Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[CaryWx]

ITS ALL OVER FRO. ITS ALL OVER.

These ensemble runs continue to show these OPs are too amped. People need to get out of their feelings.

Wait Bull aren't we supposed to be in touch with our feelings or something?

 

[griteater]

Bull is ready to drop the hammer on us (me included). The stronger wave actually creates more confluent flow into PA/NY, so it makes sense that the damming is getting stronger. It was just kind of shocking seeing that wave run the apps like it did

 

[Snownut]

I'm not saying this isn't going to be a significant event along the 85 corridor. But it doesn't matter how amped it ends up being if the 50/50 pulls out too quick and the CAD high retreats the storm is going to pull inland and screw up thermals all the way back to 85. This simply just isn't looking like the huge snowstorm it had the potential to be and more of a mixed bag event. Which 95% of our storms are, it's just climo.

When you speak of this, Just what areas are you speaking of? More Ice than Snow South of 85? Still Mostly Snow North of 85? A mixed bag across the Whole Board?

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[BullCityWx]

Bull is ready to drop the hammer on us (me included). The stronger wave actually creates more confluent flow into PA/NY, so it makes sense that the damming is getting stronger. It was just kind of shocking seeing that wave run the apps like it did

Well some folks get a pass due to a long history ??.

Now if the ensembles jump then I’ll be worried.

 

[Hypsometric]

This is clearly everybody’s first storm and they’ve forgot the basics. I understand that some folks have to fight with some climo but people making sweeping statements is just ridiculous. You can say what you’re saying until you are blue in the face but most of them won’t listen.

So true. These “trends” may well be a head fake and we won’t know until the energy has been sampled. Wild shifts can happen at the last minute with northern stream energy not properly sampled (see Dec. 2010). All the “trends” away from a storm suddenly vanished when the energy was sampled. There is nothing to say the 18z ICON and about half of all the ensemble members from all suites aren’t correct with the flatter wave solution.

And FWIW the past few runs the GFS is slowly ticking west towards that upper low, it won’t take much more to see a dramatic move towards that ICON solution with more interaction and a flatter wave IMO. One thing we know for sure - this ain’t done moving and shifting and making us all feel dumb at some point lol.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Bull is ready to drop the hammer on us (me included). The stronger wave actually creates more confluent flow into PA/NY, so it makes sense that the damming is getting stronger. It was just kind of shocking seeing that wave run the apps like it did

At this point couldn't a Miller B actually be better for the 85 corridor instead of an amped low cruising across south GA into the coastal plain?Seems if the parent low stays weak west of the apps and doesn't hit us with a warm nose and the new low pops far enough se that we may avoid the majority of its warm nose as well? We may sacrifice some precip in the transfer though. Am I out in left field with that or not?

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Chazwin]

Obviously, this is a different set up, but if anyone can remember the January 2016 storm, a number of models including the GFS were insistent on driving the low right into the heart of a fairly healthy CAD, then over the last 48 hours it was almost like the models realized the low could not go there so it started dropping it a bit further south and east. Now we’re seeing an even stronger CAD set up being shown yet it’s still trying to drive the low right into the heart. Now I say this as someone who absolutely doesn’t expect this to remain an all snow event outside of the mountains and adjacent foothills, but I really think that if the CAD is as strong as being shown, the low will take a track further east than what the GFS is showing

 

[griteater]

Well some folks get a pass due to a long history ??.

Now if the ensembles jump then I’ll be worried.

There's no doubt I get a little trigger happy with NW trend stuff, and we've seen things switch back at this range for sure....just didn't like what I was seeing today when we had such an excellent mix of solutions yesterday

 

[BullCityWx]

There's no doubt I get a little trigger happy with NW trend stuff, and we've seen things switch back at this range for sure....just didn't like what I was seeing today when we had such an excellent mix of solutions yesterday

And trust me, I’m also concerned but this makes me feel much more at ease.

