Cary_Snow95
Member
You want the Baja low to shear the energy a bit to help flatten the wave and prevent it from amping up
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Most of that energy gets parked and we are back on deck for round two, 3-4 days after.
iGRXY
Member
We don’t want our wave amping up until it gets into the southeast
Like a magnet
ChattaVOL
Member
Am I seeing the low on the NAM all the way into Mexico now? Last run it was in NE Texas
Cary_Snow95
Member
I wouldn't look at surface reflections as much as H5. That's just where the L marker was placed. The primary energy is in Texas
No.
The algorithm that plots the map is tricky sometimes and can place an L where there is a minimum, but doesn't reflect where the storm is. The MSLP distribution is in a similar place.
Snow breaking out in n ga and upstate sc at 78
So correct me if I’m wrong but we want a less amped (more suppressed and thus weaker?) low that will head towards the gulf instead of an amped (stronger?) low that’s able to cut North? But not too suppressed to where all the precip is light or too far south right?
ChattaVOL
Member
That's what was throwing me. Thanks!
Cary_Snow95
Member
iGRXY
Member
More sheared and slightly SE at 72
Cary_Snow95
Member
Correct. We don't have to worry about to much suppression. That ship sailed long ago.
Show really getting started at 84. Doesn’t have the snow line as south as the euro, up n of clt but ice down to cola.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Atlanta is too warm on the NAM, rain
Cary_Snow95
Member
Low sitting down on the Pan Handle at 84. Much further south compared to the GFS
This will be the most significant Eastern US winter storm season to date. Sharp hook around central GA through inshore Delmarva. Please plan accordingly.
Avalanche
Member
The NE HP looks further east.
iGRXY
Member
Don’t look at temp profiles at all yet on the NAM. Just look at the overall trend and the NAM continues the weaker more sheared trend. It also has our LP riding the gulf. That’s going to change the landscape of what types of precip we see once we get in the shorter range
Snowflowxxl
Member
sigwx
Member
Don’t get NAM’d fellas. Do t look at profiles but L placement and Wedges.
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Deleted member 609
Guest
Little concerned the nam is showing no snow south of Charlotte
Wouldn’t take much for a lot more of us to be seeing snow with this one on the back side of the low. A lot of the temps in mid 30’s in North Ms. and Alabama.
ChattaVOL
Member
So with this NAM run what would cause North Alabama and South East Tennesse to get in on this? For it to slow down? or for the track to shift south even more?
It’s beautiful 
Nam joins the club with the front band. If I’m in the upstate I’m loving this
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Kind of surprised the NAM is so warm. Warning shot for much of N GA?
It’s worth noting that from what I’ve seen, the hrrr handles front end thumps and column crashing far better then the nam
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yes whether people want to believe it or not. NAM is good a sniffing temps regardless if it’s long range or not. Obviously it will get better as we get closer but still
Don’t be concerned, just look at overall trends. If the nam is warm inside 48hrs then you can be worried
iGRXY
Member
Yeah looking at temp profiles on the NAM right now is useless. It is really good at what it does during CAD events but that isn’t until around hr 48.
Snownut
Member
Somebody across Upstate WNC is gonna get Buried. Probably some 10-12" totals somewhere across there
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iGRXY
Member
Ehhhh. NAM temp profiles aren’t really accurate until we get around hr 48. Anything beyond that and it loses its value fast
Highlands to Hendersonville gonna get 5” before the storm even moves in..
