Lets not forget about latent heating; maybe some areas can be saved from that.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lets not forget about latent heating; maybe some areas can be saved from that.
Maturing cyclone coming out of the southern plains into central LA with a right hook across central AL/GA/SC? Surface should follow.
Buckle Up
Buckle Up
Explanation as to why models have trended better:
Oconeexman
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Really can't nail that down yet. Need to get mesoscale model range..should have a lot better idea tomorrow night or Friday by 12z. It's almost inevitable that below 85 will either be an all mix or a change over after a front end couple hours of snow. Once u get above 85 then there's a better chance of snow hanging on longer. But there's a lot to work out b4 we will know and even then it won't be 100% guaranteed. The only real forecast I'd feel confident about would be sw mountains of NC getting buried.
iGRXY
Member
packfan98
Moderator
So that would prevent the shortwave from digging so much when it drops in from the west and keep it more progressive. Makes sense from what we’ve seen with the model trends.
packfan98
Moderator
Can you post a 12z to 18z eps comparison snow mean please?
iGRXY
Member
Continued south trends
Ron Burgundy
Member
That entire pair of panels looks like the one crazy ens member we always say we want.
iGRXY
Member
? you can only hold an old battered dog down for so long 
sigwx
Member
Will shall see, the low is on shore now, the models will pick it up and will see which direction the models will go?
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iGRXY
Member
Couple things that really have me interested going forward. 1. Do we continue to see snow breakout deeper and further south due to the deeper CAD that continues to show up? This would allow for a longer period of snow and that’s something you’re seeing right now with several inches falling before the switch over. The next is we’re starting to see a deform band show up on the back side so we could really start piling onto already high totals. You can see below on the control that it’s getting a comma head look with crashing 850’s.
Snowmeter debuts at a 4
The MJO is currently in phase 8. The GEFS has not updated in a week. But these other three models say that it will be inside the circle at the time of the storm. If that holds and ATL gets a major sleet/ZR storm, that would keep the streak going at 9 major ATL ZR or sleets in a row with it inside or at the circle:
Isn’t slower bad ?
Folks reading, please take precautions for life and safety, that includes electricity. Especially north of the current 850 line forecast, N GA, extreme Upstate and western NC plan for multi day outages. TN too, in many ways this will be more significant than the last one for TN. N AL very much in play.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I initially read it that way as well. But a taller ridge should limit the waves initial digging when it comes on shore. In fact the 00z NAM initialized with a much stronger western ridge
I just looked it up and I also see that we now have a +PNA, and both the AO and NAO go into negative values on the 15th. Phase 8 into COD, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO… it makes sense that a widespread major winter storm is forecasted for the southeast
Prepare and hunker down. Hospitals are full. Don’t slip and fall on ice. Stay home. Clean storm drains and weak trees in advance. Drive on roads when they are treated to help bond it to the roads.
iGRXY
Member
Nam is more sheared at 33
Also a larger jump east.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Roof caving fatties, power line collapsing ZR, roller skating rink cementing IP, tree whipping wind, it’s all coming folks
Look at the difference in the energy over the past 24hrs on the nam. Just shows the volatility with it not being sampled well.iGRXY
Member
We’re also slowing down our first wave as well. That’s very good news
I’m just waiting to here Robert at WX South write…” there will be sheets of ice falling from the sky”
iGRXY
Member
The NAM is showing a taller ridge at 36 with the wave definitely sheared out more. That little tid bit about the GFS not handling the taller western ridge looks to be a big issue in its evolution.
NCSNOW
Member
Eps mean and control keeps ticking up. 6+ solid now mby.
We use to use a rule on phased ns and ss miller A scenerios that we never wanted it to close off till after it reached the Mississippi River down along Gulf coast. Reason was better chance to keep it up along SE coast, not inland coastal plain.
Cant use that rule here. But you see why you root for that if theres ever a pure miller A from a phasing of NS and SS energy.
Seeing this backside changeover back to snow on everything east of apps. Cant remember last time thats ever happened in NC
We use to use a rule on phased ns and ss miller A scenerios that we never wanted it to close off till after it reached the Mississippi River down along Gulf coast. Reason was better chance to keep it up along SE coast, not inland coastal plain.
Cant use that rule here. But you see why you root for that if theres ever a pure miller A from a phasing of NS and SS energy.
Seeing this backside changeover back to snow on everything east of apps. Cant remember last time thats ever happened in NC
February 2014 had that changeover back to snow for the western half of the state and many areas along the I-77 corridor from Charlotte north got absolutely plastered by it. January 2016 did though on a much smaller scale as well.
Friday system off the EC is our 50/50 displaced south of the typical MA position.
iGRXY
Member
NAM is pretty Far East at 45. Popping a weaker surface low further into east Texas this run
Cary_Snow95
Member
He's referring to the shortwave entering the PNW
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Definitely less amped and sheared so far. TPV is also further west so far
iGRXY
Member
NAM is looking even better so far. 850’s a little further south at 51 as well.
Really classic look for the east coast, late Baja injection but that’s what we want, balancing act.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Energy is feeling quite the tug from the Baja cutoff. Notice the comma tail streamer forming. That's new
What happens with the Baja. Does that help us out??