 

[mjscott30]

If I could make a humble request, that when you post maps, you include AL. I know that for many of us in AL, snow is a longshot, but we enjoy looking at weenie maps, too. Thanks and may we all see a flake or two.

 

[BHS1975]

At this point couldn't a Miller B actually be better for the 85 corridor instead of an amped low cruising across south GA into the coastal plain?Seems if the parent low stays weak west of the apps and doesn't hit us with a warm nose and the new low pops far enough se that we may avoid the majority of its warm nose as well? We may sacrifice some precip in the transfer though. Am I out in left field with that or not?

Miller Bs are mix city for Wake Co and will dry slot the Charlotte area so not Ideal. Miller A all day everyday.


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[Chazwin]

At this point couldn't a Miller B actually be better for the 85 corridor instead of an amped low cruising across south GA into the coastal plain?Seems if the parent low stays weak west of the apps and doesn't hit us with a warm nose and the new low pops far enough se that we may avoid the majority of its warm nose as well? We may sacrifice some precip in the transfer though. Am I out in left field with that or not?

I personally will always take my chances with a Miller B or A/B hybrid than a straight up Miller A. Like you said it ultimately matters where that parent low transfers to the coastal… the further south the better… in a strong CAD set up, a transfer further south would be more likely

 

[BelmontWX79]

Here are the individual GFS Ens members for precip type. Many are showing snow and decent snow at that over most of North Carolina and Upstate. This should pull some of you from the cliff...or not.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

When you speak of this, Just what areas are you speaking of? More Ice than Snow South of 85? Still Mostly Snow North of 85? A mixed bag across the Whole Board?

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Based in current guidance I'd say with the CAD as strong as it is we're getting hit regardless. But I'd say just south of 85 would be more Sleet than anything. Once you get down close to lower upstate/northern midlands more zr for sure.

Obviously, this is a different set up, but if anyone can remember the January 2016 storm, a number of models including the GFS were insistent on driving the low right into the heart of a fairly healthy CAD, then over the last 48 hours it was almost like the models realized the low could not go there so it started dropping it a bit further south and east. Now we’re seeing an even stronger CAD set up being shown yet it’s still trying to drive the low right into the heart. Now I say this as someone who absolutely doesn’t expect this to remain an all snow event outside of the mountains and adjacent foothills, but I really think that if the CAD is as strong as being shown, the low will take a track further east than what the GFS is showing

I think Feb 2014 was like that maybe as well. The problem with the 18Z op was once it popped the new surface low along the coast the high was retreating due to the 50/50 pulling out and wasn't trying to plow into a CAD.

 

[Chazwin]

Miller Bs are mix city for Wake Co and will dry slot the Charlotte area so not Ideal. Miller A all day everyday.


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As Webb has shown on his maps, CLT metro actually does better with Miller Bs than Miller As

 

[iGRXY]

I’m currently in the car so I’m trying to see from my phone but based on the individual members, the OP is the furthest north solution of any of the individual ensemble members. The majority of the ensembles are almost all snow in the Piedmont and upstate.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That was one of the best GEFS runs for nc thru any point this winter or the last 3. Everyone take a breath. Snow mean keeps ticking up. Will there be mixing issues? Maybe. But a 6 hour warming window and then back down to the 20s is fine by me. We have a significant storm on the way

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Things I have learned by just living in the CAD regions heart is that strong cold heavy CAD is extremely hard to move. While the Gfs exact track would result in change overs to rain for eastern NC I have a very hard time seeing 22 degrees turn to 40 and rain for central NC areas. Things I have also learned are that the warm nose issue is VERY real and very much in play most of the time.. I simply believe more areas would see a longer period of either sleet or freezing rain than currently depicted. I also don’t believe this storm is going to cut as much as the GFS is showing with such a dense cold airmass in place and being resupplied by a banana high above us. While I do believe sleet and freezing rain can certainly and will certainly be a problem for some I see a much larger area of ice problems then currently thought by afternoon model runs.

 

[SimeonNC]

Can someone pull up past GEFS runs as well, apparently they are trending west as well.