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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

griteater said:
850mb low and temperatures on Euro

4z2sMwz.gif
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The system is bringing up warm air from the Atlantic. During the transition phase


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EPS will be telling on where things stand right now. I doubt any you will see any crazy reactions from any NWS office today. We're still basically 5 days out since it has slowed down.
 
There is some indication that the storm's forward speed may slow substantially while it pivots across the Southeast this weekend. This deceleration might allow the storm to gain strength and pull in more moisture, which could result in a moderate or heavy wintry precipitation event.

"If all of the pieces come together perfectly on Sunday, snowfall amounts could exceed a foot from northern Georgia through portions of the Carolinas and southern Virginia as the storm strengthens," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
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SimeonNC said:
The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol
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Absolutely can with that low track. If it's close to you, it will warm up. Sometimes CAD holds on longer if the HP is depicted as modeled. Still lots to sort out with that kind of detail.
 
Faco Thomas said:
I feel like a trend towards a weaker low is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).
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It would be great if we could get a solution like the 12z UKMET today or 0z CMC from last night. If we could get it into the Gulf or Panhandle area and keep it from cutting inland, that'd be awesome. Too much amping and it's introducing warm air, that is hurting us. Hopefully we get a better solution on future runs, esp. once it enters the US and we get better data.
 
SimeonNC said:
The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol
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No I don’t, but I also know that the Euro has a tendency of pushing out CAD way too quickly. One thing that does look to be the case here is that of a very strong and cold CAD. All of the models are putting temperatures throughout the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate in the low to mid 20s when precip starts. Been awhile since we had a storm that cold
 
Chazwin said:
No I don’t, but I also know that the Euro has a tendency of pushing out CAD way too quickly. One thing that does look to be the case here is that of a very strong and cold CAD. All of the models are putting temperatures throughout the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate in the low to mid 20s when precip starts. Been awhile since we had a storm that cold
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Exactly. Took the words right out of my mouth. We know if we get the precip falling when temps are that cold, it's going to stay COLD thorough the duration of the event. Been through wayyyy too many CAD setups to fall for things warming up like some models tend to depict.
 
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