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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Hypsometric said:
I am not 100% sure, but I believe I have a memory of the op Euro (and maybe the op GFS) refusing to bring precipitation very far inland with this event up to almost verification - and I think the ensembles were farther west. I am pretty sure about the ops not being far enough west, but I can't recall for sure if the ensembles were better. But I know this went on for quite a few runs close to the event (inside D5 I'm fairly certain). Does anyone else recall this?

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If my memory serves me correct the Op GFS did start coming further west about 48 hrs or so out, but the Op Euro never bit… I remember the Raleigh office was having to scramble to get warning out because this storm was coming in during a time when most locations away from the coast had gone over 36 hours below freezing and the roadways were ice cold… another thought is this map shows just why I don’t prefer Miller A. My house just about 10 miles to the west of the most western extent of that 1 inch line near the Union/Anson County line… I’ve been on the wrong side of that sharp gradient too many times and just as many times be raining in a Miller A while 10 miles to my NW the ground is white
 
Ollie Williams said:
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Thank you. So, this has 1/3 of members with wintry, a rare run for KSAV. The last time I’ve seen a run like this may have been as far back as 4 years ago.

Many of the 17 are small (under 0.1” liquid), but getting even a trace of wintry occurs during only about 1 in 4 winters at most. Also, there are three within 0.16-0.21” liquid (significant hits) and even a legit major hit from one at 0.6” liquid, which would be a once every couple of decades type of hit no matter the form of precip.
 
8miles said:
Can you do Statesville?
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The ground will get white there but certainly not safe from mixing. Neither is Mount Airy at the moment. I’ve spent a lot of time with warm noses and it’s very interesting to see how they “surge” north out of i40 but “bounce” back and fourth west to east near I-77. Of course Statesville being near both likely means totals will vary in the north vs south. Warm noses seem to struggle punching west vs north for some reason? Maybe the mountains play a part but Sparta and Wilkesboro seem to stay snow a little longer than Danville, Virginia sometimes too.
 
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