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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

To go with my reasoning above; CAD is slow to erode and always overdone, especially by the GFS operational run. The NAM will allow us to see thermal profiles better here in next few days. I will say though, that the slower this thing is, the more chances of a Northern track. The support we have/had to the North.. to suppress and keep this thing South's window is closing.
 
GaWx said:
The ZR extends all of the way to the AL border on the 12Z Euro. So, it suggests it isn’t borderline and that ATL has a good opportunity for its biggest icestorm since Feb of 2014 and the biggest on the northside since Dec of 2005!! This wedge apparently means business.

Side note: The last check on the MJO had it inside the circle then, which is favorable for an Atlanta icestorm per history.
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But how far south do you think ZR would extend ? Griffin?
 
metwannabe said:
Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.
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Yeah I have had it go from onset ice and snow to 50ish and heavy rain and then back to snow on the backside all in 12 hrs lol.....

Pretty sure I am on the outside looking in this time around, gonna take some pretty big shifts at this point to get this back to a classic snowstorm for MBY....the SE trend down the stretch is rare, but I gotta think/hope this is as far NW as it goes and we see it take baby steps back east....dont wanna be bullseye 4 days out blah blah blah.....
 
GaWx said:
The ZR extends all of the way to the AL border on the 12Z Euro. So, it suggests it isn’t borderline and that ATL has a good opportunity for its biggest icestorm since Feb of 2014 and the biggest on the northside since Dec of 2005!! This wedge apparently means business.

Side note: The last check on the MJO had it inside the circle then, which is favorable for an Atlanta icestorm per history.
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how about Columbia SC? How do you think we will do with MJO?
 
So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.
 
The ZR down around I20 is going to be bad. Aiken to Columbia into the pee dee are going to get wrecked. Looking at the soundings it's a quick burst of snow to sleet, then the soundings are definitely ZR soundings.

Below is a sounding for Columbia:

1642013312682.png
 
iGRXY said:
The ZR down around I20 is going to be bad. Aiken to Columbia into the pee dee are going to get wrecked. Looking at the soundings it's a quick burst of snow to sleet, then the soundings are definitely ZR soundings.

Below is a sounding for Columbia:

View attachment 104507
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Thanks for that. Exactly my thinking at this point.
 
metwannabe said:
Looks very wonky

1642496400-VVPWk5tXgbw.png
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IP super cells? ?
 
SD said:
It'll be interesting to see just how much of a front end thump we get here and how much if any over performance there is on initial cooling. Won't change the long term game but someone in this area could get a quick 2-4 of snow/sleet before changeover
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Selfish weenism but I fully expect to pick up 2" from that, they have been known to go pound town just before the transition.

And you're much better at recalling past systems than I, do you remember a storm we tracked a number of years ago (prob over on TW), strong CAD, models wanted to drive it right up the wedge and last day or 2 they actually shifted more east around the "dome" of cold air? I know it doesn't always happen but seems I remember this very thing being tracked and us discussing it but I don't recall when or the details. I'm sure it was a different setup and models are better now, maybe.
 
ForsythSnow said:
So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.
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I've got my electrician father coming over on Saturday to finally wire up my generator disconnect just in case. I'm in the 32.1 degree CAD zone typically but this has a 2000/2005 vibe to me.
 
ForsythSnow said:
So taking the Euro verbatim, it'd be rain, then that freezes and turns to a sheet of ice as 7 or so inches of snow piles up on that. Then we switch to sleet and get an inch on that which switches to freezing rain and drops .25 to .5 inches on that, following a coating of up to 2 inches of snow on the back side. A sandwich that spells disaster for the power grid.
Click to expand...

North Fulton and Forsyth counties are in for a smorgasbord. Going to be an absolute mess in Alpharetta.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Selfish weenism but I fully expect to pick up 2" from that, they have been known to go pound town just before the transition.

And you're much better at recalling past systems than I, do you remember a storm we tracked a number of years ago (prob over on TW), strong CAD, models wanted to drive it right up the wedge and last day or 2 they actually shifted more east around the "dome" of cold air? I know it doesn't always happen but seems I remember this very thing being tracked and us discussing it but I don't recall when or the details. I'm sure it was a different setup and models are better now, maybe.
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Was this back on Talkweather? I remember that and Shane was calling it like that well in advance.
 
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