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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wow, is that a 3 contour closed ULL near Memphis at hour 84 on the NAM?

View attachment 104759
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Thankfully much less amped than the GFS
gfs_z500a_us_16.png
 
Agreed; don't worry about snow/ice lines on the long range NAM. But, I do notice our parent High goes from a 1040 at hr 66
namconus_ref_frzn_us_46.png


to a 1034 over Eastern NY at 81

namconus_ref_frzn_us_51.png


BIG movement there, but then you see the 50/50 doing it's job at 84 with the high basically stationary.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


That high is in a pretty good spot, maybe a tic stronger (1036) or so and a half tick West would be nice. We want the high to stay anchored as long as possible. Our Low went from roughly Mobile at 81 to Dothan at 84 - ideally we want the to track a little more East towards Jacksonville or Sav. Not a bad look though, and again, the long range NAM will change a lot.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Agreed; don't worry about snow/ice lines on the long range NAM. But, I do notice our parent High goes from a 1040 at hr 66
namconus_ref_frzn_us_46.png


to a 1034 over Eastern NY at 81

namconus_ref_frzn_us_51.png


BIG movement there, but then you see the 50/50 doing it's job at 84 with the high basically stationary.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


That high is in a pretty good spot, maybe a tic stronger (1036) or so and a half tick West would be nice. We want the high to stay anchored as long as possible. Our Low went from roughly Mobile at 81 to Dothan at 84 - ideally we want the to track a little more East towards Jacksonville or Sav. Not a bad look though, and again, the long range NAM will change a lot.
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Looked like the HP slid east. Didnt want to see that.
 
Nice thoughts on the NAM from ILMRoss on American.
I thought the most consequential thing that the NAM with the "new data" showed was a wholesale shift of our shortwave 50 miles to the east as early as 36 hours into the run. I like using the NAM as an appetizer model for a lot of reasons and one is that I think it can tip the hand of the rest of the models on what the trend de jour of the suite is going to be. I think we're cooking with propane if more models show this shift east with our energy.

I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wow, is that a 3 contour closed ULL near Memphis at hour 84 on the NAM?

View attachment 104759
Click to expand...
This is the one you want to track as it determines the temp profiles. Course the surface is gonna get all the energy at somepoint, become primary. The time and location of the handoff is the million dollar question we are trying to answer. Then the rest can be set in stone: ptypes, transition lines, accums etc
 
Ollie Williams said:
Nice thoughts on the NAM from ILMRoss on American.
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I’ve said this many times but the HRRR under 36/even the RAP has done a good job on winter storms the last 2 years, HRRR seemingly sees column crashing better, for ex that SC upstate snow last February that the nam dropped the ball on, but the HRRR showed snow with associated with column crashing/dynamic cooling
 
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