Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[packfan98]

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How did the cold press look?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Suppressed solutions continue to appear on GEFS which puts my mind at ease. Can we say the holy words “We toss!” for 18z OP??? Lol

Webber makes the argument that the GFS may not be wrong.

 

[jeremyt]

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Is that a tad slower and less amped? Still trying to learn.

 

[rburrel2]

Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.

 

[TheBatman]

Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.

So what would that mean on the surface?? Low further south??

 

[Arcc]

Webber makes the argument that the GFS may not be wrong.

I tend to agree. Trust the GEFS if you dare. I’d rather throw out the whole model suite.

 

[Shawn]

So what would that mean on the surface?? Low further south??

Less amperage, less warm air advection, slightly further south track. Since it only runs to hour 90, 00z run more important.

 

[accu35]

Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.

Which is good I’m assuming

 

[rburrel2]

So what would that mean on the surface?? Low further south??

Yea, more positive tilted at 90hr would in theory mean it takes longer to go neutral and then negative tilt… mean low pressure should develop a little further south and move a little farther east before making the turn.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

How did the cold press look?

850s we’re warmer, but 925s and sfc were the same, and slightly cooler at sfc across the SE. probably signaling a run that would have resulted in more sleet and freezing rain

 

[ATLwxfan]

No we don’t toss because the OP definitely a scenario. However we don’t lean heavily on the OP either because the essambles still hold a lot of weight.


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At what range do you start to focus on the op run? When there is better agreement in ensemble members?


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[Arcc]

Another thing, some times in the past I’ve noticed the GEFS to almost lag a run. Watch 0z to see if the members look more like the 18z OP.

 

[BullCityWx]

Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.

Well now the gang is definitely all here!

 

[Shawn]

That 18z Euro is not just a little warmer at 850, its a warning shot and quite a big change vs 12z.

 

[Avalanche]

850s we’re warmer, but 925s and sfc were the same, and slightly cooler at sfc across the SE. probably signaling a run that would have resulted in more sleet and freezing rain View attachment 104055View attachment 104056View attachment 104054View attachment 104057

850's still look supportive.

 

[Arcc]

Which is good I’m assuming

Us in AL, MS and west GA need to maintain that hybrid look or more amped farther west track of the low after the transfer. The 18z GFS was a dead smack Miller B which really hurts us.

 

[Hypsometric]

18z Euro continues the trend of being tugged more by the upper low (ala the ICON).

 

[Spurs up]

Mean slowly increasing here which is awesome.

That 18z Euro is not just a little warmer at 850, its a warning shot and quite a big change vs 12z.

more ice correct?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I’m interested in euro control and it’s 18z ensembles

 

[accu35]

Us in AL, MS and west GA need to maintain that hybrid look or more amped farther west track of the low after the transfer. The 18z GFS was a dead smack Miller B which really hurts us.

Yeah and the gefs was in our favor definitely. Time will tell soon