Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[packfan98]

The GEFS Mean is going to be pretty to look at for NC. Too bad it counts everything frozen as snow.

 

[BullCityWx]

If you rely on each individual run then you are in for a LONG week. It will shift and sway back and forth MANY times before Thursday, let alone Sunday. Ensembles are the best now and once the SW gets onshore and is sampled better, then you can start focusing in on the operational runs...

This is clearly everybody’s first storm and they’ve forgot the basics. I understand that some folks have to fight with some climo but people making sweeping statements is just ridiculous. You can say what you’re saying until you are blue in the face but most of them won’t listen.

 

[accu35]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Storm5]

Need that 50/50 further SW


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Beautiful and this is showing only 10:1. Much better than that especially west.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The GEFS Mean is going to be pretty to look at for NC. Too bad it counts everything frozen as snow.

Weathebell's maps don't. Weathermodels.com does, but I don't see as many people posting their maps anymore.

 

[BullCityWx]

View attachment 104014

ITS ALL OVER FRO. ITS ALL OVER.

These ensemble runs continue to show these OPs are too amped. People need to get out of their feelings.

 

[Flotown]

Can

View attachment 104010
Y’all worried and every frame has you covered

U show earlier frame?

 

[Arcc]

If the wave wraps up low as it is transfering, it’s pretty much over for a chunk of us west of Atlanta and south of TN besides some parting snow showers.

 

[Jessy89]

Essambles still hold a lot of weight right now. And from the essambles we still have a legit winter storm.


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[Chazwin]

This continues to become more a Miller B mixed bag, no matter how amped we get, we’re not escaping the ice/sleet in NC (especially the Piedmont) with how cold the CAD that gets entrenched is, absolutely ridiculous cold air with this CADView attachment 104002View attachment 104001View attachment 104003View attachment 104004View attachment 104005

This is the biggest reason that continue to have my doubts on a far inland track. Every model run continues to strengthen the CAD and its consistent on putting temperatures in the low to mid 20s across the Piedmont and Upstate… at some point something has to give

 

[Storm5]

18z euro up next


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[iGRXY]

GEFS individual runs continue to show more snow and less amped solutions compared to the op

 

[Snowfan]

 

[CaryWx]

It's a hard habit to break ignoring the stoic walk of the operational runs. I'll admit they've not had great support from the ensembles for this storm so that's a positive thought.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS has been gettin better....Op has been getting worse. Who wins....?‍

 

[BullCityWx]

This has improved every run today but by all means, y’all continue to go off.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

ITS ALL OVER FRO. ITS ALL OVER.

These ensemble runs continue to show these OPs are too amped. People need to get out of their feelings.

I'm not saying this isn't going to be a significant event along the 85 corridor. But it doesn't matter how amped it ends up being if the 50/50 pulls out too quick and the CAD high retreats the storm is going to pull inland and screw up thermals all the way back to 85. This simply just isn't looking like the huge snowstorm it had the potential to be and more of a mixed bag event. Which 95% of our storms are, it's just climo.

 

[Arcc]

GEFS has been gettin better....Op has been getting worse. Who wins....?‍View attachment 104018

Now if we can keep trending west and get the transfer into the gulf….