I just saw accumulation last week at 35 when it was 80 the day before
Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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I don't think you are going to see much in the way of major shifts in the models going forward. Granted, 50mi here or there can make a HUGE difference in terms of precip type for many. It's going to come down to how strong the CAD is and when the transfer of energy occurs.
Easy. It’s botching the extent of the CAD. Unlike just about every other model.
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Very nice Southeastern shift of the ULL. That's pretty significant...another two shifts like that and parts of N AL and N GA sees a solid backend accumulating snow.
Yes but a colder CAD also limits how far north the LP can go north and will help really limit the warm nose coming up as far. It doesn’t play directly into the upper atmosphere temps but more do indirectly
GEFs made the same trend it’s OP did 
Also here was the GFS zoomed in
Also here was the GFS zoomed in
Lots of GEFS members have the low tracking close to Hatteras. Much better results in the I-85 corridor and NW as a result.
That would be great news for those that don’t want much ZR and bad news for those who want it. But I think it is too warm and that a significant ZR is more likely.
Looking at 7h and 850 levels, it definitely took a nice tick S and SE. Quicker 850 transfer as well. How quickly the transfer occurs will be key For many.
Thinking the southern most solution even at this hour would be more beneficial for people to the North.
I'm one of those Wild Weather Mongers who adores ice. I despise sleet simply because what could have been a good snow is silly little ice pellets. If a tree falls on the house, a new roof comes in handy too. Of course, nothing beats a good coating of ice hidden under as many inches of snow as can fit! Oh, and I like canes too. Tornados, nope.I got you but don’t shoot the messenger
Also, many wx fanatics want it whether they admit it or not. They always talk about the dreaded rain and 33 as being the worst thing, not the dreaded rain and 32 or 31.
Another couple 50m shifts southeast and the Triangle would be in good spot.
