Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[weather nerd]

To go with my reasoning above; CAD is slow to erode and always overdone, especially by the GFS operational run. The NAM will allow us to see thermal profiles better here in next few days. I will say though, that the slower this thing is, the more chances of a Northern track. The support we have/had to the North.. to suppress and keep this thing South's window is closing.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

The ZR extends all of the way to the AL border on the 12Z Euro. So, it suggests it isn’t borderline and that ATL has a good opportunity for its biggest icestorm since Feb of 2014 and the biggest on the northside since Dec of 2005!! This wedge apparently means business.

Side note: The last check on the MJO had it inside the circle then, which is favorable for an Atlanta icestorm per history.

But how far south do you think ZR would extend ? Griffin?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

For more to get into the snow, wouldn't we want this sucker to dig a bit more?
View attachment 104498

Yes, ideally, you want the center of the ULL to be just to the south of you for some of the heaviest snows.

 

[Downeastnc]

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

Yeah I have had it go from onset ice and snow to 50ish and heavy rain and then back to snow on the backside all in 12 hrs lol.....

Pretty sure I am on the outside looking in this time around, gonna take some pretty big shifts at this point to get this back to a classic snowstorm for MBY....the SE trend down the stretch is rare, but I gotta think/hope this is as far NW as it goes and we see it take baby steps back east....dont wanna be bullseye 4 days out blah blah blah.....

 

[iGRXY]

For the upstate and NC/SC board counties, this is where we are at snow wise on the Kuchera before switching over to sleet. a solid thumping of snow. Uses about 0.7" worth of liquid on the initial snow and temps are in the mid 20's so ratios would probably be pretty stout.

 

[SD]

This setup is so cold View attachment 104500View attachment 104501View attachment 104502View attachment 104503

It'll be interesting to see just how much of a front end thump we get here and how much if any over performance there is on initial cooling. Won't change the long term game but someone in this area could get a quick 2-4 of snow/sleet before changeover

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The ZR extends all of the way to the AL border on the 12Z Euro. So, it suggests it isn’t borderline and that ATL has a good opportunity for its biggest icestorm since Feb of 2014 and the biggest on the northside since Dec of 2005!! This wedge apparently means business.

Side note: The last check on the MJO had it inside the circle then, which is favorable for an Atlanta icestorm per history.

how about Columbia SC? How do you think we will do with MJO?

 

[SENC]

Go get your gas (for a Generator), OR Kerosine (for heat) NOW Folks!

 

[weather nerd]

Reminder: In the past the GFS has been too progressive with the Northern stream/branch. Another thing to watch out for here.

 

[ForsythSnow]

So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.

 

[ryanardo]

Maybe we can avoid these totals with more sleet?

Yeah if the system pans out to even half of that, it's still bad

 

[NWMSGuy]

Would anyone believe we would see a deform band set up with this look? Would rates be higher than currently advertised?

 

[iGRXY]

The ZR down around I20 is going to be bad. Aiken to Columbia into the pee dee are going to get wrecked. Looking at the soundings it's a quick burst of snow to sleet, then the soundings are definitely ZR soundings.

Below is a sounding for Columbia:

 

[RSG]

For more to get into the snow, wouldn't we want this sucker to dig a bit more?
View attachment 104498

You'd want it to dig yes but that's still irrelevant if it's trying to run the primary west of the Apps. You need this to take on a Miller A look, not a Miller B

 

[weather nerd]

The ZR down around I20 is going to be bad. Aiken to Columbia into the pee dee are going to get wrecked. Looking at the soundings it's a quick burst of snow to sleet, then the soundings are definitely ZR soundings.

Below is a sounding for Columbia:

View attachment 104507

Thanks for that. Exactly my thinking at this point.

 

[Arcc]

Would anyone believe we would see a deform band set up with this look? Would rates be higher than currently advertised?
View attachment 104506

You would normally, but the original low(surface through 700mb) is occluding as the transfer begins to take place.

