Yeah man I highly doubt we stay all snow here in the foothills that warm nose means business if its amped like the GFS. Little Switzerland looks great on the cips.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah man I highly doubt we stay all snow here in the foothills that warm nose means business if its amped like the GFS. Little Switzerland looks great on the cips.
Cary_Snow95
Member
It’s interesting. Last 5 runs of gfs trended stronger with Baja low. Even this run at 12 hours
bigstick10
Member
the main focus is
for the weekend system of what has the potential to be a
significant winter event late Saturday through Sunday. What is
worrisome for now is how the latest Euro has trended to a
stronger system and how both the GFS and Euro have a possible
strong classical CAD wedge setting up ahead of a robust upper
cutoff trough and translated sfc low that could under go Miller
Type A cyclogenesis. There are some differences in the southern
extend of the piece of energy and where the sfc low gets better
organized (where along southern baroclinic zone of the wedge or a
bit farther north). Regardless, the strength of the parent high
and wedge could play a large role in what mixed p-type could
result and if freezing rain will be an impact ahead of what may
transition into significant snow from the upper wave dynamics. All
this being said and the aforementioned wave is currently way off
near Hawaii so obviously much can change and the run-to-run
consistency will be a big factor in gaining more confidence.
Hesitate to talk about snow/ice totals at this point because so
much could change given spread of amounts or location with the
various models, though just want to say that significant amounts
of either or both are possible and should get better ideas in the
next few days. Stay tuned.
TWC -Greenville forecast 
Bham discussion
TERM...
/Updated at 0344 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022/
/Potential for weekend wintry weather, fair weather either side/
The primary weather system of interest is a trough located over the
Pacific Ocean as of Tuesday afternoon. The trough is progged to dive
southward across the Rockies later this week as a secondary, smaller
feature merges. The 12z ECMWF trended toward the GFS regarding the
upper- and lower-level trough / dynamic upper low configuration
but, considering the high model variability leading up and
continued spread, it remains too early to get a lock on this
system; however, trends are seemingly pointing toward the trough
digging enough, such that a period of wintry weather could occur
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning over central Alabama as a
swath of cold air feeds into the trough/upper low.
There is ample room for improvement amongst model guidance to better
resolve the forward progression/timing of precipitation as well as
the extent/timing of freezing air, all dependent on the behavior
of the surface low which has a fair amount of spread in the
ensembles.
At this time, the latest forecast calls for southerly flow to result
in initial precipitation being in the form of rain starting
sometime Saturday afternoon with cold advection allowing for a
window of wintry precipitation (rain to rain/snow or snow)
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning for parts of central
Alabama. Keep in mind that shifts in upcoming guidance, as we've
seen so far, will require shifts in the forecast, so don't latch
onto any particular outcome just yet. There's enough potential
present for me to go ahead and include a mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook given the currently progged setup and ensemble
potential for some accumulations reflected generally near and
north of I-20.
Otherwise, fair weather with seasonable temperatures is expected
before and after the weekend system.
89^GSatterwhite
TERM...
/Updated at 0344 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022/
/Potential for weekend wintry weather, fair weather either side/
The primary weather system of interest is a trough located over the
Pacific Ocean as of Tuesday afternoon. The trough is progged to dive
southward across the Rockies later this week as a secondary, smaller
feature merges. The 12z ECMWF trended toward the GFS regarding the
upper- and lower-level trough / dynamic upper low configuration
but, considering the high model variability leading up and
continued spread, it remains too early to get a lock on this
system; however, trends are seemingly pointing toward the trough
digging enough, such that a period of wintry weather could occur
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning over central Alabama as a
swath of cold air feeds into the trough/upper low.
There is ample room for improvement amongst model guidance to better
resolve the forward progression/timing of precipitation as well as
the extent/timing of freezing air, all dependent on the behavior
of the surface low which has a fair amount of spread in the
ensembles.
At this time, the latest forecast calls for southerly flow to result
in initial precipitation being in the form of rain starting
sometime Saturday afternoon with cold advection allowing for a
window of wintry precipitation (rain to rain/snow or snow)
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning for parts of central
Alabama. Keep in mind that shifts in upcoming guidance, as we've
seen so far, will require shifts in the forecast, so don't latch
onto any particular outcome just yet. There's enough potential
present for me to go ahead and include a mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook given the currently progged setup and ensemble
potential for some accumulations reflected generally near and
north of I-20.
Otherwise, fair weather with seasonable temperatures is expected
before and after the weekend system.
89^GSatterwhite
NWMSGuy
Member
Memphis says, we are either going big or going home:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
334 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...
