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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

griteater said:
From 06z Euro.

First image is dewpoints as the precip is moving into N GA - this is what good damming looks like with below zero and single digit dewpoints in VA.

Second image is sfc temperatures 12 hours later at 1pm Sunday. 23 degrees in SC Upstate / 21 in Winston/Greensboro

yMuh9Cl.png


F1iiWky.png
Click to expand...

Dews a bit too high for RDU. You need single digits at least for a good ice storm.


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Seems to me, specifically for the N Ga. CAD areas, a roughly six-hour slowdown would be preferable to allow the wedge a bit more time to become established before the best precip arrives. All else being equal of course meaning the south trends such as depicted on the ICON holds.
 
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We're still not closed off and the NAM is definitely more sheared. The big thing is how much stronger our 50/50 is this run.
 
griteater said:
From 06z Euro.

First image is dewpoints as the precip is moving into N GA - this is what good damming looks like with below zero and single digit dewpoints in VA.

Second image is sfc temperatures 12 hours later at 1pm Sunday. 23 degrees in SC Upstate / 21 in Winston/Greensboro

yMuh9Cl.png


F1iiWky.png
Click to expand...
Those low dew points in VA really are the key. I always feel that for my area and back into the eastern Upstate, the single digit dewpoints need to be coming down to right around the VA border a few hours before precip moves because as it starts and the wind is backing around from the NE, that is the source area that the NE is going to be feeding dry air in allowing for wet bulb cooling to continue. That was the reason that I knew in December 2018 that my area was gonna be on the outside looking in because dewpoints near the VA were close to 20.
 
SD said:
This is a pretty big change over the dakotas should hopefully act to delay the close and shift this E but it may mean a more north end game. Also notice the changes in the ridging over the PNW
View attachment 104919
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How much raobs are involved in this mornings run is gonna be crucial to see if the models start to really latch on to a final solution.
 
Shaggy said:
This is our last chance at seeing any shift back to the previous runs with less amping. It's a real long shot but it's the only one we got. Keep the wave open as long as possible!!!!!
Click to expand...
Basically, it should be fully sampled by 0z if we don't change a lot by then we probably aren't going to
 
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