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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

BelmontWX79 said:
Here are the individual GFS Ens member for precip type. Many are showing snow and decent snow at that over Most of North Carolina and Upstate. This should pull some of you from the cliff...or not.View attachment 104026
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I thought they looked dang good. We’ll see if the trend holds with them. I think I saw two members as inland as the OP.

I’m pulling for y’all down there, almost all my family is in Gaston County and I think it’s been since 2018 when they had an event. Btw, the last time I was home, I came through Belmont and couldn’t believe the changes on the south side of town.
 
griteater said:
Miller B's are known for having suspect precip output thru the piedmont....but it varies of course. You want to see a healthy storm with a good moisture fetch. Dec 2002 ice storm was a Miller B and had a LOT of precip with it
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Ugh. Dont bring that catostrophe up. It was the coldest storm at the surface ive been in beside the 93 Blizzard up in the mtns. Your right 1.0-1.5
The qpf maps for this one are the same all day, save the last icon. Even It was still well over .5
 
SimeonNC said:
A met Im in a discord chat in is claiming that the ensembles have been trending west over the past few runs. If this this true then that might be concerning.

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
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Someone here said totals have been going up , which if true generally means it’s amping more in the mean I’m sure someone can confirm for us.
 
BullCityWx said:
I thought they looked dang good. We’ll see if the trend holds with them. I think I saw two members as inland as the OP.

I’m pulling for y’all down there, almost all my family is in Gaston County and I think it’s been since 2018 when they had an event. Btw, the last time I was home, I came through Belmont and couldn’t believe the changes on the south side of town.
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Yep 2018 was it. I've lived in Belmont for almost 15 years now and yes its changed a heck of a lot. Real Estate prices here have went through the roof!
 
Well said from red tagger in MA

"to put this into perspective, the OP GFS has the low much farther west than the farthest west GEFS member… which is already an outlier

the vast majority of the tracks are near perfect, and it seems as if the real threat to this storm is a missed phase over the Rockies ala the ICON"
 
As you can see here, the GEFS shows a massive storm in Central and Western NC with good snow also for NGa and upper SC
1642528800-koJ1AjrMCfA.png
 
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