Lights out for us. ?View attachment 104721View attachment 104722
Lets not forget about latent heating; maybe some areas can be saved from that.
Lights out for us. ?View attachment 104721View attachment 104722
Really can't nail that down yet. Need to get mesoscale model range..should have a lot better idea tomorrow night or Friday by 12z. It's almost inevitable that below 85 will either be an all mix or a change over after a front end couple hours of snow. Once u get above 85 then there's a better chance of snow hanging on longer. But there's a lot to work out b4 we will know and even then it won't be 100% guaranteed. The only real forecast I'd feel confident about would be sw mountains of NC getting buried.How long do you think us in the upstate hold on to the snow before we start mixing?
Explanation as to why models have trended better:
Can you post a 12z to 18z eps comparison snow mean please?View attachment 104726
It’s further south as well.
That entire pair of panels looks like the one crazy ens member we always say we want.
Will shall see, the low is on shore now, the models will pick it up and will see which direction the models will go?Smidgen south I see
Explanation as to why models have trended better:
I initially read it that way as well. But a taller ridge should limit the waves initial digging when it comes on shore. In fact the 00z NAM initialized with a much stronger western ridgeIsn’t slower bad ?