• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Robert West said:
Got to agree, it’s not like it’s shifting NW 48 hours before the storm.
Click to expand...
True. When you account for that, congrats Seattle.

Seriously though, it's hard to reverse once things start amping. Never say never, but it's hard.
 
ryan1234 said:
Good lord, some of you do really do have this “ride or die” mentality when it comes to following each model run and grasping at straws when it comes to hugging one suite. I get it, we all want snow. But it’s Tuesday and this storm is still 6 days away. This is why it’s never good to be in the bullseye 6-7 days out, also. Still a long ways to go on this system. Throwing in the towel at this is semi ridiculous. Chill out and if by tomorrow night Thursday things are trending good or bad, depending on your location, then you all start preparing to cliff dive. Until then, relax.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not throwing in any towel but have you watched how the composite models have evolved this in the last 36hrs? Whether you want to call it a trend or just model-learning as we get closer to the event you can sure see what's happening and how the models are closing in towards a single solution.
 
Besides the shortwave being slightly held back and stronger on this run, the biggest difference I saw was the speed of the northern stream energy above the ULL. It is noticeably slower at hour 114 which delays the final phase some and allows the low to move farther inland. However, the GFS does have a progressive bias, so this result could be overdone as well. We shall see, but there is no need to panic what so ever. We still have multiple days of headaches ahead and many trends yet to see.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh114_trend.gif
 
ryan1234 said:
Good lord, some of you do really do have this “ride or die” mentality when it comes to following each model run and grasping at straws when it comes to hugging one suite. I get it, we all want snow. But it’s Tuesday and this storm is still 6 days away. This is why it’s never good to be in the bullseye 6-7 days out, also. Still a long ways to go on this system. Throwing in the towel at this is semi ridiculous. Chill out and if by tomorrow night Thursday things are trending good or bad, depending on your location, then you all start preparing to cliff dive. Until then, relax.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think of it like this...for days 7 down to 4 (days prior to the storm), it doesn't have to be just right, but you want it going in the right direction. This isn't going in the right direction except for some in the NC mountains and up into Western VA. Things can still change, but at day 4, we don't want the Titanic moving toward the iceberg.
 
Seems clear a lot of places will see all precip types. Snow sleet freezing rain. For that reason it may be hard to get historic snow totals.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CaryWx said:
Not throwing in any towel but have you watched how the composite models have evolved this in the last 36hrs? Whether you want to call it a trend or just model-learning as we get closer to the event you can sure see what's happening and how the models are closing in towards a single solution.
Click to expand...

No, because I’ve watched models do this in the past only to hone back into the original solution like what was being shown yesterday. I’ve also seen storms completely go poof and come back 48 hours beforehand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ryan1234 said:
No, because I’ve watched models do this in the past only to hone back into the original solution like what was being shown yesterday. I’ve also seen storms completely go poof and come back 48 hours beforehand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yes I've watched a few too but betting this storm will not go poof and come back again 2 days before H-hour. The trends have similarly (to varying wobbles and degrees) all gone in one direction. Now if they were back and forth from run to run you might be on to something. Sure, it could de-intensify, flatten and move more off the coast but not with what is happening to the shortwave diving out of Canada at the moment.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While the 18z GEFS is slighty more amped, it actually looked slightly better in the 50/50 region, let’s hope this is the start of something
Click to expand...
I do not like the fact that the GFS has trended towards more seperation between the 50/50 feature and the energy dropping down from canada. We need something to prevent it from cutting as hard as it as at the moment.


gfs_z500_vort_atl_fh114_trend.gif
 
If you rely on each individual run then you are in for a LONG week. It will shift and sway back and forth MANY times before Thursday, let alone Sunday. Ensembles are the best now and once the SW gets onshore and is sampled better, then you can start focusing in on the operational runs...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While the 18z GEFS is slighty more amped, it actually looked slightly better in the 50/50 region, let’s hope this is the start of something View attachment 104009
Click to expand...
Problem is, the 50/50 and the storm wave have the same amount of separation....so, it's like they both just slowed down there progress a bit. But you would need the 50/50 to be in the farther south position, while not moving the storm wave (so they are closer together) to get the benefit
 
griteater said:
Problem is, the 50/50 and the storm wave have the same amount of separation....so, it's like they both just slowed down there progress a bit. But you would need the 50/50 to be in the farther south position, while not moving the storm wave (so they are closer together) to get the benefit
Click to expand...

A slightly weaker southern upper low would fix a lot of these issues...why does everything have to cut off and dig to San Deigo. ?
 
ryan1234 said:
Good lord, some of you do really do have this “ride or die” mentality when it comes to following each model run and grasping at straws when it comes to hugging one suite. I get it, we all want snow. But it’s Tuesday and this storm is still 6 days away. This is why it’s never good to be in the bullseye 6-7 days out, also. Still a long ways to go on this system. Throwing in the towel at this is semi ridiculous. Chill out and if by tomorrow night Thursday things are trending good or bad, depending on your location, then you all start preparing to cliff dive. Until then, relax.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

True. Lots of very short memories here. Remember when the Canadian first had the storm and no other model did. Then suddenly it vanished and popped up on the GFS. This is the usual dance and it ain’t for the faint of heart.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top