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

For NC Dec 2002 comparisons—that one had miller b low develop offshore as it lifted NE. This one’s stubbornly determined to take a shortcut inland. The CAD is stout though (and probably similar to that setup).

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks very wonky

IP super cells? ?

 

[RBR71]

IP super cells? ?

IP islands

 

[SnowsWonderful]

Is it possible (since yesterday evening trends) that this becomes strictly an Apps runner & nobody wins in the southeast except Cumberland plateau and everywhere NE of there?

 

[ryan1234]

Is it possible (since yesterday evening trends) that this becomes strictly an Apps runner & nobody wins in the southeast except Cumberland plateau and everywhere NE of there?

No.

 

[RBR71]

It'll be interesting to see just how much of a front end thump we get here and how much if any over performance there is on initial cooling. Won't change the long term game but someone in this area could get a quick 2-4 of snow/sleet before changeover

Selfish weenism but I fully expect to pick up 2" from that, they have been known to go pound town just before the transition.

And you're much better at recalling past systems than I, do you remember a storm we tracked a number of years ago (prob over on TW), strong CAD, models wanted to drive it right up the wedge and last day or 2 they actually shifted more east around the "dome" of cold air? I know it doesn't always happen but seems I remember this very thing being tracked and us discussing it but I don't recall when or the details. I'm sure it was a different setup and models are better now, maybe.

 

[iGRXY]

EPS is following in the OPs trend of strengthening the wave coming down out of Canada but also Strengthening our 50/50.

 

[RSG]

Is it possible (since yesterday evening trends) that this becomes strictly an Apps runner & nobody wins in the southeast except Cumberland plateau and everywhere NE of there?

No. The CAD is what's driving this regardless of storm track.

 

[malak05]

I'm sitting in Paulding County GA right now and after watching models today my expectations for my area is to have around .10-.20 inches of freezing rain and 1-2 inches of snow on top

 

[NEGaweather]

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[EmersonGA]

So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.

I've got my electrician father coming over on Saturday to finally wire up my generator disconnect just in case. I'm in the 32.1 degree CAD zone typically but this has a 2000/2005 vibe to me.

 

[ATLwxfan]

So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.

North Fulton and Forsyth counties are in for a smorgasbord. Going to be an absolute mess in Alpharetta.


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[Avalanche]

Selfish weenism but I fully expect to pick up 2" from that, they have been known to go pound town just before the transition.

And you're much better at recalling past systems than I, do you remember a storm we tracked a number of years ago (prob over on TW), strong CAD, models wanted to drive it right up the wedge and last day or 2 they actually shifted more east around the "dome" of cold air? I know it doesn't always happen but seems I remember this very thing being tracked and us discussing it but I don't recall when or the details. I'm sure it was a different setup and models are better now, maybe.

Was this back on Talkweather? I remember that and Shane was calling it like that well in advance.

 

[JLL1973]

Man here in far n bama we so close!!maybe we can trend back a little south

i think our area is losing this one. Looks like its headed i40 northward

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

North Fulton and Forsyth counties are in for a smorgasbord. Going to be an absolute mess in Alpharetta.


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Gwinnett also. I don't think the airport and areas south and west will have many issues. This is a classic east and northeast of Atl storm.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[JLL1973]

Would anyone believe we would see a deform band set up with this look? Would rates be higher than currently advertised?
View attachment 104506

yep and i think your in a good spot for that unless the north trend continues

 

[iGRXY]

850's actually recover faster on this run as well.

 

[GaWx]

Gwinnett also. I don't think the airport and areas south and west will have many issues. This is a classic east and northeast of Atl storm.

Based on what?

 

[RSG]

Strong wording 4 days out from somebody normally conservative

 

[Flotown]

i think our area is losing this one. Looks like its headed i40 northward

Yep just like the last one...lol but we still kind time...maybe

 

[BufordWX]

EPS looks a little better so far.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Based on what?

All the models I've seen. Certainly areas like Carrollton, Cedartown, Griffin are right on the edge.

 

[Clem282340]

EPS looks a little better so far.View attachment 104516

Does this count freezing rain and sleet