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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Tarheel1 said:
Ingested new data, has made the GSP forecast, absolutely ridiculous!! @Jimmy Hypocracy ???View attachment 104583
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it’s the big one! I honestly hate to leave if it’s going to be an epic snow here but I’ll take my chances on the mountain. I can enjoy the biblical snow I mean ice when I get back home monday.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Wouldn't this still be considered a hybrid Miller a/b i always thought a Miller b was a low that tracked up into N Tennessee S Kentucky that transfered off too the coast. Now those setups always dry slots the nw piedmont/foothills with the transfer but this setup is diffrent.
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This setup still varies by up to 1” in qpf for some areas up this way between the models. 0.75” total qpf vs 2” qpf is major differences. I would side with lower amount given the dry air.
 
DopplerWx said:
Tough because I know we all had pure snow in the mid 20s on our mind but this is bound to be a fun one esp if we can get a nice thump of snow on the front end. Hard not to get excited with Ens output like this.
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At this point I'm bargaining. If I can get 4 inches thump prior to change over......deal. I'll take the sleet/freezing rain. I think the nam is going to work it out for me. I may have a shot just north of the metro.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
This setup still varies by up to 1” in qpf for some areas up this way between the models. 0.75” total qpf vs 2” qpf is major differences. I would side with lower amount given the dry air.
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Yeah I could see my area down along 64 get a lil more precip I doubt I get more than 1.25 max and thats probably overkill.
 
J.C. said:
Having Augusta in the same zone as the north and eastern suburbs of Atlanta makes me discredit his map completely, sorry.
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Why do you say this? In 2014 Augusta got much more than NE Atlanta burbs (although that was because NE burbs had much more IP and snow) knocking down Eisenhower tree at Augusta National. It can happen and has at times. Augusta is a pretty wedge friendly city.
 
Icon is below freezing from the metro north and east Sunday morning.
1642022418652.png

This is the precip map at the same time with the Icon not depicting ZR at the surface.

1642022472160.png
 
I feel like a lot of people are gonna be turned off to sleet and freezing rain after this event. Gonna be some major disruptions to a lot of folks in GA, NC, SC. This isn’t a marginal set up. This is looking very crippling for a very large area.
 
SnowNiner said:
At this point I'm bargaining. If I can get 4 inches thump prior to change over......deal. I'll take the sleet/freezing rain. I think the nam is going to work it out for me. I may have a shot just north of the metro.
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I think CLT metro as whole is gonna do ok with the initial thump… if I had to say right now I think down my is good for 2-3” before the sleet sets in, and I could see up your way getting a solid 4-5” before mixing
 
GaWx said:
Why do you say this? In 2014 Augusta got much more than NE Atlanta burbs knocking down Eisenhower tree at Augusta National. It can happen and has at times.
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He is a professional, and his opinion matters. 2014 is literally the only time I've ever seen this happen, but generally CAD is much sharper, narrower, hugging closer to the east side of the mountains, areas below freezing that is.
 
GaWx said:
Why do you say this? In 2014 Augusta got much more than NE Atlanta burbs knocking down Eisenhower tree at Augusta National. It can happen and has at times. Augusta is a pretty wedge friendly city.
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This is correct. Very little in the way of ZR for that storm for in-town & NE suburbs. That was mostly a sleet producer until the cold core low moved over & dropped another few inches of snow.
 
Solutions should settle in the next 24hrs, in many ways it’s a hybrid not classic A/B, expect the transition zones to sharpen somewhat and a tick NW inside 48, status quo. Still a mess and easy NESIS 3, 4 depends on track along or just off the Mid-Atlantic/NE. Many areas will see most of there snow from the front end wet tongue.
 
GaWx said:
Why do you say this? In 2014 Augusta got much more than NE Atlanta burbs knocking down Eisenhower tree at Augusta National. It can happen and has at times. Augusta is a pretty wedge friendly city.
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Yeah, I have my doubts that this actually brings ice here (although considering that the ICON is apparently warm biased, then maybe I am going to see ice), but...

1. CAD does work here. It doesn't always mean that there is going to be wintry weather, but I can remember plenty of times where my high for the day was predicted somewhere in the 60s, or 50s, and it never got there due to CAD (which is why I called out the 12z GFS).

2. There has been major ice here before.
 
Chattownsnow said:
I feel like a lot of people are gonna be turned off to sleet and freezing rain after this event. Gonna be some major disruptions to a lot of folks in GA, NC, SC. This isn’t a marginal set up. This is looking very crippling for a very large area.
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Some, yes. But some others here have posted they know the potential consequences and still want a major icestorm just like hurricane and severe wx seekers want those.
 
I know it has been said over and over but it will be very interesting to see what shifts we see especially into tomorrow morning as the wave finally gets sampled. Sure, there usually isn’t a massive change but we all remember that Christmas 2010 storm where it made a huge difference.
 
J.C. said:
Icon is below freezing from the metro north and east Sunday morning.

This is the precip map at the same time with the Icon not depicting ZR at the surface.

View attachment 104592
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You can see here after the initial snow (will take awhile to reach the ground) there is a lull in intensity shown over SC. That will likely lose the snow growth for most outside of the foothills. It’s gonna be painfully slow to moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere while watching Georgia mtns get it. Further on, if 1-3” falls it will lock in the cad and the majority of the event for everyone will be Ice. It’s not so much a thump IMO it’s just the storm evolving and locking in the mixed bag for a big area.
 
The high of 48 in Greenville on Saturday , should be slightly concerning! I know it’s a super wedge and all that, but I have been burned sooooo many times by cold not arriving in time, and starting out as rain, but will quickly turn to snow type forecasts! Just food for thought, no matter how perfect the storm appears
 
Chattownsnow said:
I feel like a lot of people are gonna be turned off to sleet and freezing rain after this event. Gonna be some major disruptions to a lot of folks in GA, NC, SC. This isn’t a marginal set up. This is looking very crippling for a very large area.
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Thoughts for us in Chattanooga
 
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