A much more quiet pattern sets up over the region for the next
several days. A gradual warming trend will continue for most of
the week. High pressure will start to shift east tonight into
Wednesday. An upper trough will skirt the Mid-South on Thursday. Guidance
maintains a dry forecast through the week. Temperatures this week
will be in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. Then we turn our
attention to the weekend as guidance shows a winter storm
impacting the southeast United States. There are a few different
looks to this system this weekend. One of which has it digging so
far south that we could miss most of the precipitation, and the
other has us under a significant snow band across the Mid South.
For now, we have maintained and expanded the rain/snow area for
this package. With temperatures expected to drop through the
day on Saturday, whatever precipitation is left will likely be in
the form of snow or changing to snow Saturday evening. Another upper trough
will glance by the Mid-South on Monday at this time do not expect
any precipitation with this trough. Temperatures on Sunday will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. On Monday, expect highs to be in
the 40s.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
334 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...
A much more quiet pattern sets up over the region for the next
several days. A gradual warming trend will continue for most of
the week. High pressure will start to shift east tonight into
Wednesday. An upper trough will skirt the Mid-South on Thursday. Guidance
maintains a dry forecast through the week. Temperatures this week
will be in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. Then we turn our
attention to the weekend as guidance shows a winter storm
impacting the southeast United States. There are a few different
looks to this system this weekend. One of which has it digging so
far south that we could miss most of the precipitation, and the
other has us under a significant snow band across the Mid South.
For now, we have maintained and expanded the rain/snow area for
this package. With temperatures expected to drop through the
day on Saturday, whatever precipitation is left will likely be in
the form of snow or changing to snow Saturday evening. Another upper trough
will glance by the Mid-South on Monday at this time do not expect
any precipitation with this trough. Temperatures on Sunday will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. On Monday, expect highs to be in
the 40s.
Fountainguy97
Member
18z gfs hr 51 again coming on shore south and west of previous run. That's a 5 run trend btw.
griteater
Member
GFS out to 48 and I can't see a reason why this wouldn't be another amped run in the end. There's slightly more separation between the E Coast trough and our storm wave over the Pac NW, and it entered the W Coast a touch south of last run again.
NEGaweather
Member
Commerce, Ga - TWC Forecast
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Jessy89
Member
That first wave at 51 actually brings a little mountain snow. May help with cold air
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Apex! Rain cold should get more than this?? My sister lives here
iGRXY
Member
GFS off first glance is likely going to be amped again.
brendan123
Member
Wakefield holds off on getting too specific beyond saying a winter storm is possible, especially for western areas
“Late Saturday night into Sunday, the trend in the guidance is
suggesting a significant winter storm may develop for the area
targeting locations from the I95 corridor west. The 12z GFS
ensemble has significantly increased the probabilities of 3 and
6 inches of snow over Central VA and the Piedmont.
Probabilities for 3 inches of snow even extends into the
Tidewater and MD Eastern Shore. The Euro ensembles have also
trended snowier in the same time period, but the Euro is placing
the heavy snow swath a little farther to the NW across the
piedmont and just west of Richmond to the mountains. Either way
there is developing consensus that a significant winter storm
will impact Virgina and the MD Eastern Shore Sat night into Sun.
How much snow falls where and where the rain snow line sets up
will depend on the track of the storm and how quickly the low
pressure system deepens as is moves along the coast and just
offshore. Model trends and guidance will change over time and
everyone is encouraged to keep up with the latest official
forecasts and outlooks for the weekend.”
“Late Saturday night into Sunday, the trend in the guidance is
suggesting a significant winter storm may develop for the area
targeting locations from the I95 corridor west. The 12z GFS
ensemble has significantly increased the probabilities of 3 and
6 inches of snow over Central VA and the Piedmont.
Probabilities for 3 inches of snow even extends into the
Tidewater and MD Eastern Shore. The Euro ensembles have also
trended snowier in the same time period, but the Euro is placing
the heavy snow swath a little farther to the NW across the
piedmont and just west of Richmond to the mountains. Either way
there is developing consensus that a significant winter storm
will impact Virgina and the MD Eastern Shore Sat night into Sun.
How much snow falls where and where the rain snow line sets up
will depend on the track of the storm and how quickly the low
pressure system deepens as is moves along the coast and just
offshore. Model trends and guidance will change over time and
everyone is encouraged to keep up with the latest official
forecasts and outlooks for the weekend.”
iGRXY
Member
Yeah the trough is even deeper again.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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The TPV did pull back north a bit as you can see with the height rises to the south of the center.
iGRXY
Member
The ULL is a touch weaker at 90 but just splitting hairs really.
alfoman
Member
Our vort is a hair slower through 84 hours and slightly more sheared
iGRXY
Member
850's look to be the same through 96.
EDIT: High is 1mb stronger and there's more CAD at 102.
EDIT: High is 1mb stronger and there's more CAD at 102.
griteater
Member
The run has been tough to 'handicap'. It's a touch more positive tilt, but a bit west, so probably similar in the end as it rounds the base of the trough
At 99 it’s digging a bit more SW