olhausen]

EPS will be telling on where things stand right now. I doubt any you will see any crazy reactions from any NWS office today. We're still basically 5 days out since it has slowed down.

Yep Nashville was calling for 1-2 a couple days before last week’s storm. They gradually went up to 5-6 the morning of and 8 inches was common when it actually fell. They aren’t going to say omg 10-15 inches of snow will fall this weekend this far out.

 

[bigstick10]

Yep Nashville was calling for 1-2 a couple days before last week’s storm. They gradually went up to 5-6 the morning of and 8 inches was common when it actually fell. They aren’t going to say omg 10-15 inches of snow will fall this weekend this far out.

This will not be a Nashville event, as it looks right now. You have had enough.

 

[BufordWX]

EPS probabilities.
1 inch:

3 inch:

6 inch:

12 inch:

 

[J.C.]

Euro op for Atlanta is just sick…?View attachment 103890

Thank you for posting KRYY, as this is more inclusive or the northern burbs of Atlanta that have had anywhere from 10-17" of snow since the big one in 2017.

 

[Heelyes]

This will not be a Nashville event, as it looks right now. You have had enough.

History says Nashville is still in the game and Atlanta could still get the shaft

 

[griteater]

I'd like to see these snow maps verify as well, but reality is that warm air is going to be pouring in aloft from the SE. A lot of these snow map algorithms are tinted toward promotion....like "hey, let's count the last 6 hours of precip as snow even though it changed from snow to sleet at hour 1". If the heavy damming holds like this, this will be a major winter storm no doubt, but you'll need to dig into the soundings to investigate the time of precip type changeover etc. The snow maps are going to be tilted on the high side east of the mountains in cases like this of damming and warm air moving in rapidly aloft

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 103889View attachment 103887
My lord… member 26 please

Interestingly, almost all the "misses" for the areas showing a big hit on the OP are the flatter/sheared-out solutions. Not so much the amped/stronger depictions.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Storm5]

EPS is vastly improved for many


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk