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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

GFS has the central midlands around 40-44F during height of the precipitation. Hoping in it's accuracy. Not holding my breath though. Models looking slightly warmer over all; maybe we can luck out as rain.
 
Robert West said:
GFS definitely is faster
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Yeah, the transfer away from the primary low happened faster too which allowed for more winter weather on the southern side. 6z looked like there wasn’t as much of a cold push with weaker high pressure, so overal there were some pros and cons but a net result that was better for the SE than the previous run. Hopefully the 0z was a bit of a blip and we can get more favorable trends today.
 
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Lots of fine tuning to come today and tomorrow. Mesoscale models coming into range later will be paramount on depicting thermal profiles and gradient lines where 15 miles will separate heavy snow to a dangerous mix to rain. And even that's gonna bounce around tunnel go time. Low placement and transfer is starting to become clearer at least. Great breakdown over night by everyone and thank you!
 
btw WPC did this tonight:

"
The WPC medium range forecast was based on an initial blend of the
12/18Z deterministic guidance favoring the ECMWF somewhat, adding
the CMC ensemble mean by day 4 with its favorable low position in
the East and increasing the proportion of the EC ensemble mean for
the latter part of the period as well, to help temper minor
variations in model guidance."
 
NWS in KILM, after last nights Runs are now calling for FRZNRN.. We'll see what they say after this mornings Runs..
 
Robert West said:
View attachment 104888
Really not trying to kill a mood, but it's hard to ignore this on the GEFS.

Everything except the icon has trended warmer over the last 6 hours.
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Yup that is getting concerning for sure being it’s still a LONG ways to go, there can and will be many changes coming! The question is “will they be good or bad changes”?


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This is from the CMC last night at 00Z ****THIS IS NOT THIS STORM BUT ONE IT HAS NEXT FRIDAY***** The reason I posted it is this is the track we want to see this weekends storm trend to, however at this point it seems rather hopeless.....this weekend storm is gonna cut up I 95 and literally rain on many parades.....

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh198-216.gif
 
Latest from GSP

The current thinking is that most of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the
Charlotte metro area will see some degree of warm nosing to undercut
potential snow totals and generate more sleet, with more freezing
rain especially likely at times along and southeast of I-85. 850 to
700 mb frontogenesis will likely sharpen up along and east of the
mountains to enhance precipitation rates Sunday morning. The phasing
process of this southern system back into the northern stream may
accelerate the low passage. That could be a slight limiting factor,
but it may not matter much given the otherwise excellent potential
for significant wintry accumulations across the region as it stands.
 
raine1212 said:
I’m a newbie and learning so please forgive our local forecasters in Augusta Ga said all rain, so I guess we are in the clear.
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Your local forecaster is apparently all-in on the GFS. Augusta MAY be in "the clear" but there is model support on the NAM and ICON for at least some freezing rain. Not to mention there are still 3 full days away for things to trend better or worse.
 
First call, thinking I-20 and north especially has the chance of significant ice accumulation. Then as you get towards the NC/SC border towards 85 the chances of snow and sleet accumulation pick up significantly, then in WNC/northern counties of the upstate and VA, there could be some bigtime snow accumulation. I have a small circle for FGEN snow band potential 2BE44500-0EB1-40E1-93C4-C95075D2FD6A.jpeg
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Your local forecaster is apparently all-in on the GFS. Augusta MAY be in "the clear" but there is model support on the NAM and ICON for at least some freezing rain. Not to mention there are still 3 full days away for things to trend better or worse.
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Thank you so much for your information, I’ll prepare just in case.
 
Looking over the the meteograms with kcae as the target, noticed over the last few runs of the american models; we end up right on the edge during the heart of precipitation... even the nam wants around 32F...

Being right on the edge at 32F tends to not end up in major ice accumulation, especially in heavy precipitation due to latent heating (heat given off as water forms a solid in this case). The mean temperature is around 35F (but this could be skewed by the most warm model GFS)

KCAE alluded to a changeover to rain even in the central Midlands in their latest forecast discussion.

Good signs that the surface is warming up on the NAM around here, but we are still days away.
 
If I were y’all I wouldn’t worry too much about the thermals of the global models right now especially the GFS. Yeah the EURO was a bit warmer for some areas but let’s see if the 06z goes back to cooler. I really wouldn’t even look T the NAM thermals either,because it’s not quite in range yet.


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Do any of the EPS members show a full on cutter? Last night's EURO run is concerning with the initial low hanging on so long and so far NW.
 
I wouldn’t worry about the GEFS or really any ensemble spread now that we are getting under day 4. CAD is very hard for ops and ensembles to pick up in the medium range and the smoothing of the mean gets really bad in ensembles for CAD in the short range. Also note that models always try and move the HP out faster and erode CAD faster than reality. Really want to start looking at the shorter range stuff more now anyways.
 
6z Euro. Better than 0z.
snku_acc.us_ma.png

fram_acc.us_ma.png
 
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