Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[BirdManDoomW]

FV3 hi-res really nails Greensboro NC west with a pre snow would be nice to get 1-2” before the precip even reaches Atlanta Georgia

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Does anyone have the 18z EPS? Did it pretty much match the OP?


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[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Would be nice to see this overperform.

Does anyone remember the band of snow that came through on 2/11/2014 prior to the main storm (which came on 2/12) and absolutely clobbered some areas of S NC? New Bern got 10” and I don’t think it was even close to being forecasted. I don’t remember the synoptic setup for that one and if this bears any similarities. I assume I’m just being a modernweenie .

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James, I don't remember the synoptic setup, but I think you're right this "pre-event" was a complete surprise down there. Think everyone was focused on the real event just after that, which I think performed as expected.

 

[SimeonNC]

I feel like the NC side of the CLT metro will be saved by sleet, not to mention as I said earlier the heavy precip will make it hard for ZR to accrue, especially onto trees and other objects.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I feel like the NC side of the CLT metro will be saved by sleet, not to mention as I said earlier the heavy precip will make it hard for ZR to accrue, especially onto trees and other objects.

Only problem is heavy ZR can accrue much more easier when it’s in the 20s, but there is a shot sleet saves us for sure

 

[Clem282340]

Does the euro have a better handle on this storm better than the other model seems to me it keeps on showing the same thing over and over the last few runs

 

[Broken024]

Only problem is heavy ZR can accrue much more easier when it’s in the 20s, but there is a shot sleet saves us for sure

Yea heavy zr at 31.5 might not accrue.. but at 26 on top of a little snow/sleet it will.

 

[BelmontWX79]

The 2002 ice storm broke the record for power outages in North Carolina that was previously held by Hugo.

 

[Jessy89]

Does the euro have a better handle on this storm better than the other model seems to me it keeps on showing the same thing over and over the last few runs

I would lean more towards the euro yes. Based on how it’s performed in years past

 

[SC_Wildcat]

Coming back east and south with the snow too. Shows a bad icestorm for much of SC, specifically for the Columbia area over towards Florence.

I'd rather have all rain and the ice potential is what's scaring me with this storm. Especially since I'm in Dillon and that is more of what we seem to be on track of getting.

 

[iGRXY]

HRRR is weaker and faster than the 18z NAM. Okay will see how the 0Z NAM looks here shortly

 

[SimeonNC]

Wind chills are gonna be insane during this event lol.

 

[Justin Buchinsky]

Have to wonder how many stand a chance at brief blizzard conditions as the LLJ moves north.

Sadly the same LLJ is responsible for rapid warming of our mid-levels courtesy on stonk WAA

 

[TheBatman]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Last frame of the HRRR:

 

[BufordWX]

HRRR was trying for something on Saturday up in North Carolina.

 

[rburrel2]

Hrrr has a wave across the Great Lakes that’s going to keep our storm suppressed, imo. Weird feature that I haven’t seen on other modeling.

 

[SimeonNC]

Kinda bullish on the snow/sleet amounts lol

 

[MichaelJ]

The KGSO profile of the storm has changed drastically, here is the latest

Here is the one earlier

 

[bigstick10]

Most of you guys were not even here, or your parents, in January 1973. Atlanta got obliterated by an ice storm, we had no power for 11 days, it was fun at first for this 17 year old, but got old after about the 4th day. Ironically this started sat night into Sunday. And how about the blizzard a month later in central GA which dumped 15-24 inches. This was a La Nina year as well.