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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

BullCityWx said:
Can anyone remember a similar storm where the ensembles of both models were in near agreement but virulently disagreed with their OPs who sorta agreed with each other? I surely can’t.
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No, but tonight's 0z run should help us determine if the OP runs are seeing something that the ensembles are not. Let's see who blinks first.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah this run has a weaker low pressure around the gulf coast View attachment 104075
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The highs in the 18z also show slight improvement here. Splitting hairs but the main high near the great lakes is a half tick west and looks like it is trying to open another isobar, ditto for the Iowa high. Then a 1029 opens over N WI. Not a huge difference but could be important for cold press nonetheless, especially with the low a tad weaker and half a tick South.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This change at H5 might be the reason for colder/snowier, notice the energy is slightly more sheared/stretched from that cutoff near California. View attachment 104083View attachment 104087View attachment 104084View attachment 104085View attachment 104086
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4 inch snow mean in the Midlands of SC?? WOW! Lets hope the EPS and the GEFS is on to something with much less amped up low.If so, maybe the I-20 corrdior areas in SC could be back in the game for signifcant snowfall and Ice may not be a problem at all. One can hope.
 
iGRXY said:
Didn’t grit say the control was better in the long range anyways? I may be confusing him and it’s the other way around but I think I remember him saying the control was better around the day 8-10+ time frame
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The paper I referenced had the chart showing Control was slightly more accurate days 6 to 11, Op was slightly more accurate days 2-4
 
Just really catching up but wanted to highlight the GEFS mean. This thing is GORGEOUS for everybody not in AL or MS! Most of us would take that look anyday and run to the store and back with a grin. I agree the GFS trend today has not been good but there are so many other great looking runs out there. We have certainly seen this behavior from the GFS OP before.1641941242655.png
 
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If the latest Euro, CMC, and JMA predictions for the MJO are right (I haven’t seen a new forecast from GEFS or CFS since 1/5), the MJO will be near if not inside the COD at the time of the upcoming storm threat. Keep in mind that should ATL get a major sleet or ice from this, it may very well be when the MJO is near or inside the circle just like all 8 of the ones since 1979.
 
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